全球貿易將迎來第五年低速增長

The global economy will see its fifth consecutiveyear of below-par growth in international trade thisyear, marking its worst period since the 1980s,according to the World Trade Organisation.

據(jù)世界貿易組織(WTO)預測，今年全球經(jīng)濟將遭遇連續(xù)第五年國際貿易增長低于趨勢線，這將是自上世紀80年代以來最糟糕的時期。

In forecasts released yesterday the WTO said itexpected the volume of international trade to growby just 2.8 per cent this year, in line with 2015. Butit said the forecast was laden with downside risks and highlighted an unusual five-year run oftrade growing both below 3 per cent and in line with the broader global economy.

在昨日發(fā)布的預測中，WTO表示，預計今年國際貿易量將僅增長2.8%，與2015年的增幅相同。但該組織表示，這一預測充斥下行風險，并著重指出，貿易量增長連續(xù)五年低于3%水平、且與全球經(jīng)濟整體增長大致同步的情況是不尋常的。

“Such a long, uninterrupted spell of slow but positive trade growth is unprecedented,” WTOeconomists wrote.

“這樣一段漫長、不間斷、緩慢但保持正數(shù)的貿易增長是前所未有的，”WTO的經(jīng)濟學家們寫道。

Yesterday’s forecast marks the first time in recent years that the WTO has not predicted abounce in global trade. It is also emblematic of broader anxieties about the global economy,with the International Monetary Fund widely expected to downgrade its 3.4 per cent forecastfor global growth next week when central bankers and finance ministers go to Washington forthe spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

昨日的預測標志著WTO近年來首次沒有預測全球貿易出現(xiàn)反彈。它也體現(xiàn)了各方對全球經(jīng)濟的整體憂慮。目前人們普遍預期，下周各國央行行長和財長匯聚華盛頓出席國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)春季會議時，IMF將下調其對今年全球經(jīng)濟增長3.4%的預測。

To many economists the unusual patterns in international trade in recent years are just oneexample of how traditional economic relationships have been tested or broken since the 2008global financial crisis.

對許多經(jīng)濟學家來說，近年國際貿易的異常模式，只是2008年全球金融危機爆發(fā)以來傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)貿關系受到考驗或者已經(jīng)破裂的一個例子。

For most of the past three decades world trade has grown at twice the rate of global GDP asglobalisation has accelerated thanks to the emergence of major players such as China andother factors like the plummeting cost of transporting goods.

過去30年的大部分時間里，隨著全球化加快，世界貿易增長速度至少兩倍于全球GDP增速，得益于中國等貿易大國的崛起以及其它因素，如貨運成本大幅下降。

Global trade collapsed in 2009 as the effects of the crisis reverberated through the worldeconomy, before bouncing back in 2010. But since then the volume of goods shipped has beengrowing only slowly and last year marked the first time since the crisis that it contracted invalue terms, though that was partly thanks to a surge in the dollar and falling commodityprices.

隨著金融危機的余波沖擊整個世界經(jīng)濟，全球貿易曾在2009年崩潰，隨即在2010年出現(xiàn)反彈。但是，自那以來貨運量只是緩慢增長，而按價值計算，去年全球貿易出現(xiàn)金融危機以來首次萎縮，盡管這在一定程度上是由于美元飆升和大宗商品價格下跌。

The WTO said that by its calculations the value of world trade in current dollar terms last yearfell by 13 per cent to $16.5tn from $19tn in 2014.

WTO稱，根據(jù)它的計算，去年世界貿易的總價值(按當前美元幣值計算)下降13%，從2014年的19萬億美元降至16.5萬億美元。

According to Robert Koopman, WTO chief economist, part of the problem has been a series ofcrises that has seen demand collapse in a succession of regions. Asian economies, for example,have helped prop up global trade since the 2008 crisis. But last year as China cooled itscontribution fell markedly.

WTO首席經(jīng)濟學家羅伯特•庫普曼(Robert Koopman)稱，一部分問題是一系列危機導致一個又一個地區(qū)需求崩潰。例如，亞洲經(jīng)濟體在2008年爆發(fā)危機后幫助支撐了全球貿易。但隨著中國經(jīng)濟降溫，去年亞洲的貢獻顯著下降。

Roberto Azevedo, the WTO’s director-general, said the recovery in trade was being hurt inpart by a “creeping protectionism” as countries slowly erected new trade barriers.

WTO總干事羅伯托•阿澤維多(Roberto Azevedo)表示，貿易復蘇在一定程度上受到“爬行保護主義”的影響，各方在緩慢設置新的貿易壁壘。

But those barriers remain far less significant than ones set up in the wake of previous crisesand Mr Koopman said the biggest factor in the slowdown was the stagnant demandexacerbated by the slow return of investment.

但是，與以往危機過后的局面相比，這些障礙仍然遠遠沒有那么嚴重。庫普曼表示，貿易放緩的最大因素是需求停滯，而投資復蘇緩慢加劇了問題。