虛擬商業(yè)模式到了實(shí)體世界，會(huì)否格格不入？

ON AUGUST 29TH, as Hurricane Dorian tracked towards America’s east coast, Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla, an electric-car maker, announced that some of his customers in the storm’s path would find that their cars had suddenly developed the ability to drive farther on a single battery charge. Like many modern vehicles, Mr Musk’s products are best thought of as internet-connected computers on wheels. The cheaper models in Tesla’s line-up have parts of their batteries disabled by the car’s software in order to limit their range. At the tap of a keyboard in Palo Alto, the firm was able to remove those restrictions and give drivers temporary access to the full power of their batteries.

八月二十九日，當(dāng)颶風(fēng)多利安向美國(guó)東海岸移動(dòng)時(shí)，電動(dòng)汽車制造商特斯拉的老板伊隆·馬斯克宣布，行駛在颶風(fēng)路徑上的一些客戶會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們的汽車在單次充電后續(xù)航里程突然增加。和許多現(xiàn)代汽車一樣，對(duì)馬斯克的產(chǎn)品最好的比喻是帶車輪的聯(lián)網(wǎng)計(jì)算機(jī)。特斯拉產(chǎn)品線中較低價(jià)車型的軟件禁用了部分電池，以限制其續(xù)航能力。在位于帕洛阿爾托(Palo Alto)的總部的電腦鍵盤(pán)上敲幾下，特斯拉就能夠取消這些限制，讓司機(jī)能臨時(shí)使用電池的全部功率。

Mr Musk’s computerised cars are just one example of a much broader trend. As computers and connectivity become cheaper, it makes sense to bake them into more and more things that are not, in themselves, computers—from nappies and coffee machines to cows and factory robots—creating an “internet of things”, or IoT. It is a slow revolution that has been gathering pace for years, as computers have found their way into cars, telephones and televisions. But the transformation is about to go into overdrive. One forecast is that by 2035 the world will have a trillion connected computers, built into everything from food packaging to bridges and clothes.

馬斯克這些計(jì)算機(jī)化的汽車只是一個(gè)非常廣泛的趨勢(shì)中的一例。隨著計(jì)算機(jī)以及聯(lián)網(wǎng)的成本越來(lái)越低，把它們置入越來(lái)越多本身并非計(jì)算機(jī)的物品——從尿布、咖啡機(jī)，到奶牛和工廠機(jī)器人——就變得順理成章了。“物聯(lián)網(wǎng)”(IoT)由此誕生。隨著計(jì)算機(jī)逐步進(jìn)入汽車、電話和電視，這一慢速革命多年來(lái)一直在加快步伐。但這一變革即將進(jìn)入超速發(fā)展階段。一項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)認(rèn)為，到2035年，全世界將有一萬(wàn)億臺(tái)互聯(lián)計(jì)算機(jī)，它們被置入食品包裝、橋梁和衣服等各種各樣的事物中。

Such a world will bring many benefits. Consumers will get convenience, and products that can do things non-computerised versions cannot. Amazon’s Ring smart doorbells, for instance, come equipped with motion sensors and video cameras. Working together, they can also form what is, in effect, a private CCTV network, allowing the firm to offer its customers a “digital neighbourhood-watch” scheme and pass any interesting video along to the police.

這樣的世界將帶來(lái)許多好處。消費(fèi)者將獲得便利，他們使用的產(chǎn)品具有非計(jì)算機(jī)化的版本不具備的功能。例如，亞馬遜的智能門(mén)鈴Ring配備了動(dòng)作傳感器和攝像頭。這種門(mén)鈴組合起來(lái)還可以充當(dāng)私人閉路監(jiān)控網(wǎng)，讓亞馬遜可以為客戶提供“數(shù)字鄰里守望”方案，并將任何有價(jià)值的視頻傳給警方。

Businesses will get efficiency, as information about the physical world that used to be ephemeral and uncertain becomes concrete and analysable. Smart lighting in buildings saves energy. Computerised machinery can predict its own breakdowns and schedule preventive maintenance. Connected cows can have their eating habits and vital signs tracked in real time, which means they produce more milk and require less medicine when they fall ill. Such gains are individually small but, compounded again and again across an economy, they are the raw material of growth—potentially a great deal of it.

