一個沒有冰的北極即將到來

A study suggests that the Arctic "may be essentially ice-free during summer within 15 years."

一項研究顯示，北極“在15年內(nèi)可能會在夏季基本無冰”。

The study used statistical models to predict the future amount of Arctic ice, which suggested that the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer during the decade of the 2030s – most likely in the year 2034.

該研究利用統(tǒng)計模型預(yù)測了北極冰層的未來數(shù)量，表明在21世紀(jì)30年代的十年里，極有可能是在2034年，北極可能會在夏季無冰。

Sea ice is frozen ocean water that melts each summer, then refreezes each winter. The amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic has been steadily shrinking over the past few decades because of global warming. It reached its second-smallest level on record in 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.

海冰是凍結(jié)的海水，每年夏季融化，然后每年冬季重新凍結(jié)。由于全球變暖，過去幾十年來，北極夏季海冰的數(shù)量一直在穩(wěn)步減少。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局說，2019年北極夏季海冰水平僅次于歷史最低記錄。

Sea ice affects Arctic communities and wildlife such as polar bears and walruses, and it helps regulate the planet’s temperature by influencing the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean.

海冰影響到北極群落以及北極熊和海象等野生動物，并通過影響大氣和海洋環(huán)流來幫助調(diào)節(jié)地球溫度。

"The extent of Arctic ice is important to Arctic peoples, whose lands are being affected by increased coastal erosion," NOAA said in a statement. "Conversely, the disappearance of ice creates economic opportunities, including the opening of oil fields and new shipping routes."

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局在一份聲明中說：“北極冰層的范圍對北極地區(qū)的居民來說很重要，他們的土地正受到海岸侵蝕加劇的影響。反過來，冰的消失創(chuàng)造了經(jīng)濟機遇，包括開辟油田和新航道。”

It also affects global weather patterns.

北極冰層消失還影響到了全球的天氣模式。

The study was conducted by scientists at NOAA, the University of Washington, and the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.

這項研究是由國家海洋和大氣管理局、華盛頓大學(xué)和北卡羅萊納氣候研究所的科學(xué)家進行的。

What scientists refer to as the first "ice-free" Arctic summer year will occur when the Arctic has less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice. The thick ice sheets surrounding Canada’s Arctic islands are likely to remain for much longer, even in summer.

科學(xué)家所說的首個“無冰”北極夏季的年份將出現(xiàn)在北極海冰不足100萬平方公里的時候。加拿大北極島嶼周圍的厚冰原很可能會存留更長時間，即便是在夏季。

As the climate changes, the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Arctic air temperatures were about 3.4 degrees above average in 2019, and were the second-warmest since records began in 1900.

隨著氣候發(fā)生改變，北極的變暖速度是全球其他地區(qū)的兩倍多。2019年北極的氣溫比平均水平高出約3.4度，是1900年開始記錄以來溫度第二高的年份。

Scientists also said the results of the study indicate that there is room for improvement in sea-ice models – and that the ice may disappear even more quickly than current models suggest.

科學(xué)家還表示，研究結(jié)果表明，海冰模型還有改進余地——海冰消失的速度甚至可能比現(xiàn)有模型顯示的還要快。

"Climate models may be collectively underestimating the rate of change,” the authors write in the study.

科學(xué)家們在研究報告中寫道：“氣候模型可能都低估了變化的速度。”

The study was published in the journal Climate.

該研究發(fā)表在《氣候》期刊上。