中國欲收購更多境外銅礦確保銅供應(yīng)
中國最大金屬交易商中國五礦集團(tuán)公司(China Minmetals)副總裁焦健(Jerry Jiao)表示，盡管大宗商品價格前景充滿不確定性、大型銅礦項目稀缺，中國仍將繼續(xù)收購境外銅礦資產(chǎn)以確保銅的供應(yīng)。
“China is very short of copper resources,” Jerry Jiao,vice-president of China Minmetals, told the World Copper Conference in Santiago. “The only wayto make stable supply of copper resources . . . going overseas is the only solution.”
在圣地亞哥召開的世界銅業(yè)大會(World Copper Conference)上，焦健表示：“中國極度缺乏銅資源。確保銅資源供應(yīng)穩(wěn)定只有一個辦法……趕赴境外就是這唯一的解決方案。”
The world’s largest mining companies are looking to shed assets as they seek to cut their debtloads and move away from a large diversified business model focused on multiple commodities.Swiss mining company Glencore is looking to sell its Lomas Bayas copper mine in Chile, whilereports have also suggested that US copper miner Freeport-McMoRan may be willing to sell astake in its El Abra mine in the South American country.
目前，全球最大礦企正試圖減輕債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，擺脫關(guān)注多種大宗商品的極為多元化的商業(yè)模式。出于這個原因，這些礦企正在尋求剝離資產(chǎn)。瑞士礦企商嘉能可(Glencore)正在尋求出售位于智利的洛馬斯•巴亞斯(LomasBayas)銅礦。與此同時，還有報道暗示，美國銅礦企業(yè)麥克墨倫自由港銅金公司(Freeport-McMoRan)或有意出售位于智利的艾爾•阿布拉(El Abra)銅礦部分股份。
Minmetals is the owner of the big Las Bambas mine in Peru, which started shipping copper thisyear. It agreed to sell copper concentrate from the mine to a local unit of China’s state-ownedCitic group, it said in January.
五礦集團(tuán)是秘魯拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)大型銅礦的東家，該礦已于今年投產(chǎn)。該集團(tuán)曾在今年1月表示，同意將產(chǎn)自該礦的銅精礦銷售給中國國企中信集團(tuán)(Citic)在國內(nèi)的一家分部。
“We all know there are not many Las Bambas out there, it’s not easy to develop a huge mine,”Mr Jaio said. “It is more and more difficult to get one tonne of copper produced.”
焦健表示：“我們都知道，像拉斯邦巴斯這樣的銅礦并不多，開發(fā)巨型銅礦并不容易。生產(chǎn)每一噸銅礦的難度越來越大。”
Last December China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission saidthat Minmetals, which was founded in 1950, would merge with Metallurgical Corp of China, aninfrastructure and construction group. That will allow the combined entity to control thewhole metals value chain from mining to construction.
去年12月，中國國有資產(chǎn)監(jiān)督管理委員會(State-owned Assets Supervision and AdministrationCommission)曾表示，創(chuàng)立于1950年的五礦集團(tuán)或與基建和建筑集團(tuán)中冶集團(tuán)(Metallurgical Corp ofChina)合并。此舉將令合并后的實體得以控制從采礦到建筑在內(nèi)的整個金屬價值鏈條。
Last year Minmetals copper production rose to a record high of 217,000 tonnes, according tothe official Xinhua News Agency.
根據(jù)中國官方新華社(Xinhua)的報道，五礦集團(tuán)的銅產(chǎn)量曾在去年躍升至21.7萬噸的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高點。
But Minmetals could face severe competition for copper assets from miners such as BHPBilliton and Rio Tinto, who both have positive views on copper. There are also billions of assetsin private equity that could bid for any projects.
不過，五礦集團(tuán)可能會面臨來自必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等礦商對銅資產(chǎn)的激烈爭奪。后兩者都對銅產(chǎn)業(yè)持正面看法。此外，私募股權(quán)領(lǐng)域還有數(shù)以十億計的資產(chǎn)，可能會對任何銅礦類項目發(fā)起競購。
Even miners with stretched balance sheets are not selling their best copper assets as the metalis expected to be in short supply by the end of the decade.
由于在這個十年底結(jié)束時，銅預(yù)計會處于供應(yīng)短缺狀態(tài)，即使是資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表十分緊張的礦商，也不愿出售旗下最好的銅資產(chǎn)。
China has built out its smelting capacity over the past ten years as it has grown to consumeabout 40 per cent of the world’s copper. But it is still reliant on overseas mines for the rawcopper material.
中國在過去十年里積累了巨大的冶煉產(chǎn)能，同期內(nèi)中國也已成長為消耗量約占全球40%的國家。不過，中國仍需依賴境外銅礦，才能滿足對粗銅材料的需求。
China’s copper consumption is akin to a “reverse pyramid,” Mr Jiao said. It consumes about11m tonnes, and produces about 7m tonnes of copper cathode. But it can only supply 1.7mtonnes from its domestic mining.
焦健表示，中國的銅消耗狀況類似于“倒金字塔”。中國的銅消耗量約為1100萬噸，電解銅產(chǎn)量約為700萬噸。然而，中國國內(nèi)采掘的銅供應(yīng)量卻只有170萬噸。
“It’s easy for China to build a smelter but not to find resources,” he said. “Going forward [the]concentrate or mining sector will still occupy a large percentage of value along the wholevalue chain.”
他說：“對中國來說，修建精煉廠十分容易，找到銅資源卻不容易。向銅精礦或采礦業(yè)部門前進(jìn)一步，仍會在整個價值鏈條中占據(jù)很大比例的價值。”
Mr Jiao said that emerging industries in China, such as automotive and renewable energy, areincreasing their intensity of copper use. But the price outlook for the metal depends onwhether China can successfully transition its economy towards these new industries and awayfrom the old industrial sectors.
焦健表示，在中國，汽車和可再生能源等新興產(chǎn)業(yè)正在提高銅的使用率。然而，銅價前景要看中國能否成功讓經(jīng)濟(jì)擺脫舊的工業(yè)部門，轉(zhuǎn)向這類新興產(chǎn)業(yè)。
“If we believe China has made a stable adjustment then we will feel at ease that copper willface a stable and balanced situation,” he said.
他說：“如果我們相信中國已實現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)調(diào)整，我們放心地認(rèn)為，銅產(chǎn)業(yè)將面臨一個穩(wěn)定而平衡的局面。”
However, Goldman Sachs, which has been one of the most bearish banks on copper and othercommodities, warned that if China’s transition to a more consumer-led economy is successful,then copper demand growth is likely to be between flat to about 3 per cent.
不過，作為對銅和其他大宗商品最不看好的銀行之一，高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾警告稱，在中國向消費主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型取得成功的前提下，銅需求增長的可能區(qū)間，也只會在持平到大約3%的增速之間。
“At best, if China manages its bumpy deceleration, which includes a big reduction ininvestment share of GDP over the next three to five years, the copper market will turn,”Goldman analyst Max Layton told the conference.
高盛分析師馬克斯•萊頓(Max Layton)在大會上表示：“在最好的情況下，假如中國磕磕絆絆的降速過程不出差錯——包括在今后三到五年內(nèi)大幅降低投資與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)之比，銅市場將會轉(zhuǎn)向。
“If they perfectly manage this transaction then copper markets should turn. All the otherscenarios that I come up with are worse than that for copper.”
“倘若他們完美實現(xiàn)了這一轉(zhuǎn)型，銅市場應(yīng)該會扭轉(zhuǎn)。對銅產(chǎn)業(yè)來說，我能想到的其他所有情形都比這糟糕。”
