減稅對(duì)美經(jīng)濟(jì)提振效果受到質(zhì)疑

Even as US stocks roared higher yesterday in response to the passage of the Senate tax bill, analysts were expressing scepticism about the notion that it will transform an economy already running close to full employment.

昨日，盡管美股因美國(guó)參議院通過(guò)稅改法案大幅走高，但分析師對(duì)該法案將讓已接近充分就業(yè)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)生改觀的觀點(diǎn)表示了懷疑。

Kent Smetters, a former Bush administration official who oversees the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said he expected at most a 0.1 percentage point uplift to annual growth rates over the course of 10 years as a result of the legislation. The long-run impact on trend growth would be negligible, he added, as the extra debt amassed as a result of lost revenue weighed down on the economy. “It is not a significant boost,” he said.

賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)沃頓商學(xué)院預(yù)算模型(Penn Wharton Budget Model)主管、前布什政府官員肯特•斯邁特斯(Kent Smetters)表示，他預(yù)計(jì)該法案的影響是，在未來(lái)10年將經(jīng)濟(jì)年增長(zhǎng)率最多提高0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。他接著說(shuō)，對(duì)于趨勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)率的長(zhǎng)期影響可以忽略不計(jì)，這是因?yàn)槎愂帐杖霚p少會(huì)導(dǎo)致政府債務(wù)增加，令經(jīng)濟(jì)承重。“對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的提振效果不會(huì)太大，”他說(shuō)。

Politically, there is no doubt that the passage of the package is opportune. The US has seen two successive readings of annual GDP growth running at 3 per cent or more and the Atlanta Fed’s model points to 3.5 per cent growth for the final quarter of the year.

在政治上，一攬子稅改的通過(guò)無(wú)疑時(shí)機(jī)正好。美國(guó)已有連續(xù)兩年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速為3%或3%以上，亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Atlanta Fed)的模型預(yù)測(cè)今年第四季度的增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)3.5%。

Assuming the legislation goes through, it will effectively put Republicans in a position to adopt the recovery as their own, pointing to their tax changes as fuel for the continued growth and potentially boosting their prospects in midterm elections next year.

假設(shè)該立法獲得通過(guò)，它實(shí)際上將讓共和黨得以把復(fù)蘇歸結(jié)為自己的功勞，聲稱他們的稅改為持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)提供了動(dòng)力，并可能提升他們?cè)诿髂曛衅谶x舉中的獲勝前景。

Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, told the FT before the Senate deal went through that significant tax reform would mean “at the very least the odds of sustaining growth at the 3 per cent level go up enormously”.

在參議院通過(guò)稅改之前，經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)(Council of Economic Advisers)主席凱文•哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)告訴英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》，這次重大稅改將意味著，“最起碼把增長(zhǎng)率維持在3%水平的概率大大提高了”。

But the Republican party will also have to take responsibility for widening deficits, with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projecting that tax and spending legislation currently on the agenda could propel the US back to trillion-dollar deficits as soon as 2019. And the package arguably leaves unaddressed longer-term economic challenges alongside rising public debt, including higher inequality, poor educational outcomes and slowing labour force growth.

但共和黨同時(shí)也將不得不對(duì)赤字?jǐn)U大負(fù)責(zé)，美國(guó)盡責(zé)聯(lián)邦預(yù)算委員會(huì)(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)預(yù)測(cè)，當(dāng)前議程中的稅收與支出立法可能最早于2019年把美國(guó)推回萬(wàn)億美元赤字的境地。除了不斷升高的公共債務(wù)，一攬子稅改還可以說(shuō)對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)仍然未作解決，包括不平等程度加劇、教育成效低和勞動(dòng)力增長(zhǎng)緩慢。

The House and Senate now face the difficult task of reconciling their two versions of the legislation, as they dash to get a bill on the president’s desk by the end of the year. But the increasing likelihood of the tax bill becoming law is prompting analysts to boost their growth forecasts for the very short term.

參眾兩院如今面臨著調(diào)和它們各自版本法案的艱難任務(wù)，它們正力爭(zhēng)在年底前把一份法案提交至總統(tǒng)的辦公桌。但這項(xiàng)稅改法案變成法律的可能性越來(lái)越大，促使分析師調(diào)高他們的短期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)。

Alec Phillips, a Goldman Sachs analyst, said the tax revenue reduction was worth about 0.6pc of gross domestic product in 2018 and 1.1pc of GDP in 2019. Looking at how much of this was actually going to be spent, and therefore turned up in extra GDP, it translated into a 0.3 percentage point boost to 2018 GDP and a 0.3 percentage point uplift to 2019 GDP, he said. “After that the size of the tax cut flattens off and starts to decline somewhat, so we don’t estimate any additional uplift to GDP in 2020.”

