BBC News:巴勒斯坦的選擇

From now on, on Israel’s response sign joint by Robert Nee, the US former state department official who’s now a council on foreign relations. Oh, Robert, thank you very much for coming in.

現(xiàn)在讓我們來討論以色列該做出怎樣回應(yīng)的問題。我們有幸請到了美國前國務(wù)院官員現(xiàn)國家外交關(guān)系委員會(huì)委員羅伯特來參與討論，非常感謝羅伯特能來參加這個(gè)節(jié)目。

Clearly, today Israel focus on the funeral, but even today the cabinet’s gathering to talk about what military’s response should be. What do you think Israel’s gonna do response to this?

顯然，現(xiàn)在以色列更加注重葬禮問題，但是即使在今天，內(nèi)閣會(huì)議還在討論軍方的回應(yīng)是什么。你認(rèn)為以色列會(huì)怎樣回應(yīng)呢?

Well, Israel is divided among themselves about what to do. There seems to be three basic options that they are considering. You know. One is going into the West Bank, trying to uproot Hamas even further than they have already. The second is going into Gaza and trying to uproot Hamas there. The third is obviously searching for the perpetrator of the kidnapping. They are definitely going to the third option. The question is what of the other two, will they choose…

以色列現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)把部隊(duì)分成了這樣幾部分。看起來有三種考慮的方案。一部分是去西岸，對哈馬斯試圖進(jìn)行更深一步的鏟除。另一部分就是去加沙，推翻哈馬斯政權(quán)。第三部分當(dāng)然是去尋找犯罪嫌疑人。問題是另外這兩種方案，他們會(huì)怎樣選擇。

And what if they do go to the Gaza, what are you talking about? Are we talking about airstrikes against militants or militants positions in Gaza? What do you think there could actually be a significant ground operation for example?

他們表明了他們將進(jìn)入加沙?，F(xiàn)在你在討論什么?我們現(xiàn)在討論的是空襲所給加沙帶來的激進(jìn)立場，或者說，你認(rèn)為這可以作為重要的地面活動(dòng)例子么?

That’s to debate. I mean, well, the question is what if, what if the objective, what if they’re going to try to do. Uh, because they push too hard, and let’s say bring about Hamas demised, there’s even more radical forces in Gaza, who would lead to great chaos. So it’s that they wanna do that. They’ve had certain understand of Hamas. They are gonna punish Hamas and punish them quite hard which I think it means they probably won’t going underground, although there’re people are arguing for it. I think we’ll see significant airstrikes against Hamas infrastructure within Gaza for sure.

那是掩飾。問題是如果他們真正那樣做了怎么辦。因?yàn)樗麄児艉苊?，可以說給哈馬斯帶來了毀滅，三個(gè)甚至更多的激進(jìn)部隊(duì)在加沙聚集，給當(dāng)?shù)鼐用駧砹司薮蟮幕靵y，這才是他們真正想要做的。他們很少去了解哈馬斯，因?yàn)樗麄冎幌霊土P哈馬斯，甚至更加殘酷。所以我認(rèn)為激進(jìn)部隊(duì)的集合可能并不代表襲擊就在陸地進(jìn)行，像很多人爭論的那樣，我認(rèn)為這將是加沙為了給哈馬斯造成巨大的空中襲擊所做的基礎(chǔ)準(zhǔn)備。

OK, what if the indications that for Mahmoud Abbas this might mean that he has to split with Hamas if he doesn’t want to feel the ruthful Israeli fire power against him too by extension.

如果這些馬哈茂德哈巴斯所表現(xiàn)出來的跡象是由于他不想看到以色列因?yàn)樽约憾斐蓱?zhàn)火連天呢?

