中國汽車銷量強勁推高橡膠價格

Expectations of robust demand from China boosted rubber to a three-year high after buoyant car sales data for November lifted expectations of higher tyre demand.

中國強勁需求預期推動橡膠價格漲至三年高點，11月火爆的汽車銷售數(shù)據(jù)推高了輪胎需求預期。

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported vehicle sales of 2.9m in November, up 16.6 per cent year on year. Tax breaks introduced this year on small passenger cars have spurred demand and while the November figure was down from a September peak of 26.1 per cent, it marked the sixth straight double-digit rise in growth.

據(jù)中國汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)報告，11月汽車銷量達290萬輛，同比增長16.6%。今年出臺的小排量汽車購置稅減免優(yōu)惠刺激了需求，盡管11月銷售增幅低于9月26.1%的峰值，但它標志著連續(xù)第六個月實現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長。

Rubber, which is also used in condoms and gloves, closed up almost 8 per cent to $205.60 a kilogramme in Singapore, its highest level since January 2014.

橡膠價格在新加坡收漲近8%，至每公斤205.60美元，創(chuàng)2014年1月以來最高水平。橡膠還用于安全套和手套。

“If demand remains this dynamic, more rubber will be needed for manufacturing tyres,” said Commerzbank.

德國商業(yè)銀行(Commerzbank)表示：“如果需求仍然保持這種活力，將需要更多橡膠來制造輪胎。”

Chinese consumers have rushed to purchase vehicles before the tax breaks expire at the end of the year. The country’s scramble for cars has also helped palladium, which is used in catalytic converters in petrol engines, with the precious metal up more than a third this year at $727.35 a troy ounce.

中國消費者在稅收減免于年底終止前趕著購買汽車。這還推高了鈀的價格，這種貴金屬用于汽油發(fā)動機中的催化轉(zhuǎn)化器，其價格今年漲幅逾三分之一，至每金衡盎司727.35美元。

Nevertheless, some car executives and analysts are concerned that rise in sales could slow next year if the government fails to extend the tax break, introduced in late 2015 to support flagging consumer demand.

然而一些汽車業(yè)高管和分析師擔心，如果中國政府未能延長減稅政策，明年的銷售增長可能會減緩。該政策于2015年末出臺，以支持低落的消費需求。

Analysts said rubber prices have also been supported by heavy rainfall in Thailand, the commodity’s largest producer, which led to disrupted harvesting known as “tapping”, which also added to the price increases.

分析師們表示，最大產(chǎn)膠國泰國的強降雨也推高了橡膠價格，因為強降雨干擾了割膠作業(yè)，加劇價格上漲。

The market has been on a downward trajectory since the start of 2011 when prices almost hit $600 per kg. This year, it has surged more than 80 per cent, and is likely to leading to increased costs for leading tyremakers including Bridgestone, Goodyear and Michelin.

自2011年初橡膠價格逼近600美元/公斤以來，橡膠市場一直處于下滑態(tài)勢。今年，橡膠價格已上漲逾80%，這很可能導致普利司通(Bridgestone)、固特異(Goodyear)、米其林(Michelin)等領先輪胎制造商成本增加。

The China car sales data comes as industry consultants are expecting a rubber supply shortfall between 2016-2018 due to falling yields.

在中國汽車銷量數(shù)據(jù)出爐之際，行業(yè)顧問預計，由于收成下滑，2016年至2018年將出現(xiàn)橡膠供應短缺。

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries last week said it expected the production of its members — who account for about 90 per cent of worldwide supply — to increase only 0.1 per cent in 2016. While demand is forecast to rise 4.1 per cent from the previous year.

天然橡膠生產(chǎn)國協(xié)會(ANRPC)上周表示，預計2016年協(xié)會成員國——占全球供應量的約90%——的橡膠產(chǎn)量僅增長0.1%，而預計需求與上年相比將增長4.1%。

The ANRPC said: “The uptrend could be supported by favourable supply-demand fundamentals, weak Japanese yen, rebound in crude oil price and improved economic outlook in US.”

該協(xié)會稱：“推動價格上漲的因素包括有利的供需基本面因素、日元疲軟、原油價格反彈以及美國經(jīng)濟前景改善。”