美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)推遲加息牽連了誰(shuí)

If policymakers in the eurozone and Japan hoped toengineer a weaker currency by their aggressiveexpansion of monetary policy, they must bewatching the latest moves in currency markets withdismay. Despite fresh rounds of quantitativeeasing and radical experiments with negativeinterest rates — usually associated with a weakerexchange rate — the euro and yen have rallied.Threats of official intervention from Tokyo didnothing to prevent the yen climbing last week to a17-month high against the dollar.

如果歐元區(qū)和日本的政策制定者希望通過(guò)貨幣政策的積極擴(kuò)張使得匯率下跌，他們肯定正在沮喪地看著最近外匯市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)向。盡管推出了數(shù)輪量化寬松并祭出了負(fù)利率的激進(jìn)試驗(yàn)——通常會(huì)導(dǎo)致匯率下跌的舉措——但是歐元和日元匯率均出現(xiàn)上漲。日本官方干預(yù)市場(chǎng)的威脅未能阻止日元兌美元匯率近日攀升至17個(gè)月高點(diǎn)。

Interpreting the vagaries of foreign exchange markets is a risky business. One popularconclusion, though, has been that these moves betray the helplessness of central banks, forwhom a weak currency would be an invaluable tool. Investors think the European Central Bankand Bank of Japan are nearing the limits of monetary policy and no longer believe they will beable to revive growth and fight off deflation.

解讀外匯市場(chǎng)的異常波動(dòng)是一件冒險(xiǎn)的事。不過(guò)，一條廣為接受的結(jié)論是，這些舉動(dòng)暴露出央行的無(wú)能為力，對(duì)于它們來(lái)說(shuō)，疲軟的本幣匯率將是一項(xiàng)非常寶貴的工具。投資者認(rèn)為歐洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BoJ)對(duì)貨幣政策的運(yùn)用即將達(dá)到極限，他們不再認(rèn)為兩家央行有能力恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并對(duì)抗通脹。

There is some truth in these fears. The yen’s current level is hardly a ringing endorsement ofAbenomics. Nonetheless, the perverse behaviour of foreign exchange markets does notnecessarily reflect despair over the state of the global economy. Yen and euro strength is atleast in part a consequence of the recent change in stance by the US Federal Reserve, whichhas signalled that it is in no hurry to proceed with a second rise in interest rates.

這些擔(dān)憂有一定道理。日元目前的匯率水平遠(yuǎn)算不上是對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)(Abenomics)的有力背書(shū)。盡管如此，外匯市場(chǎng)的異常表現(xiàn)也未必反映出市場(chǎng)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況感到絕望。日元和歐元走強(qiáng)至少部分是因?yàn)榻诿缆?lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)的立場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變，該央行釋放信號(hào)稱(chēng)其不急于接著進(jìn)行第二次加息。

This has triggered weakness in the dollar, now back at last October’s level against a basket ofmajor currencies. This makes the job of the ECB and BoJ harder but will be a great relief topolicymakers in many emerging markets. It helps oil exporters that were struggling to keepcurrency pegs in place — especially as a weaker US currency tends to support commodityprices. It takes the pressure off countries that built up huge volumes of dollar-denominateddebt thanks to the excesses encouraged by quantitative easing.

這引發(fā)了美元走低，如今美元對(duì)一籃子主要貨幣的匯率回到了去年10月的水平。這使得歐洲央行和日本央行的工作更難收到成效，但也使得很多新興市場(chǎng)的政策制定者松了一大口氣。美元走低有利于此前難以維系匯率掛鉤的石油出口國(guó)——尤其是因?yàn)槊涝叩屯梢灾未笞谏唐穬r(jià)格。美元走低緩解了美元債務(wù)龐大的國(guó)家身上的壓力，而導(dǎo)致這些國(guó)家積累起龐大美元計(jì)價(jià)債務(wù)的原因，正是當(dāng)初量化寬松所催生的無(wú)節(jié)制行為。

Above all, it has already helped China avert a sharp devaluation in the renminbi — addressingone of the biggest fears that fuelled the turbulence in global markets at the start of the year.The Chinese currency has bounced back from January’s lows, with data from March showing thefirst rise in the country’s foreign exchange reserves in five months.

最重要的是，美元走低已然幫助中國(guó)避免了人民幣急劇貶值——解除了今年年初造成全球市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的最大擔(dān)憂之一。人民幣匯率已經(jīng)從1月的低點(diǎn)有所反彈，3月數(shù)據(jù)表明中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備5個(gè)月來(lái)首次回升。

One theory among investors has been that policymakers reached a tacit understanding on theadvantages of a weaker dollar at February’s G20 meeting — an echo of the 1985 Plaza accord.This seems improbable, given repeated pledges to avoid any targeting of exchange rates.The Fed’s internal deliberations, however, show a growing appreciation of the risks thatglobal financial turbulence and a global slowdown pose to the US recovery.

投資者中間流傳的一種說(shuō)法是，在2月的二十國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)會(huì)議上，各國(guó)的政策制定者就美元走低的好處達(dá)成了默契——1985年廣場(chǎng)協(xié)議(‎Plaza Accord)的情景再次上演?？紤]到各國(guó)再三承諾要避免任何瞄準(zhǔn)匯率的行為，這種情況似乎極不可能。然而，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)內(nèi)部討論表明，該央行日益充分地認(rèn)識(shí)到了全球金融動(dòng)蕩和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇構(gòu)成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Moreover, central banks in advanced economies need to give increasing weight to the effects oftheir actions on emerging economies. The International Monetary Fund warned this week that“spillovers” from China to global financial markets would grow considerably over the next fewyears.

此外，各發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的央行需要日益重視其政策舉動(dòng)對(duì)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的影響。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上周警告稱(chēng)，未來(lái)數(shù)年，中國(guó)對(duì)全球金融市場(chǎng)的“溢出效應(yīng)”將大幅增加。

The Federal Reserve cannot ignore the reality that its actions will have global consequences.The possibility of a shock Chinese devaluation or a debt crisis that might bring downgovernments in emerging markets is a more alarming prospect than the ever-present risks ofsluggish growth in developed economies.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不能忽視其舉動(dòng)將對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)造成的影響。人民幣可能急劇貶值或者可能發(fā)生一場(chǎng)可能讓新興市場(chǎng)多個(gè)政府下臺(tái)的債務(wù)危機(jī)的前景，比始終存在的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長(zhǎng)滯緩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更令人擔(dān)憂。

At present, a policy stance that helps moderate strength in the dollar is in the best interestsof the US and of the global economy. Insofar as any conclusion can be drawn fromunpredictable short term moves in exchange rates, it is that the eurozone and Japan aresuffering collateral damage.

目前，有助于緩和美元走強(qiáng)的政策立場(chǎng)最符合美國(guó)乃至全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的利益。如果可以從變化莫測(cè)的短期匯率波動(dòng)得出任何結(jié)論的話，那就是歐元區(qū)和日本正在承受連帶損害。