VOA慢速英語(yǔ)：習(xí)近平第三任期是喜是憂？未來(lái)十年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)或難再創(chuàng)輝煌

Is Xi Jinping's third term a joy or a worry? In the next ten years, China's economy may not be able to create new glory again
 
WASHINGTON -
China's overriding task now is to ensure the smooth convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Unprecedentedly strict network control, strict urban stability maintenance atmosphere, and even securities dealers have been notified not to sell large stocks during the meeting to maintain the stability of the stock market.
 
The protagonist of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is Xi Jinping. If nothing else, Xi Jinping will officially start his third five-year term as head of the Communist Party at the meeting. After the end of the Cultural Revolution, the CCP leadership with Deng Xiaoping at its core learned from Mao Zedong and established a rule that the term of office of leaders should not exceed two years, in order to prevent the recurrence of the "lifetime system" and cause great harm to the country.
 
However, observers say, the one issue that will most likely trouble Xi Jinping as he begins his second decade in office is China's economy. In the first ten years of his administration, China's economy has entered a stage of low-speed growth from a high-speed growth stage, and this slowing trend will be difficult to improve in the future according to the effect of the economic policies he adopted in the first ten years. Many experts believe that in the next decade, China's economy will not be more brilliant, only more unstable.
 
In the third quarter of this year, or in the three months of July, August and September, China's economic growth rate was only 2.5 percent year-on-year, an AFP survey of a group of economic experts showed on Saturday. . Many other economic institutions have recently made similar downward revisions to China's economic growth rate. That dashed Beijing's hopes of a sharp economic recovery in the second half of the year.
Since 2022, China's economy has been declining all the way. There was still a 4.8% growth in the first quarter, which almost collapsed in the second quarter, with the growth rate plunging to 0.4%. Experts and scholars in Beijing have predicted that the second half of the year will improve in an all-round way, and a retaliatory growth of more than 8% is expected, and the annual growth target of 5.5% is likely to be maintained. If the 2.5% forecast by experts is roughly accurate, then 5.5% will remain an ironic indicator on the historical record.
 
AFP experts predict that China's economy will grow by 3% this year, less than half of last year's 8.1%. This may be the slowest growth rate in China in 40 years, and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in Wuhan in 2020 caused the economic growth rate to drop to 2.3%.
 
One of the main reasons for the rapid slowdown in China's economic growth is Beijing's policy of clearing and fighting the epidemic. Although China clearly controlled the spread of the virus by closing down the city in the early stage of the epidemic, the effectiveness of this policy was greatly reduced after the emergence of the more infectious Omicron strain. The virus cannot be prevented, but the main restrictive measures under the reset policies such as isolation and city closure have caused huge damage to people's daily life and the normal operation of the economy.
 
China's economy has been growing rapidly for decades, and many economists optimistically predicted that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States by 2030 and become the world's largest economy, CNN said on Saturday. But now, China's economic development is clearly in deep trouble.
 
 
中國(guó)翻譯：
習(xí)近平第三任期是喜是憂？未來(lái)十年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)或難再創(chuàng)輝煌
華盛頓 —
中國(guó)目前壓倒一切的任務(wù)就是確保中共二十大的順利召開(kāi)。網(wǎng)絡(luò)控制空前嚴(yán)厲、城市維穩(wěn)氣氛森嚴(yán)、連證券交易商上也得到通知不要在會(huì)議期間拋售大宗股票，保持股市的穩(wěn)定。
 
這次二十大的主角是習(xí)近平。如果不出意外，習(xí)近平將在這次會(huì)議上正式開(kāi)啟他作為中共黨魁的第三個(gè)五年任期。文革結(jié)束后，以鄧小平為核心的中共領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層從毛澤東身上吸取了教訓(xùn)，設(shè)立了領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人任期不得超過(guò)兩年的規(guī)則，以防止“終身制”的重演，給國(guó)家造成巨大的危害。
 
但是，觀察家認(rèn)為，在習(xí)近平執(zhí)政的第二個(gè)十年開(kāi)始之際，最讓有可能讓他感到棘手的一個(gè)問(wèn)題應(yīng)該就是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。在他執(zhí)政的頭十年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)從高速增長(zhǎng)階段進(jìn)入了低速增長(zhǎng)階段，而且如果按照他在頭十年中所采取的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策效果看這種放緩趨勢(shì)未來(lái)將會(huì)很難好轉(zhuǎn)。許多專家認(rèn)為，在未來(lái)十年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)再創(chuàng)輝煌，只會(huì)更變得更不穩(wěn)定。
 
