智能手機供應商被迫轉向多元化

When the Apple tree is shaken, the effect is felt in the lower branches — the myriad companies supplying the hundreds of parts that go into a smartphone.

當蘋果公司(Apple)這棵大樹顫動時，下面的枝條——為智能手機提供數以百計部件的眾多公司——都會受到波及。

The tree has taken some shaking this year. Of the two companies that dominate the smartphone sector, Apple last quarter reported the first annual decline in iPhone sales volumes. Samsung has been burnt by the furore around the exploding Galaxy Note 7.

今年，這棵大樹出現了些許顫動。作為在智能手機領域占主導地位的兩家公司，蘋果上一季度報告iPhone年度銷量首次出現下滑，而三星(Samsung)還在承受Galaxy Note 7爆炸所引發(fā)激憤的煎熬。

More broadly, Gartner, the consultancy, forecasts smartphone sales to rise just 7 per cent this year, half the rate of 2015, adding to worries that the vast industry formed about the production of smartphones will soon be starved of growth.

更廣泛來看，咨詢公司高德納(Gartner)預測今年智能手機銷量將只增長7%，僅為2015年增速的一半，加重了對于圍繞智能手機生產形成的龐大產業(yè)很快將難覓增長的擔憂。

“With sales of 1.5bn a year, smartphones are a monster market,” says Steven Pelayo, tech analyst at HSBC, who points to the relatively smaller PC and tablet markets. “It’s been a supercycle that has cannibalised everything. But what’s the next big driver?”

“一年銷量達15億部，智能手機是一個巨大市場，”匯豐(HSBC)科技分析師史蒂文•佩拉約(Steven Pelayo)說，他以相對較小的個人電腦和平板電腦市場為對比。“這是一個消化了一切的超級周期。但下一股巨大推力是什么?”

That question is ricocheting around the boardrooms and factory floors across Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China. Apple alone relies on more than 200 suppliers for its products, the vast majority based in Asia.

這一問題正在日本、臺灣、韓國及中國大陸的董事會會議室、工廠車間內回蕩。僅蘋果一家的產品就依賴超過200家供應商，其中絕大多數位于亞洲。

As chief executive of Japan Display, which generates 85 per cent of its revenues from smartphone makers and half from Apple, Mitsuru Homma knows the quandary only too well.

日本顯示器公司(Japan Display, JDI)首席執(zhí)行官本間充(Mitsuru Homma)最清楚這一窘境，該公司85%的收入都來自智能手機制造商，一半的收入來自蘋果。

“If we stay with smartphones, then five to 10 years later JDI will probably no longer exist,” he says. “I feel very much the sense of crisis.”

“如果我們繼續(xù)守著智能手機，那5到10年后，JDI很可能將不復存在，”本間充說，“我有很強的危機感。”

Even the Japanese government, JDI’s main shareholder, is in agreement, he adds. The display maker is looking to diversify into supplying the devices linked to the internet of things and artificial intelligence.

甚至作為JDI主要股東的日本政府也持相同看法，他補充說。這家顯示屏制造商正尋求將業(yè)務擴展至供應與物聯網和人工智能相關的設備。

Mr Homma sees opportunities in self-driving cars, which will require interactive screens and maybe entire smart dashboards as well as medical monitors where the highest resolution can be, literally, a matter of life or death, and virtual reality.

本間充在自動駕駛汽車、醫(yī)用顯示器以及虛擬現實領域發(fā)現了機遇。自動駕駛汽車需要交互式屏幕或者一整塊智能儀表盤，醫(yī)用顯示器的最高分辨率實際上可能事關生死。

Cars also feature in Sony’s plans, along with the internet of things. The Japanese consumer electronics group staked its fortunes on image sensors and now boasts a 40 per cent market share by value. “Image sensors are input devices, so we believe there are new markets out there,” says Tsutomu Haruta, general manager. 在索尼(Sony)的規(guī)劃中，汽車與物聯網也占重要地位。這家日本消費電子集團將命運押在影像傳感器上，如今自稱

按價值算占有這一市場40%的份額?？偨浝泶禾锩?Tsutomu Haruta)表示：“影像傳感器屬于輸入設備，因此我們相信這里存在新的市場。”

Sony’s advantages, according to Shoichi Kitayama, general manager, are that its sensors can see bikes and people in the dark and pictures remain sharp even in high temperatures. Come 2025, he says, the average car will have two or three image sensors. At the top end that will stretch to 10.

索尼汽車團隊負責人北山尚一(Shoichi Kitayama)認為，索尼的優(yōu)勢在于，其傳感器能在黑暗中看到自行車和行人，且圖像即便在高溫環(huán)境中也能保持銳利。他說，到2025年，每輛汽車平均將配備兩或三個影像傳感器，最多的將配備10個。

“The economies of scale will be comparable to smartphones and will come close in terms of wafers used,” he says.

“其規(guī)模經濟將可以與智能手機媲美，以所用的晶片衡量將接近后者，”他說。

But he concedes those markets are new and untested — and for now are going to be smaller than the smartphone bounty.

但他承認，這些新的市場還未經檢驗，目前看來要比智能手機市場小。

Quite substantially smaller on Mr Pelayo’s reckoning. The semiconductor content per car is forecast to double from $350 to $700 by 2020 — equivalent to adding more than two iPhones, with about $150 in chip content apiece, in the average car over the next four years, or roughly one-half of an iPhone every year.

