Lex專欄：澳門賭場(chǎng)旺不旺看中國(guó)

Gamblers have no way of telling the end of a winning streak from a random loss. Investors in casino stocks face the same problem. Gaming revenues in Macau grew during December, but not as much as expected. Sharp-eyed shareholders in these casinos should focus on liquidity conditions in China rather than revenues in the former Portuguese colony.

偶然輸一次，賭徒們沒法判斷他們的好手氣是否要結(jié)束了。博彩股的投資者也有類似的問題。12月，澳門的博彩業(yè)收入有所增長(zhǎng)，但并未達(dá)到預(yù)期。各家賭場(chǎng)有眼光的股東們應(yīng)該關(guān)注的是中國(guó)的流動(dòng)性狀況，而不是這塊葡萄牙前殖民地的收入。

Shares prices of Wynn Macau and Galaxy Entertainment roughly doubled last year and near their 2013 peaks. Competitor Sands China, which attracts fewer high-rollers, gained a mere quarter. Investors expect more of the same in 2018. New infrastructure in Macau, such as the Zhuhai bridge, should deliver more mainlanders to the tables more quickly. Casinos have already added rooms to accommodate them, so capital spending should slow down in coming years.

永利澳門(Wynn Macau)與銀河娛樂集團(tuán)(Galaxy Entertainment)的股價(jià)去年差不多翻了一番，目前接近2013年的峰值。金沙中國(guó)(Sands China)吸引的豪賭客要少一些，股價(jià)漲幅僅為四分之一。投資者們預(yù)計(jì)2018年的情況也會(huì)差不多。澳門新建的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，如港珠澳大橋，應(yīng)該能以更快的速度將更多的內(nèi)地人送到賭桌上。各家賭場(chǎng)已為此增設(shè)了客房，因此未來幾年的資本支出應(yīng)當(dāng)會(huì)放緩。

Revenues have grown because the middle classes as well as the super-rich are flocking to gambling tables. Morgan Stanley analysts expect this trend to continue as consumers become wealthier. Diversifying the customer base should support earnings growth. Wynn Macau looks particularly well placed, given that competitor facilities remain under construction while its own are complete. That should help it take market share.

博彩收入增長(zhǎng)，是因?yàn)橹挟a(chǎn)階級(jí)和超級(jí)富豪蜂擁坐到賭桌前。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師們預(yù)測(cè)，隨著消費(fèi)者愈加富有，這種趨勢(shì)將繼續(xù)下去?？蛻羧憾鄻踊瘧?yīng)該能夠?yàn)橛鲩L(zhǎng)提供支撐?？紤]到競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手還在興建設(shè)施，而自己的設(shè)施完善，永利澳門似乎處于有利地位。這應(yīng)該有助于永利澳門搶占市場(chǎng)份額。

Provided, of course, that Chinese keep spending — and are permitted to do so. China’s regulators have limited citizens’ ability to withdraw cash; annual foreign cash withdrawal limits were tightened to Rmb100,000 per person last weekend. Though similar measures have had little effect on spending in the past, monetary tightening by China probably would. Last month its central bank raised interest rates, the first time since March.

當(dāng)然，前提是中國(guó)人會(huì)繼續(xù)消費(fèi)---并且政府允許他們這樣做。中國(guó)的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)早對(duì)公民提取現(xiàn)金的能力加以限制;上周末，每人每年境外提現(xiàn)金額被收緊至10萬元人民幣。雖然以往類似舉措對(duì)支出的影響并不大，但中國(guó)收緊貨幣政策大概會(huì)起到作用。上個(gè)月，中國(guó)央行提高了市場(chǎng)利率，這是自3月以來的首個(gè)加息動(dòng)作。

Casino stocks in Hong Kong recovered on Wednesday, after selling off following the disappointing industry data. Investors are right to ignore one month’s revenue underperformance and focus on broader trends — where they will also find risks to the bullish thesis.

香港博彩類股票因行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)令人失望而下跌后，周三展開反彈。投資者對(duì)單月收入欠佳不以為意而著眼于大勢(shì)是正確之舉——他們也會(huì)從整體樂觀的趨勢(shì)中發(fā)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。