猜測(cè):人類命運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)是2012?

Boyle argues that 2014 will be important because previous five centuries have also hinged on events that took place in the middle of their second decade. In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism. A century later 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe, which ended with the establishmentof the Hanoverians in 1715. The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815 following the defeat of Napoleon, heralding a century of relative stability across Europe. But in 1914 the First World War broke out.

　　波義爾教授解釋說(shuō)自己的推斷來(lái)源于對(duì)歷史的分析：自16世紀(jì)至今，決定未來(lái)格局的世紀(jì)大事都發(fā)生在該世紀(jì)的20年代中葉。1517年，馬丁 路德將《95條論綱》張貼在德國(guó)威登堡大教堂門上，掀起一場(chǎng)席卷歐洲的宗教改革。1618年，神圣羅馬帝國(guó)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)演變成持續(xù)30年的宗教流血沖突，歐洲主要國(guó)家紛紛卷入。1715年，英國(guó)漢諾威王朝的確立，真正穩(wěn)固了新教地位，結(jié)束宗教爭(zhēng)執(zhí)。1815年，維也納會(huì)議開(kāi)啟了19世紀(jì)歐洲相對(duì)和平的局面。1914年，第一次世界大戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)。

　　Boyle, whose book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis is published on Thursday, said: "The character of a centurybecomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?"

　　在17日出版的新書《2014———如何度過(guò)一場(chǎng)新的世界危機(jī)》中，波義爾教授指出，“一個(gè)世紀(jì)的特征會(huì)在該世紀(jì)的第2個(gè)十年內(nèi)顯露出來(lái)，我們這個(gè)世紀(jì)又怎會(huì)不同？”