高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師亞歷克•菲利普斯(Alec Phillips)表示，減稅大致相當(dāng)于2018年GDP的0.6%，相當(dāng)于2019年GDP的1.1%。他說(shuō)，考慮減稅部分實(shí)際上有多少將被支出、因而變成更多的GDP后，減稅將把2018年和2019年的GDP各提升0.3%。“在那之后，減稅規(guī)模會(huì)穩(wěn)定下來(lái)，并或多或少開(kāi)始減少，所以我們估計(jì)它將對(duì)2020年的GDP起不到任何推升效果。”

The main benefits being touted by the White House stem from reduced individual tax rates and the slashing of the headline corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 20 per cent, which its economists expect to translate into higher investment and therefore increased wages. President Donald Trump took full credit for the soaring stock market yesterday as he discussed the tax cuts, declaring on Twitter that “jobs are roaring back”.

白宮鼓吹的主要減稅好處是個(gè)人所得稅的下降以及企業(yè)稅從35%降至20%——白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)這將帶來(lái)投資增加、從而帶來(lái)工資增長(zhǎng)。昨天，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在討論稅改時(shí)，把股市上漲完全歸功于自己，他在Twitter上聲稱“就業(yè)正在強(qiáng)勢(shì)回歸”。

The Senate’s decision to delay the cut in the corporate rate to 2019, while allowing companies to immediately deduct capital investments from 2018, could further induce firms to rush through investments next year, according to Scott Greenberg of the Tax Foundation. He describes the latter effect as a “huge deal” in the short term, although not all analysts expect the big uplift to GDP from the measure that he does.

參議院決定把降低企業(yè)稅率的時(shí)間推后至2019年，同時(shí)允許企業(yè)從2018年開(kāi)始在應(yīng)納稅收入中直接扣除資本投資。美國(guó)稅收基金會(huì)(The Tax Foundation)的斯科特•格林伯格(Scott Greenberg)表示，該決定可能進(jìn)一步促使企業(yè)明年匆匆加大投資。他形容后者在短期內(nèi)將“收效卓著”，盡管并非所有的分析人士都像他一樣認(rèn)為該措施將大幅提升GDP。

Over the longer term, the tax bill’s effects are more ambiguous. Jason Furman, who chaired Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said higher debt would gradually impose a mounting counterweight on the economy’s performance beyond next year. He said he too would advocate business tax reform, but “I would make sure it is paid for and make sure it does not open up new loopholes”.

從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，稅改法案的影響較不明朗。曾任巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)主席的賈森•弗曼(Jason Furman)表示，債務(wù)增加將在明年以后逐漸對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)施加日益嚴(yán)重的反作用力。他稱自己也主張進(jìn)行企業(yè)稅改革，但“我會(huì)確保它的資金來(lái)源并且確保它不會(huì)再制造新漏洞。”

Analysis of previous iterations of the tax overhaul has suggested that the benefits would be skewed to the wealthiest in America, in part because holdings of corporate equities are concentrated in wealthier groups. In 2027, when the individual tax cuts will have expired, more than 60 per cent of the benefits of tax reform would accrue to the top 1 per cent of earners, according to the Tax Policy Center. By that year, taxes would rise modestly for the lowest-income group, change little for middle-income groups, and fall for higher-income groups.

對(duì)于此次稅改前幾版方案的分析表明，好處將向美國(guó)最富有群體傾斜，部分是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)股份都集中在較富有群體的手中。據(jù)稅收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)計(jì)算，2027年當(dāng)個(gè)稅削減到期時(shí)，稅收改革超過(guò)60%的好處將落到收入最高的1%的人身上。到那時(shí)候，最低收入群體的稅負(fù)將略微增加，中等收入群體的稅負(fù)幾乎不變，而較高收入群體的稅負(fù)將減少。

“I don’t think it is going to be a big benefit and it seriously intensifies the wealth inequality problem,” said Bill Cline, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“我不認(rèn)為它會(huì)帶來(lái)很大好處，而且它會(huì)嚴(yán)重加劇貧富差距問(wèn)題，”彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家比爾•克萊恩(Bill Cline)表示。

He said the principal beneficiaries of the package were likely to be holders of corporate shares and the top 1 per cent. The $1tn budget shortfall expected over the coming 10 years as a result of the plan could prompt some lawmakers to argue for cuts to social spending, which could further hurt those who were poorly off, he predicted.

他稱，稅改的主要受益人可能是持有企業(yè)股份的人和最富有的1%的人。他預(yù)測(cè)，該計(jì)劃在未來(lái)10年預(yù)計(jì)將造成的1萬(wàn)億美元預(yù)算赤字，可能會(huì)促使一些議員主張削減社會(huì)支出，這會(huì)進(jìn)一步傷害貧困人口。