短線視點(diǎn)：中資銀行因經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡獲益

As part of China’s anti-corruption drive, the free liquor and even bottled water disappeared from the hotels housing guests for the 19th Party Congress, which concluded last week. But despite the austere note on which the core leadership insisted, there was a congratulatory air about the proceedings.

作為中國反腐運(yùn)動(dòng)的一部分，在上周閉幕的中共第19次全國代表大會(huì)(十九大)期間，免費(fèi)的白酒甚至瓶裝水都從與會(huì)者下榻的酒店里消失了。但是，盡管中共核心領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層保持艱苦樸素的基調(diào)，外界卻對(duì)十九大感到歡欣鼓舞。

The reflationary trade may be moribund in the US, but across the Pacific it is alive and well. Consider one small indication noted by Chris Wood, strategist at CLSA: ICBC, the largest bank in China and in the world, is trading above book value in relatively cynical Hong Kong for the first time in more than two years. “The improvement in Chinese banks’ reported asset quality can be seen in the continuing rally in Chinese bank stocks, where a re-rating is now taking place,” he notes.

美國的通貨再膨脹交易或許行將滅亡，但在整個(gè)太平洋地區(qū)，這種交易依然活躍。想一想里昂證券(CLSA)策略師克里斯•伍德(Chris Wood)指出的一個(gè)小跡象：在相對(duì)持懷疑態(tài)度的香港市場(chǎng)，中國乃至世界最大銀行中國工商銀行(ICBC)的股價(jià)2年多來首次超過賬面價(jià)值。“中資銀行報(bào)告的資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量的改善，體現(xiàn)在中資銀行股的持續(xù)上揚(yáng)中，這些銀行股正得到重新評(píng)級(jí)，”他指出。

Banks are generally a proxy for wider economic trends. In this case, the recovery of the share prices of ICBC and its peers reflects two benign developments.

銀行通常是整體經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)的晴雨表。在這種情況下，中國工商銀行及其他中資銀行的股價(jià)復(fù)蘇，反映出兩個(gè)良性發(fā)展。

For one thing, the rate of growth of debt — widely seen by bearish hedge fund managers as one day triggering a systemic financial crisis — has slowed. Indeed, the second quarter was the first since 2011 in which debt actually declined, according to Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.

一方面，債務(wù)增長(zhǎng)速度放緩了，此前悲觀的對(duì)沖基金公司廣泛認(rèn)為債務(wù)增長(zhǎng)總有一天會(huì)引發(fā)系統(tǒng)性金融危機(jī)。的確，摩根大通(JPMorgan)駐香港首席中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱海斌表示，今年第二季度是2011年以來債務(wù)首次實(shí)際發(fā)生下降。

Although the drop in total debt (including the shadow banks) was “marginal”, as Mr Zhu notes, the composition of that debt has also shifted. The share of corporate lending in the total is down, while that of households is increasing. That, in turn, means the long-promised rebalancing of the economy from investment to consumption is gaining momentum.

盡管總債務(wù)(包括影子銀行)的下降“微不足道”，但朱海斌指出，債務(wù)的構(gòu)成發(fā)生了變化。企業(yè)貸款在總債務(wù)中的比例下降，而家庭貸款的比例正在上升。這進(jìn)而意味著，長(zhǎng)期許諾的經(jīng)濟(jì)從投資轉(zhuǎn)向消費(fèi)的再平衡正在形成勢(shì)頭。

The banks are double beneficiaries of this because loans to households, especially for mortgages, are less likely to become problem assets. Moreover, banks can also charge more to consumers, thereby improving their margins.

銀行是這一變化的雙重受益者，因?yàn)閷?duì)家庭發(fā)放的貸款，尤其是抵押貸款，成為問題資產(chǎn)的可能性更低。此外，銀行還可以向消費(fèi)者收取更多費(fèi)用，從而提高自身的利潤(rùn)率。

Financial stocks make up nearly 24 per cent of the MSCI China index, which has been a star performer year to date. Given that these positive trends in the quality of banks’ balance sheets are still in their early days, not only are the banks far less likely to bring down the system, they may even be as highly regarded by investors as they are by the leadership.

金融股占MSCI中國指數(shù)(MSCI China index)近24%，這類股票今年迄今的表現(xiàn)十分出色?？紤]到有關(guān)銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表質(zhì)量的積極趨勢(shì)仍處于早期階段，銀行不僅不太可能引發(fā)系統(tǒng)性問題，還可能在投資者那里得到它們?cè)陬I(lǐng)導(dǎo)層已經(jīng)得到的高度重視。