“經(jīng)濟(jì)史上規(guī)模比較大的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)”將如何影響世界

It’s official: The United States and China are in a trade war after the Trump administration imposed tariffs at 12:01 a.m. Friday on $34 billion worth of Chinese products.
正式開始了：特朗普政府在周五凌晨12點(diǎn)01分對(duì)價(jià)值340億美元的中國(guó)產(chǎn)品征收關(guān)稅后，美中兩國(guó)進(jìn)入了貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。

Beijing immediately retaliated with its own penalties. The Chinese government is targeting a range of American products with tariffs, including pork, soybeans and automobiles.
北京立即采取報(bào)復(fù)措施。中國(guó)政府針對(duì)包括豬肉、大豆和汽車在內(nèi)的一系列美國(guó)產(chǎn)品征收了關(guān)稅。

The prospect of rising costs for imports is expected to impact businesses and consumers alike. The United States has also imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines from countries like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and Japan.
美國(guó)還對(duì)來(lái)自加拿大、墨西哥、歐盟和日本等國(guó)的進(jìn)口鋼鋁、太陽(yáng)能電池板和洗衣機(jī)征收關(guān)稅。預(yù)計(jì)進(jìn)口成本上升將對(duì)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者產(chǎn)生影響。

For now, it is unclear how — or whether — the trade war might conclude. On Friday, China’s, Ministry of Commerce said the United States “has launched the biggest trade war in economic history so far,” and President Trump on Thursday continued to threaten Beijing with escalating tariffs on as much as $450 billion worth of Chinese goods.

目前尚不清楚貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能會(huì)如何結(jié)束——或者是否會(huì)結(jié)束。周五，中國(guó)商務(wù)部表示，美國(guó)“發(fā)動(dòng)了迄今為止經(jīng)濟(jì)史上規(guī)模最大的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)”，特朗普總統(tǒng)周四繼續(xù)威脅北京，對(duì)中國(guó)商品征收的關(guān)稅將逐步升級(jí)，最終對(duì)價(jià)值高達(dá)4500億美元的商品征收關(guān)稅。

With its own tariffs on American goods, China would join other countries that have retaliated against Mr. Trump’s trade measures, bringing the total value of affected American exports to about $75 billion by the end of the week. That is still a small fraction of the $1.55 trillion of goods the United States exported last year, but in some industries, the pain is becoming intense.
憑借對(duì)美國(guó)商品征收的關(guān)稅，中國(guó)將加入其他國(guó)家的行列，對(duì)特朗普的貿(mào)易措施進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)，令受影響的美國(guó)出口總值于本周末達(dá)到約750億美元。這依然只相當(dāng)于美國(guó)去年出口的1.55萬(wàn)億美元商品的一小部分，但在某些行業(yè)，這種痛苦正變得越來(lái)越劇烈。

The tariffs on China, the world’s largest manufacturing hub, affect a much larger share of products and a greater percentage of companies that rely on global supply chains, potentially hurting American companies even more than the Chinese firms the Trump administration is targeting. Research by Mary Lovely and Yang Liang of Syracuse University shows that in the field of computer and electronics products, for example, non-Chinese multinational corporations operating in China supply 87 percent of the products that will be affected by tariffs, while Chinese firms send only 13 percent.
中國(guó)是全球最大的制造業(yè)中心，對(duì)其征收的關(guān)稅影響了更大的產(chǎn)品份額，以及更多依賴全球供應(yīng)鏈的公司，這對(duì)美國(guó)公司的傷害，甚至可能超過(guò)特朗普政府所針對(duì)的中國(guó)公司。例如，雪城大學(xué)(Syracuse University)的瑪麗·洛夫利(Mary Lovely)和梁揚(yáng)(音)的研究表明，在計(jì)算機(jī)和電子產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域，受關(guān)稅影響的產(chǎn)品有87%由在中國(guó)運(yùn)營(yíng)的非中國(guó)跨國(guó)企業(yè)提供，而中國(guó)企業(yè)只提供其中的13%。

A 2011 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco showed that, for every dollar spent on an item labeled “Made in China,” 55 cents went for services produced in the United States. The risks that a trade war posed to the economy was a substantial topic of discussion when Fed policymakers met three weeks ago, according to minutes of the meeting released Thursday.
舊金山聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行2011年的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，在標(biāo)有“中國(guó)制造”的物品上，每消費(fèi)一美元，就會(huì)有55美分流入美國(guó)生產(chǎn)的服務(wù)中。周四公布的會(huì)議紀(jì)要顯示，三周前，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策制定者會(huì)面時(shí)，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一個(gè)重要議題。

Most Fed officials at the table “noted that uncertainty and risks had intensified,” and that tariffs and other trade measures “could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending.”
大多數(shù)出席會(huì)議的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員“注意到不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇了”，并認(rèn)為關(guān)稅和其他貿(mào)易措施“可能對(duì)商業(yè)信心和投資支出產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響”。

As of Friday morning, companies like Husco International, a Wisconsin-based manufacturing company that makes parts for companies like Ford, General Motors, Caterpillar and John Deere, now face a 25 percent increase on a variety of parts imported from China. Austin Ramirez, Husco International’s chief executive, said that increase would immediately put him and other American manufacturers at a disadvantage to competitors abroad.“The people it helps most of all are my competitors in Germany and Japan, who also have large parts of their supply chain in Asia but don’t have these tariffs,” he said. The Trump administration drafted its initial tariff list to spare consumers, and many of the products that American families purchase from China, like flat-screen TVs and shoes, are not directly hit on Friday. But American companies that depend on Chinese products are expected to feel the pinch, given the tariffs focus heavily on the kind of intermediate inputs and capital equipment that businesses purchase and ultimately sell both in the United States and abroad.

“Of course I want China to fight back,” said Cathy Yuan, 32, who was shopping at an upscale Shanghai supermarket on Friday. “We are defending our rights as a nation.”
“我當(dāng)然支持中國(guó)反擊，”32歲的凱茜·袁說(shuō)，周五，她在一家上海高檔超市購(gòu)物。“這是為了我們國(guó)家的權(quán)利。”