VOA慢速英語(yǔ)：IMF削減經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)明年經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入衰退

IMF cuts growth, forecasts recession next year
 
WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered bad news for the global economy over the past week. The IMF cut global growth next year to 2.7 percent, warned of sovereign debt defaults and forecast a recession and a bleak market outlook.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke at the week-long annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank multilateral lenders in Washington. "It's tough, but we can meet these challenges," said the audience.

International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas Tweeting some gloomy global economic outlook data on Tuesday, he said: "2023 will feel like a recession for many."

World Bank President David Malpass (David Malpass), IMF Managing Director Georgieva and many prominent economists believe that the global economic slowdown has several factors. War in Ukraine, the pandemic, inflation, a slowing Chinese economy, climate change and a stronger dollar have raised the risk of recession, they said, and "the worst is yet to come", the Financial Times reported on the multilateral lender Agency's latest global outlook.
Growing high-cost debt

Economists believe that high-cost debt and the growing difficulty many countries have in servicing their debt are painful realities. They fear sovereign defaults and expect more debt restructuring requests from emerging and developing economies.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said about 60 percent of low-income countries were either facing debt stress or were at high risk of debt stress.

Elena Duggar, chair of Moody's Macroeconomic Council, predicts that sovereign default rates will rise in the coming years.

Dugger said: "By 2022, we have had six sovereign debt defaults." In general, one or two sovereign debt defaults may occur a year, she said. A sovereign default occurs when a country cannot pay its debts.

Gopinath said: "We do have a number of countries facing sovereign default challenges, several from sub-Saharan."

As she spoke, Some members of the hall could be heard shouting, "Cancel all debts and pay immediately." Some protesters outside the World Bank building also called for greater transparency in the debt mechanism.
High borrowing costs are a major concern. IMF Managing Director Georgieva said at the start of its annual meeting that rising interest rates will start to become a problem.

The United Nations highlighted the global debt crisis in its report Tuesday and called for debt relief for 54 countries around the world. Pakistan, Tunisia, Chad, Sri Lanka and Zambia are seen as facing the most immediate risk of falling into a deepening debt crisis.

The International Monetary Fund said on Saturday it had reached a staff-level agreement with Tunisia on a $1.9 billion bailout package under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

The IMF also resumed its support programme for Pakistan, approving $1.7 billion to Islamabad in August this year.

Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters on Friday that he would seek to reschedule about $27 billion of non-Paris Club debt, most of which was owed to China.
Impact on prices

Guranza expects global inflation to hit 9.5% in the remaining months of 2022. He expects that to drop to 4.1 percent by 2024.

However, his forecast for next year is gloomy, which he says will be a recessionary year for many around the world.

Inflation remains the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and destabilizing macroeconomics, he tweeted on Monday.

However, inflation rates in many developing countries are not in line with global forecasts by the IMF's chief economist. British grocery prices climbed to 13.9% in September, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

Inflation in Egypt jumped 15 percent on Tuesday, the highest level in the past four years, according to Egypt's state-run central public mobilization and census agency.

The World Bank expects inflation to rise to 23 percent next year in Pakistan, a country with about $130 billion in debt.
 
 
中文翻譯： 
IMF削減經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)明年經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入衰退
華盛頓 —
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在過(guò)去一周給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了壞消息。IMF將明年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率下調(diào)至2.7%，警告主權(quán)債務(wù)違約，并預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和市場(chǎng)前景黯淡。
 
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯塔利娜•格奧爾基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)在華盛頓舉行的國(guó)際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行多邊貸款機(jī)構(gòu)為期一周的年度會(huì)議上對(duì)聽(tīng)眾表示:“這是艱難的，但我們能夠應(yīng)對(duì)這些挑戰(zhàn)。”
 
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家皮埃爾-奧利維耶• 古蘭沙(Pierre Olivier Gourinchas)周二在推特上發(fā)布了一些悲觀的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景數(shù)據(jù)，他說(shuō):“對(duì)很多人來(lái)說(shuō)，2023年將感覺(jué)是一場(chǎng)衰退。”
 
世界銀行行長(zhǎng)戴維·馬爾帕斯(David Malpass)、國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁格奧爾基耶娃和許多知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩有幾個(gè)因素。他們說(shuō)，烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、疫情、通貨膨脹、中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩、氣候變化和美元走強(qiáng)，引發(fā)了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而“最糟糕的情況還在后頭”，《金融時(shí)報(bào)》在報(bào)道這家多邊貸款機(jī)構(gòu)最新的全球前景時(shí)表示。
 