法新社周六對(duì)一組經(jīng)濟(jì)專家進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，在今年第三季度，也就是七、八、九三個(gè)月里，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速同比增長(zhǎng)只有2.5%。其它許多經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)最近陸續(xù)對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速做了類似的下調(diào)。這打碎了北京對(duì)今年下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅回升的希望。
 
進(jìn)入2022年以來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)一路下滑。第一季度還有4.8%的增長(zhǎng)，到第二季度幾乎崩潰，增速銳減到0.4%。北京的御用專家學(xué)者們?cè)娂婎A(yù)測(cè)，下半年將全面好轉(zhuǎn)，可望出現(xiàn)8%以上的報(bào)復(fù)性增長(zhǎng)，全年5.5%的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)有可能保住。如果專家預(yù)測(cè)的2.5%大體是準(zhǔn)確的，那么，5.5%將會(huì)以一個(gè)具有諷刺性的指標(biāo)留在歷史的記錄上。
 
法新社的專家們預(yù)測(cè)，今年全年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速為3%，連去年8.1%的一半都不到。這可能是中國(guó)四十年來(lái)最低的增速，而2020年武漢爆發(fā)新冠肺炎更是經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降至2.3%。
 
造成中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速急速放慢的主要原因之一是北京一直堅(jiān)持的清零抗疫政策。中國(guó)雖然在疫情初期通過(guò)封城明顯地控制了病毒的傳播，但在具有更強(qiáng)傳染力的奧密克戎毒株出現(xiàn)以后，這種政策的效力大打折扣。病毒防不勝防，反而是那些隔離、封城等清零政策下的主要限制性措施給人們的日常生活和經(jīng)濟(jì)的正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)造成了巨大的破壞。
 
美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)CNN周六說(shuō)，之前，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)數(shù)十年，許多經(jīng)濟(jì)家樂(lè)觀預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)GDP將在2030年超過(guò)美國(guó)，成為世界最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。但是眼下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展顯然已經(jīng)深陷困境。
 
CNN說(shuō)，習(xí)近平雖然是中國(guó)權(quán)力最大的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，但中國(guó)的巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)成就顯然與他無(wú)關(guān)。相反，習(xí)近平近年來(lái)采取的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不僅沒(méi)有推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，反而造成許多嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。
 
在最近兩年，中國(guó)一流的民營(yíng)科技企業(yè)在習(xí)近平推動(dòng)的所謂“反壟斷”和“國(guó)家安全”的名義下遭到了嚴(yán)厲的整肅和處罰，阿里巴巴、騰訊、滴滴出行等大批企業(yè)盈利大幅縮水、裁員持續(xù)不斷，陷入了艱難自保的境地。
 
據(jù)中國(guó)方面的數(shù)據(jù)，阿里巴巴和騰訊在過(guò)去兩年市值損失了一萬(wàn)多億美元。
 
2020年，中國(guó)監(jiān)管部門(mén)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱行業(yè)—-房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理，切斷了銀行向債務(wù)杠桿率高的企業(yè)發(fā)放貸款，捅破了該行業(yè)的巨大的債務(wù)泡沫。當(dāng)一個(gè)個(gè)大型開(kāi)發(fā)商陷入違約危機(jī)，爛尾樓引發(fā)業(yè)主集體停貸的社會(huì)騷亂時(shí)，當(dāng)局被迫改變政策，給這些開(kāi)發(fā)商和業(yè)主提供信貸幫助，以度過(guò)危機(jī)。
 
然而沒(méi)人能保證政府出手就一定能化解開(kāi)發(fā)商的違約潮。中國(guó)還必須面對(duì)國(guó)際局勢(shì)的動(dòng)蕩、俄烏戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)帶來(lái)的能源供應(yīng)渠道重新組合、地緣政治大洗牌，尤其是中國(guó)堅(jiān)持保留“武統(tǒng)”臺(tái)灣所造成政治漣漪效應(yīng)，等等。所有上述不穩(wěn)定的因素都會(huì)間接或直接影響到中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能否在高速發(fā)展創(chuàng)奇跡。有專家指出，目前的國(guó)際局勢(shì)類似第一次世界大戰(zhàn)和第二次世界大戰(zhàn)之間的局勢(shì)。當(dāng)時(shí)并未真正結(jié)束的一戰(zhàn)為二戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)埋下了導(dǎo)火索。如果因上述能源、俄烏戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)加劇造成全球供應(yīng)鏈重組、國(guó)際聯(lián)盟重組以及中國(guó)不得不以武力統(tǒng)一臺(tái)灣，那中國(guó)則將完全喪失再創(chuàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)輝煌的機(jī)遇，習(xí)近平第三次連任也救不了中國(guó)。