Well, I don’t think that what he’s heading. I mean right now the Palestinian security forces have been cooperating with Israeli on the West Bank trying to find the perpetrator trying to keep security of the West Bank. But this has produced a backlash among the Palestinian people. They’re not happy. That’s not so much they aren’t so happy but the kidnapping but they don’t like the fact that Palestinians are cooperating with Israelis while Palestinians are getting killed by Israelis searching for perpetrator of this crime. So, I think in this point, Abbas, Mamhoud Abbas has very difficult chooses to break with Hamas right now, I think, completely will be unpopular because unity is popular among all Palestinians regardless their political strike, even though they might side with one side or the other, what they want more than anything is for the Palestinian in fact to come together for the West Bank and Gaza to be reunified, Palestine wants to be one political entity, and not have this in fighting.

我不認(rèn)為他在躲藏。我是說，現(xiàn)在巴勒斯坦安全部隊(duì)正在與以色列就西岸合作試圖找出犯罪者保持西岸的安全。但是卻巴勒斯坦人民之間產(chǎn)生了一條反斜線。他們并不快樂。明顯地對與以色列合作而巴勒斯坦人民卻在此過程中被殺害表示抗議。所以在這一觀點(diǎn)上，馬哈茂德哈巴斯在處理與哈馬斯關(guān)系上很難做出選擇。我認(rèn)為這個(gè)完全不能受到歡迎，因?yàn)榻y(tǒng)一整體的觀念在巴勒斯坦人民當(dāng)中非常認(rèn)同。即使他們形成不同的隊(duì)伍，所有人民最想得到的東西是完整統(tǒng)一，西岸和加沙能重新被組織起來形成一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的政府，沒有內(nèi)部斗爭。

OK, Robert. So how does this play out, I mean, it’s obviously the short term retaliation and retribution for what happened to these teenagers but there’s bound to be longer term fallouts from this, isn’t it?

那怎樣才能做到呢?我是指短時(shí)間內(nèi)對這些青少年所造成的影響會(huì)對形成一個(gè)更長久的著火點(diǎn)，對么?

Absolutely, I think the first casualty of this in a longer term, it is going to be the national unity government that Mamhoud Abbas is overseeing. That government came together in order to form and hold election for Palestinian institution. I think we are now much further from those elections than that, we were beforehand. And if we don’t have election that means there’s no real legitimacy for the leadership. It means that the ongoing political stagnation that’s taking place in Palestinian institution will continue. There’s no prospect of a renewed peace process. I think the only way out potentially for Mamhoud Abbas in this is for him not to amuse the Westerns, that he would return to international forum in which he will challenge Israel for greater legitimacy and recognition for Palestinian statehood.

當(dāng)然，我認(rèn)為從長遠(yuǎn)的角度來看第一次傷亡事故的話，這將對馬哈茂德哈馬斯怎樣保持國家的團(tuán)結(jié)統(tǒng)一起到監(jiān)督作用。政府的出現(xiàn)是為了形成和選舉巴勒斯坦政治制度。我認(rèn)為我們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)比之前選舉前進(jìn)了不少。如果我們沒有選舉制度的話，就意味著整個(gè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)團(tuán)隊(duì)沒有法律可言。也就意味著發(fā)生在巴勒斯坦地區(qū)的政治停滯現(xiàn)象也將繼續(xù)下去。遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)看不到和平出現(xiàn)的希望。我認(rèn)為唯一馬哈茂德哈馬斯可做的是不要讓西方人民看笑話，這樣他才有可能重返國家論壇，去和以色列進(jìn)行更合法的競爭，重新穩(wěn)固巴勒斯坦的世界地位。

OK, wish we should take of it, i have a more optimistic, one day I'll give you in there a more optimistic forum in this process 'cause there has not been very many as in recently. Robert Amin, thank you very much.

希望我們能達(dá)到，我還是挺看好的?？傆幸惶煳視?huì)給你一個(gè)更加樂觀的話題來討論，因?yàn)樽罱鼪]有符合的話題。非常感謝來參加我們的討論。

Thank you.

謝謝。