全球股市以創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高度迎來(lái)2018年

Global stocks touched record highs for a third straight day on Thursday, as the first trading week of 2018 built on last year’s gains, prompting a renowned critic of market bubbles to warn that investors should prepare for a “melt-up”.

周四，全球股市連續(xù)第三天觸及歷史高點(diǎn)。2018年的首個(gè)交易周在去年上漲的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步攀升，促使一位曾準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)泡沫的知名市場(chǎng)評(píng)論員警告投資者要準(zhǔn)備迎接“融漲”。

Signs of the stronger economic growth that was central to last year’s rally has continued this week as a slew of purchasing managers’ index data showed factory output increasing worldwide.

助推去年股市漲勢(shì)的強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭本周延續(xù)，一批制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)顯示世界各地的工業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)。

The FTSE All World index has added 2 per cent since traders and investors returned from the new year holiday, extending 2017’s rise of 22 per cent — the fourth-best year since the benchmark started in 1993.

自交易員與投資者結(jié)束新年假期以來(lái)，富時(shí)環(huán)球指數(shù)(FTSE All World Index)已經(jīng)上漲了2%，延伸了2017年22%的漲幅。去年是該基準(zhǔn)自1993年發(fā)布以來(lái)第四個(gè)最佳年份。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above the 25,000 level as Wall Street opened on Thursday and the S&P 500 pushed further into record territory with gains of 0.4 per cent. Surging technology share prices on Tuesday propelled the Nasdaq Composite past the 7,000 level for the first time.

周四華爾街開(kāi)盤后，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)(Dow Jones Industrial Average)攀升至25000點(diǎn)上方，而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)以0.4%的漲幅在創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄區(qū)間進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)。周二，科技股股價(jià)飆升推動(dòng)納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)(Nasdaq Composite)首次沖破7000點(diǎn)大關(guān)。

Buoyed by the passage of tax reform late last month, Wall Street analysts have upgraded earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, while oil’s rally to its highest level since May 2015 has been a boon for energy shares — which have led the US benchmark over the past month.

受上月下旬稅制改革通過(guò)的鼓舞，華爾街分析師紛紛提高對(duì)標(biāo)普500成分股企業(yè)的盈利預(yù)測(cè)，而油價(jià)上漲至2015年5月以來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)，對(duì)能源股來(lái)說(shuō)亦為一個(gè)利好;該板塊在過(guò)去一個(gè)月領(lǐng)漲這一美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)股指。

“Rarely has the outlook for a new year been as encouraging as it is today,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. “We expect the synchronised global upswing to continue in 2018 at the above-trend pace reached in the last three quarters of 2017.”

“新一年的前景很少像今天這樣令人鼓舞，”貝倫貝格銀行(Berenberg Bank)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家霍格爾•施米丁(Holger Schmieding)說(shuō)。“我們預(yù)計(jì)，2018年全球同步增長(zhǎng)將延續(xù)2017年后三個(gè)季度高于趨勢(shì)線的增速。”

Jeremy Grantham, the founder of Boston-based asset manager GMO who correctly called the dotcom and housing bubbles, said: “As a historian of the great equity bubbles, I also recognise that we are currently showing signs of entering the blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market.”

總部位于波士頓的資產(chǎn)管理公司GMO的創(chuàng)始人杰里米•格蘭瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)曾正確預(yù)測(cè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)股泡沫和房地產(chǎn)泡沫，他表示：“作為一個(gè)見(jiàn)證過(guò)股市巨大泡沫的歷史學(xué)家，我也認(rèn)識(shí)到目前有跡象顯示，我們正進(jìn)入這一持續(xù)已經(jīng)很久的牛市的沖頂回落或融漲階段。”

While the investment strategist had signalled a sharp change of tone in his longstanding bearish views last year, his latest forecast is his strongest statement yet on a “late bubble surge” for equities.

雖然這位投資策略師長(zhǎng)期看跌的論調(diào)在去年急轉(zhuǎn)彎，但他的最新預(yù)測(cè)是其對(duì)股市“后期泡沫式飆漲”的最強(qiáng)烈陳述。

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Average started the trading year on Thursday with a 3.3 per cent pop, its biggest one-day gain in more than a year which left the Japanese market at a 26-year high.

周四東京的日經(jīng)225平均指數(shù)(Nikkei 225 Average)以上漲3.3%迎來(lái)新的交易年，這是其一年多以來(lái)的最大單日漲幅，使日本股市達(dá)到26年來(lái)新高。

Bond markets are also providing a benign backdrop for stocks, with a becalmed reaction to the prospects of very easy money ending this year from central banks. The 10-year US Treasury yield has traded in a tight range below 2.50 per cent since touching that high last month.

債券市場(chǎng)也為股市提供了一個(gè)良性的背景，對(duì)各大央行今年結(jié)束寬松貨幣政策的前景反應(yīng)平靜。自上月觸及2.5%的收益率高點(diǎn)以來(lái)，美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債的收益率徘徊在低于這一水平的狹窄區(qū)間。

“The party has begun,” said Mr Schmieding. “Strong growth at low inflation will not last for ever. So far, however, neither the US nor Europe or Japan have built up serious excesses that would require a cleansing recession soon. The party can still last for a while.”

“派對(duì)開(kāi)始了，”施米丁說(shuō)，“低通脹水平的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)不會(huì)一直持續(xù)下去。不過(guò)，迄今為止，美國(guó)、歐洲和日本都沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)需要很快通過(guò)衰退來(lái)清理的嚴(yán)重過(guò)度行為。這場(chǎng)派對(duì)可能還會(huì)持續(xù)一陣。”

Romain Boscher, co-head of equities at Paris-based asset manager Amundi, said concerns about a bubble for US equities were overdone. “Compared to past crises (2000, 2007), we don’t see excess in terms of flows,” he said. “M&A will likely revive and support the market now that the tax reform has been legislated. Financial conditions are still benign.”

總部設(shè)在巴黎的資產(chǎn)管理公司Amundi的股票聯(lián)席主管羅曼•博舍爾(Romain Boscher)表示，對(duì)美國(guó)股市泡沫的擔(dān)憂是過(guò)度的。“與過(guò)去的危機(jī)(2000年和2007年)相比，我們并沒(méi)有看到過(guò)多的流量。”他說(shuō)，“考慮到稅改已經(jīng)成為法律，并購(gòu)活動(dòng)很可能復(fù)蘇并支撐市場(chǎng)。金融狀況依然是良性的。”

But Mr Grantham, who favours emerging market stocks, said the melt-up may end as early as this year — “within the next six months to two years is likely”.

但青睞新興市場(chǎng)股票的格蘭瑟姆表示，融漲可能會(huì)在今年告終——“很可能在未來(lái)6個(gè)月到2年之間”。

He added: “When most have talking heads yammering about Amazon, Tencent, and bitcoin and not Patriot replays — just as late 1999 featured the latest in Pets.com — we are probably down to the last few months. Good luck. We’ll all need some.”

他補(bǔ)充道：“當(dāng)電視上的多數(shù)評(píng)論人士都滔滔不絕地談?wù)搧嗰R遜(Amazon)、騰訊(Tencent)和比特幣，而不是電視劇《愛(ài)國(guó)者》(Patriot)的重播的時(shí)候——就像1999年末電視上都是有關(guān)Pets.com的最新動(dòng)態(tài)——我們很可能已經(jīng)到最后幾個(gè)月了。祝你好運(yùn)。我們都會(huì)需要點(diǎn)運(yùn)氣。”