隨著實(shí)體世界中原本瞬息即逝、難以把握的信息變得具體和可分析，企業(yè)將得以提升效率。建筑物中的智能照明節(jié)省了能耗。計(jì)算機(jī)化的機(jī)械裝置可以預(yù)測(cè)自身故障并安排預(yù)防性維護(hù)。把奶牛聯(lián)網(wǎng)后，可以實(shí)時(shí)跟蹤它們的飲食習(xí)慣和生命體征，從而提高產(chǎn)奶量并減少生病時(shí)的用藥。單獨(dú)來(lái)看，這樣的收益很小，但在經(jīng)濟(jì)體中一次次累積疊加，它們就是增長(zhǎng)的原動(dòng)力——而且可能推動(dòng)巨大的增長(zhǎng)。

In the long term, though, the most conspicuous effects of the IoT will be in how the world works. One way to think of it is as the second phase of the internet. This will carry with it the business models that have come to dominate the first phase—all-conquering “platform” monopolies, for instance, or the data-driven approach that critics call “surveillance capitalism”. Ever more companies will become tech companies; the internet will become all-pervasive. As a result, a series of unresolved arguments about ownership, data, surveillance, competition and security will spill over from the virtual world into the real one.

但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)最顯著的影響將體現(xiàn)在世界的運(yùn)作方式上?？梢园盐锫?lián)網(wǎng)視為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展的第二階段。逐漸主導(dǎo)了第一階段發(fā)展的那些商業(yè)模式到了這個(gè)階段仍在延續(xù)，比如所向披靡的“平臺(tái)”壟斷，或被批評(píng)者稱為“監(jiān)控資本主義”的數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)模式。越來(lái)越多的公司將成為科技公司，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將變得無(wú)處不在。結(jié)果，有關(guān)所有權(quán)、數(shù)據(jù)、監(jiān)控、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和安全的一系列未解決的爭(zhēng)議將從虛擬世界蔓延到實(shí)體世界。

Start with ownership. As Mr Musk showed, the internet gives firms the ability to stay connected to their products even after they have been sold, transforming them into something closer to services than goods. That has already blurred traditional ideas of ownership. When Microsoft closed its ebook store in July, for instance, its customers lost the ability to read titles they had bought (the firm offered refunds). Some early adopters of “smart home” gadgets have found that they ceased to work after the firms that made them lost interest.

先說(shuō)說(shuō)所有權(quán)。正如馬斯克所展示的那樣，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)使得公司即使是在賣出產(chǎn)品之后仍能與產(chǎn)品互聯(lián)，這就讓產(chǎn)品變得更像服務(wù)而不僅僅是商品。這就模糊了傳統(tǒng)的所有權(quán)概念。例如，微軟在7月關(guān)閉其電子書(shū)商店后，其客戶就無(wú)法再閱讀已購(gòu)圖書(shū)了(微軟提供了退款)。一些早早嘗鮮“智能”小家電的人發(fā)現(xiàn)，生產(chǎn)這些產(chǎn)品的公司退出這些業(yè)務(wù)之后，它們就無(wú)法使用了。

That tilts the balance of power from the customer to the seller. John Deere, an American maker of high-tech tractors, has been embroiled in a row over software restrictions that prevent its customers from repairing their tractors themselves. And since software is not sold but licensed, the firm has even argued that, in some circumstances, a tractor-buyer may not be buying a product at all, instead receiving only a licence to operate it.

這使得顧客和賣方之間的權(quán)力天平向后者傾斜。美國(guó)高科技拖拉機(jī)制造商約翰迪爾(John Deere)因其軟件限制客戶自行修理拖拉機(jī)而卷入糾紛。由于軟件不是出售而是許可使用，該公司甚至認(rèn)為，在某些情況下，拖拉機(jī)買主買的可能根本就不是產(chǎn)品，而只是使用產(chǎn)品的許可。

Virtual business models will jar in the physical world. Tech firms are generally happy to move fast and break things. But you cannot release the beta version of a fridge. Apple, a smartphone-maker, provides updates for its phones for only five years or so after their release; users of Android smartphones are lucky to get two. But goods such as washing machines or industrial machinery can have lifespans of a decade or more. Firms will need to work out how to support complicated computerised devices long after their original programmers have moved on.