日益增長(zhǎng)的高成本債務(wù)
 
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，高成本的債務(wù)和許多國(guó)家在償還債務(wù)方面日益增加的困難是痛苦的現(xiàn)實(shí)。他們擔(dān)心主權(quán)違約，并預(yù)計(jì)新興和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體會(huì)提出更多債務(wù)重組要求。
 
IMF第一副總裁吉塔•戈皮納特(Gita Gopinath)表示，約60%的低收入國(guó)家要么面臨債務(wù)壓力，要么面臨債務(wù)壓力的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
 
穆迪公司宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理事會(huì)主席艾琳娜•達(dá)格爾(Elena Duggar)預(yù)測(cè)，主權(quán)債務(wù)違約率將在未來(lái)幾年上升。
 
達(dá)格爾說(shuō):“到2022年，我們已經(jīng)發(fā)生了6起主權(quán)債務(wù)違約。”她說(shuō)，一般情況下，一年可能會(huì)發(fā)生一到兩次主權(quán)債務(wù)違約。當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家無(wú)法償還債務(wù)時(shí)，就會(huì)發(fā)生主權(quán)違約。
 
戈皮納特說(shuō):“我們確實(shí)有許多國(guó)家面臨主權(quán)違約的挑戰(zhàn)，其中有幾個(gè)來(lái)自撒哈拉以南地區(qū)。”
 
在她講話(huà)時(shí)，可以聽(tīng)到大廳里一些成員的呼喊，說(shuō)“取消所有債務(wù)，立即賠償。”世行大樓外的一些抗議者還呼吁提高債務(wù)機(jī)制的透明度。
 
借貸成本高是一個(gè)重大問(wèn)題。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁格奧爾基耶娃在年度會(huì)議開(kāi)始時(shí)表示，利率上升將開(kāi)始成為一個(gè)問(wèn)題。
 
聯(lián)合國(guó)星期二在報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)了全球債務(wù)危機(jī)，并呼吁減免世界上54個(gè)國(guó)家的債務(wù)。巴基斯坦、突尼斯、乍得、斯里蘭卡和贊比亞被認(rèn)為面臨著陷入日益加深的債務(wù)危機(jī)的最直接風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
 
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織周六表示，它與突尼斯就一項(xiàng) 19 億美元的紓困計(jì)劃在擴(kuò)展基金機(jī)制（EFF）下達(dá)成了工作人員級(jí)別的協(xié)議。
 
國(guó)際貨幣基金組織還恢復(fù)了對(duì)巴基斯坦的支持計(jì)劃，并于今年8月批準(zhǔn)向伊斯蘭堡提供17億美元。
 
巴基斯坦財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)伊沙克·達(dá)爾(Ishaq Dar)周五對(duì)路透表示，他將尋求對(duì)約270億美元的非巴黎俱樂(lè)部債務(wù)的償還期限進(jìn)行重新安排，其中大部分是欠中國(guó)的。
 
對(duì)價(jià)格的影響
 
古蘭沙預(yù)計(jì)，在2022年剩下的幾個(gè)月里，全球通脹率將達(dá)到9.5%。他預(yù)計(jì)，到2024年，這一比例將降至4.1%。
 
然而，他對(duì)明年的預(yù)測(cè)是悲觀的，他稱(chēng)明年對(duì)世界上許多人來(lái)說(shuō)，將是衰退之年。
 
他星期一在推特上說(shuō):“通貨膨脹通過(guò)擠壓實(shí)際收入和破壞宏觀穩(wěn)定，仍然是對(duì)當(dāng)前和未來(lái)繁榮最直接的威脅。”
 
然而，許多發(fā)展中國(guó)家的通貨膨脹率與IMF首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)全球的預(yù)測(cè)不符。據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》周二報(bào)道，9月份英國(guó)食品雜貨價(jià)格攀升至13.9%。
 
據(jù)埃及國(guó)營(yíng)的中央公共動(dòng)員和人口普查機(jī)構(gòu)稱(chēng)，周二，埃及的通貨膨脹率上漲15%，為過(guò)去四年來(lái)的最高水平。
 
世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)明年巴基斯坦的通貨膨脹率將上升到23%，而這個(gè)國(guó)家大約有1300億美元的債務(wù)。