Lex專欄：中國(guó)的電動(dòng)車之夢(mèng)

China learns techniques from the west but adapts them for the local culture. So it is with electric vehicles. Over the weekend, an industry vice-minister has said a European-style timeline to stop “sales of traditional fuel cars” will also be implemented in China. He predicted “turbulent times” as a result. He is right — there will be a scramble for scale.

中國(guó)學(xué)習(xí)西方的方法，但使其適應(yīng)國(guó)情。電動(dòng)車領(lǐng)域也不例外。工信部的一名副部長(zhǎng)在周末表示，中國(guó)也將實(shí)施歐洲那種停止“生產(chǎn)銷售傳統(tǒng)能源汽車”的時(shí)間表。他預(yù)測(cè)，這將給汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來變革“劇烈的”時(shí)期。他說得對(duì)——將會(huì)有一場(chǎng)競(jìng)相擴(kuò)大規(guī)模的角逐。

The country’s pollution problems mean it has every incentive to push electric propulsion. It also sees electrification as an opportunity for its domestic auto industry to catch up with established western carmakers. It is already the largest EV market in the world with 1.2 per cent of car sales last year, according to UBS.

中國(guó)的污染問題意味著它有強(qiáng)大動(dòng)力推動(dòng)電動(dòng)推進(jìn)技術(shù)。中國(guó)還把電氣化視為國(guó)內(nèi)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)追趕西方汽車制造商的一個(gè)契機(jī)。據(jù)瑞銀(UBS)統(tǒng)計(jì)，它已經(jīng)是世界最大的電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)，去年電動(dòng)汽車銷量占到汽車總銷量的1.2%。

China’s problem with EV economics is the same as everyone else’s. Bernstein estimates that a mid-size combustion vehicle costs $15k to produce compared with $24k for a comparable EV. The differential is down to the battery, which accounts for half of an EV’s cost. A combustion engine is just 15 per cent of a traditional car.

就電動(dòng)車經(jīng)濟(jì)性而言，中國(guó)面臨的問題與其他國(guó)家一樣。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)估計(jì)，一輛中型內(nèi)燃發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)汽車的生產(chǎn)成本為1.5萬美元，而一輛可比電動(dòng)汽車的生產(chǎn)成本達(dá)到2.4萬美元。這一差異的關(guān)鍵在于電池，其占電動(dòng)汽車成本的一半。內(nèi)燃發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)僅占傳統(tǒng)汽車成本的15%。

State subsidies helped make EVs affordable for consumers while helping manufacturers with the higher build costs. But the subsidy system is being overhauled to focus more on quotas and credits, in effect pushing more of the cost on to the industry. Carmakers have increasingly had to choose between maintaining pricing at the expense of volumes, or sacrificing margins to preserve market share.

國(guó)家補(bǔ)貼有助于讓消費(fèi)者買得起電動(dòng)汽車，同時(shí)也幫助生產(chǎn)成本較高的制造商。但是這個(gè)補(bǔ)貼制度正在進(jìn)行改革，轉(zhuǎn)向把重點(diǎn)放在配額和積分上，實(shí)際上是把更大一部分成本推給行業(yè)。制造商日益面臨一個(gè)選擇：要么為了保持定價(jià)而犧牲銷量，要么為了保持市場(chǎng)份額而犧牲利潤(rùn)率。

Meanwhile, western producers, for whom China has been a very lucrative market, have been reluctant to push battery and hybrid cars. They fear losing valuable intellectual property to their joint-venture partners. The threat of a full-on ban might yet force their hands. They do at least have the scale to finance the necessary investment.

與此同時(shí)，西方廠商(中國(guó)對(duì)它們而言一直是一個(gè)非常有利可圖的市場(chǎng))一直不愿推進(jìn)電池和混合動(dòng)力汽車。他們害怕寶貴的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)落到合資伙伴手里。硬性禁令的威脅可能會(huì)迫使他們付諸行動(dòng)。他們至少有足夠大的規(guī)模來做出必要的投資。

China’s automakers are not yet big enough to make electric cars profitably. Note that Great Wall, the carmaker that recently pronounced its interest in buying Fiat Chrysler, had to row back quickly for lack of resources. In this context, Monday’s 6 per cent pop in the shares of battery maker BYD looks premature. However, there is logic in imagining that technological advantage will in time beget scale.

中國(guó)汽車制造商的規(guī)模還不夠大，無法在盈利狀態(tài)下制造電動(dòng)汽車。值得指出的是，最近宣布有意收購菲亞特克萊斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)的汽車制造商長(zhǎng)城(Great Wall)因缺乏資源而迅速收手。就此而言，電池制造商比亞迪(BYD)股價(jià)周一6%的上漲似乎過早。不過，隨著時(shí)間推移，技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)最終將帶來規(guī)模——這種想象終究是有一些邏輯的。