虛擬商業(yè)模式到了實(shí)體世界中將會(huì)格格不入。科技公司通常都喜歡快速行動(dòng)，打破常規(guī)。但是你不能對(duì)冰箱這樣的產(chǎn)品發(fā)布測(cè)試版。智能手機(jī)制造商蘋(píng)果僅在新手機(jī)發(fā)布后五年左右的時(shí)間里為手機(jī)提供系統(tǒng)更新服務(wù)，安卓智能手機(jī)的用戶能享受兩年的更新就不錯(cuò)了。但洗衣機(jī)或工業(yè)機(jī)械等產(chǎn)品的壽命可達(dá)十年或更長(zhǎng)。企業(yè)將需要研究如何在最初的程序員離開(kāi)多年后繼續(xù)支持復(fù)雜的計(jì)算機(jī)化設(shè)備。

Data will be another flashpoint. For much of the internet the business model is to offer “free” services that are paid for with valuable and intimate user data, collected with consent that is half-informed at best. That is true of the IoT as well. Smart mattresses track sleep. Medical implants observe and modify heartbeats and insulin levels, with varying degrees of transparency. The insurance industry is experimenting with using data from cars or fitness trackers to adjust customers’ premiums. In the virtual world, arguments about what should be tracked, and who owns the resulting data, can seem airy and theoretical. In the real one, they will feel more urgent.

數(shù)據(jù)將是另一個(gè)紛爭(zhēng)觸發(fā)點(diǎn)。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上的商業(yè)模式大多是提供“免費(fèi)”服務(wù)，以有價(jià)值的私密用戶數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)償付，而在收集這些數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)用戶頂多也只是在一知半解地情況下做出知情同意的動(dòng)作。在物聯(lián)網(wǎng)中也是如此。智能床墊能監(jiān)測(cè)睡眠。醫(yī)療植入設(shè)備觀測(cè)和調(diào)整心跳及胰島素水平，透明度參差不齊。保險(xiǎn)業(yè)正嘗試用汽車或健身追蹤器的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)調(diào)整客戶保費(fèi)。在虛擬世界中，對(duì)該跟蹤什么數(shù)據(jù)以及誰(shuí)擁有生成的數(shù)據(jù)的爭(zhēng)論似乎也漫不經(jīng)心，不切實(shí)際。而在實(shí)體世界里，這些問(wèn)題會(huì)帶有更多緊迫感。

Then there is competition. Flows of data from IoT gadgets are just as valuable as those gleaned from Facebook posts or a Google search history. The logic of data-driven businesses, which do ever better as they collect and process more information, will replicate the market dynamics that have seen the rise of giant platform companies on the internet. The need for standards, and for IoT devices to talk to each other, will add to the leaders’ advantages—as will consumer fears, some of them justified, over the vulnerability of internet-connected cars, medical implants and other devices to hacking.

再來(lái)看競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。來(lái)自物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設(shè)備的數(shù)據(jù)與從Facebook的帖子或谷歌的搜索歷史中收集到的數(shù)據(jù)一樣有價(jià)值。數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)型企業(yè)的運(yùn)作邏輯是收集和處理的信息越多就越有成效，這將復(fù)制互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上巨型平臺(tái)公司崛起所依賴的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)力。對(duì)統(tǒng)一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設(shè)備之間相互通訊的需求將增加領(lǐng)先企業(yè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)。消費(fèi)者對(duì)聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車和醫(yī)療植入物等設(shè)備易受黑客攻擊的擔(dān)憂(其中一些很合理)也會(huì)加強(qiáng)這種優(yōu)勢(shì)。

Predicting the consequences of any technology is hard—especially one as universal as computing. The advent of the consumer internet, 25 years ago, was met with starry-eyed optimism. These days it is the internet’s defects, from monopoly power to corporate snooping and online radicalisation, that dominate the headlines. The trick with the IoT, as with anything, will be to maximise the benefits while minimising the harms. That will not be easy. But the people thinking about how to do it have the advantage of having lived through the first internet revolution—which should give them some idea of what to expect.

預(yù)測(cè)任何技術(shù)的后果都很難，特別是像計(jì)算這樣普遍使用的技術(shù)。25年前，人們對(duì)消費(fèi)者互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的到來(lái)過(guò)于樂(lè)觀。如今，充斥新聞?lì)^條的是從壟斷力量到企業(yè)窺探和網(wǎng)絡(luò)激進(jìn)主義等互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的缺陷。與對(duì)待任何事物一樣，應(yīng)對(duì)物聯(lián)網(wǎng)的訣竅是將其益處最大化，危害最小化。這并非易事。但是，正在思考如何做到這一點(diǎn)的人們有一個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)：他們已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了第一次互聯(lián)網(wǎng)革命，這應(yīng)該讓他們多少能夠預(yù)見(jiàn)一些未來(lái)。