Lex專欄：中國券商有望受益于IPO熱潮

The proposed $100bn float of Xiaomi should excite Lei Jun, founder of the Beijing-based smartphone maker. Investors in Citic Securities may benefit, too. Press reports moot its subsidiary CLSA as a sponsor to the initial public offering. Citic shares have risen 10 per cent in the two days since. An expected IPO boom bodes well for brokerage companies more broadly.

小米(Xiaomi)擬議中的1000億美元上市計劃，應該會讓這家總部位于北京的智能手機制造商的創(chuàng)始人雷軍感到興奮。中信證券(Citic Securities)的投資者也可能從中受益。媒體報道稱，其子公司中信里昂證券(CLSA)將成為此次首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)的保薦人之一。自那以來的兩天內，中信股價已上漲10%。預期中的IPO熱潮對券商作為一個整體是個好兆頭。

Analysts at Nomura expect IPO volumes to increase 10 per cent to Rmb265bn ($41bn). Citic and Guangfa Securities have the largest IPO pipelines with at least twice the number of deals of third-ranked group Orient Securities, as of November.

野村證券(Nomura)分析師預計IPO規(guī)模將增長10%，至2650億元人民幣(合410億美元)。截至去年11月，中信證券和廣發(fā)證券(Guangfa Securities)擁有規(guī)模最大的IPO管道，交易數(shù)量至少是排名第三的東方證券(Orient Securities)的兩倍。

Regulatory tightening is putting the squeeze on secondary refinancings. But the impact is softened by the fact that fees on these deals are less than a fifth of commissions on IPOs in percentage terms. Even cutting the secondaries business by half would at most reduce sector revenues by 3 per cent.

監(jiān)管收緊正在對二次再融資造成擠壓。但其影響已被減緩——因為按百分比計算，這些交易的費用不到IPO傭金的五分之一。即使將二級業(yè)務削減一半，最多也會使整個行業(yè)的收入減少3%。

Brokerage and investment income together account for more than half of brokers’ revenues. Positive stock market sentiment provides a tailwind to both activities. Trading volumes have declined two years in a row since the 2015 bust and are due a bounce back. Recent regulation restricts investors to a maximum of three broker accounts, down from 20. This should help slow a decline in commission rates.

經(jīng)紀和投資收入合計占到券商收入的一半以上。樂觀的股市情緒為這兩項活動提供了推動力。自2015年崩盤以來，交易量已連續(xù)兩年下降，是時候迎來反彈。最近的監(jiān)管規(guī)定限制投資者最多開立3個券商賬戶，以前是20個。這將有助于減緩傭金費率的下滑。

Citic occupies a sweet spot in investment because its relatively low exposure to bonds makes it less vulnerable to rising rates than rivals. Leverage, measured by the ratio of liabilities to equity, is lower than historical averages and that of foreign groups. Bulls will demand more margin financing, which could boost the balance sheet size along with the group’s return on equity.

中信在投資方面占據(jù)了有利地位，相對較低的債券敞口意味著，相對于競爭對手，它更不容易受到利率上升的影響。杠桿率(以負債與股本之比衡量)低于歷史平均水平和外資集團。看漲市場的人將需求更多的保證金融資，這可能會提振資產(chǎn)負債表規(guī)模，并提高該集團的股本回報率。

Despite their recent increase, shares of Citic Securities trade at a multiple of 1.3 times book — still a discount to their long run average. Chinese investment banks that own brokerages are a cheap way for investors to benefit from the country’s bull market.

盡管最近股價有所上漲，但中信證券的股價仍是賬面價值的1.3倍，低于長期平均水平。擁有券商業(yè)務的中國投行是投資者獲益于中國牛市的低成本渠道。