根據佩拉約的估算是要小得多。到2020年，每輛汽車搭載的半導體的價值預計將從350美元翻倍至700美元——相當于未來四年平均每輛汽車增加兩部iPhone多一點(每部iPhone的芯片部分價值約150美元)，或者每年增加半部iPhone。

With about 80m cars shipped a year, this would equate to about 40m more iPhones “or less than two weeks of smartphone production”.

汽車每年的銷量約有8000萬輛，因此這相當于增加約4000萬部iPhone，“或者不到兩周的智能手機產量”。

The numbers pan out similarly miserably for other applications: the 2m virtual reality headsets expected to be sold this year; the 12m annual servers sold or even the 20m Apple watches.

其他方面應用的數字也同樣慘淡：今年虛擬現實頭盔的預計銷量為200萬套，服務器銷量為1200萬臺，就連蘋果手表的銷量也只有2000萬塊。

Some are undeterred by the punier numbers, pointing out that smartphones are still in the picture for now, albeit growing slower and with an evolving modus operandi.

一些人并未被智能手機弱于從前的業(yè)績數字嚇倒，他們指出目前智能手機仍不容忽視，盡管增速放緩，且運作方式發(fā)生變化。

“You’ve got to look at what the smartphone brands are doing,” says Cherry Ma, tech analyst at CLSA. She spots two trends that will drive growth in certain areas: smartphone makers upgrading cameras, sound and aesthetics in an attempt to win share; and a consumer swing towards Chinese handset manufacturers.

里昂證券(CLSA)科技分析師Cherry Ma說：“你必須看看智能手機品牌在做什么。”她指出兩大趨勢將推動一些領域的增長：智能手機制造商升級攝像頭、音效及外觀，以圖贏得市場份額;消費者轉向中國手機制造商。

This year will see as many as 20 handsets featuring dual cameras offering better image quality, up from just one device last year. While global handset sales have grown 1-2 per cent this year, Chinese brands combined are growing at 20 per cent, she says.

今年將有多達20款手機配備影像質量更佳的雙攝像頭，而去年僅有一款。雖然今年全球手機銷量僅增長1%至2%，但中國品牌手機總銷量正在以20%的速度增長，她說。

“Even though the smartphone market is getting saturated, there is growth in dual camera phones so there are more image sensors in each phone,” says Sony’s Mr Haruta. He adds that while the number of smartphone players has been winnowed down, the top players are focused on cameras.

索尼的春田勉表示：“雖然智能手機市場正日益飽和，但雙攝像頭手機還在增長，因此每部手機都會有更多的影像傳感器。”雖然很多智能手機制造商已被淘汰，但頂級廠商仍專注攝像頭，他補充說。

“Requests have changed, even among the Chinese smartphone manufacturers. They all want special cameras,” he says. “Even among the cheaper makers, they are also looking to expand into high-end and are at the stage where they want to add more value.”

“要求已經改變，即便中國智能手機制造商也是。他們都想要特別的攝像頭，”他說，“即使是生產較廉價手機的制造商，也在尋求進入高端產品，希望增加更多的價值。”

That trend, which has been detrimental to Apple’s sales in China in particular, is helping buoy some of the top suppliers: not just those with brand names such as Sony, but also the companies investing in research and development to gain market share in niche or proprietary hardware.

這一趨勢對蘋果的在華銷售尤其不利，但正幫助支撐一些頂級供應商：不僅包括索尼等大品牌，還包括投資研發(fā)以圖在利基或專利硬件領域獲得市場份額的公司。

Ms Ma points to Sunny Optical, which is ramping up quantity and quality of its camera modules; while the desire for better sound plays to AAC Technologies, the Hong Kong-listed Apple supplier that is beefing up capital expenditure.

Cheery Ma提到了舜宇光學科技(Sunny Optical)和瑞聲科技(AAC Technologies)。前者不斷提升其攝像模塊的數量和質量，后者則受益于人們對更好音效的追求，這家香港上市的蘋果供應商正在擴大資本支出。

Higher resolution and sound quality, added to more complicated specifications, means higher average prices for suppliers as well as boosting quantity, says Ms Ma. “With acoustics, there is no one standard design. Vendors have to come up with their own design, so have to spend a lot on R&D,” she says.

Cheery Ma表示，更復雜的技術參數、更高的分辨率和更完美的音質，對供應商而言意味著更高的平均價格，還可以增加銷量。“在音響效果方面，沒有統一的標準設計。供應商必須拿出自己的設計，因此不得不在研發(fā)上花很多錢，”她說。

That — like the brave new world of self-driving cars and self-filling washing machines — may help but a gap remains. Tech analysts have identified a plateau in smartphone design outside more incremental updates in advanced imaging, which means that many people are now happy to keep hold of the smartphones already in their pockets for longer.

這——就像無人駕駛汽車和自動添衣洗衣機的美麗新世界——或許會有所幫助，但差距依然存在。技術分析師發(fā)現，除了在高級成像方面逐步升級之外，智能手機設計陷入停滯，這意味著如今許多人樂于更長時間保留已在他們口袋里的智能手機。

At least until they are given a new, good reason to upgrade. Suppliers to the once-unstoppable smartphone makers will need to tighten their belts as they wait for the next wave of popular consumer innovation.

至少留到他們有一個充分的新理由進行升級。一度勢不可擋的智能手機制造商的供應商將需要勒緊腰帶，等待下一波大眾消費創(chuàng)新到來。

“Over time, we suspect supply chain growth will be driven by an ever broader array of products, but no individual segment will probably catch the smartphone market any time soon,” says Mr Pelayo.

佩拉約說：“我們預測，隨著時間推移，供應鏈增長將受到更廣種類產品的驅動，但可能沒有任何一個領域能很快追上智能手機市場。”