演講MP3+雙語文稿:電子游戲的變革性力量

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[演講者及介紹]Herman Narula

企業(yè)家，程序員。Herman Narula為網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲和虛擬世界開發(fā)了新技術(shù)，這將極大地影響我們的生活、社交和娛樂方式。

[演講主題]電子游戲的變革性力量

[中英文字幕]

00:01

Hello. My name is Herman, and I've alwaysbeen struck by how the most important, impactful, tsunami-like changes to ourculture and our society always come from those things that we least think aregoing to have that impact.

大家好。我叫赫爾曼。我一直在思考為何這世上最重要、最具影響力、最能翻天覆地，改變我們文化和社會總是來自于那些我們不認為會產(chǎn)生影響的事情。

00:17

I mean, as a computer scientist, I rememberwhen Facebook was just image-sharing in dorm rooms, and depending upon who youask, it's now involved in toppling elections. I remember when cryptocurrency orautomated trading were sort of ideas by a few renegades in the financialinstitutions in the world for automated trading, or online, for cryptocurrency,and they're now coming to quickly shape the way that we operate. And I thinkeach of you can recall that moment where one of these ideas felt like someignorable, derisive thing, and suddenly, oh, crap, the price of Bitcoin is whatit is. Or, oh, crap, guess who's been elected.

作為一個計算機科學(xué)家，我記得當(dāng)臉書還只是個大學(xué)寢室發(fā)家的圖片分享網(wǎng)站，而現(xiàn)在，基于你問誰，臉書已經(jīng)可以左右我們的大選。我記得當(dāng)加密貨幣和自動交易還只是小眾人的想法存在金融行業(yè)，自動交易行業(yè)，和網(wǎng)絡(luò)上。而它們現(xiàn)在正加速塑形著我們的辦事習(xí)慣。你們每個人都應(yīng)該記得一種時刻，當(dāng)一個想法看起來一無是處，但突然，它發(fā)展得正似比特幣價值般突飛猛進。你再想想，誰當(dāng)選了美國總統(tǒng)？

00:54

The reality is that, you know, from myperspective, I think that we're about to encounter that again. And I think oneof the biggest, most impactful changes in the way we live our lives, to theways we're educated, probably even to how we end up making an income, is aboutto come not from AI, not from space travel or biotech -- these are all veryimportant future inventions -- but in the next five years, I think it's goingto come from video games.

現(xiàn)實是，在我看來，我們將會再次遇到這情況。我認對我們生活，對我們?nèi)绾问芙逃?，對我們?nèi)绾螔旯べY有著最大影響的并非來自于人工智能技術(shù)，并非是太空旅行或者生物科技，雖然這些都是非常重要的科技，但在下五年，我認為最大影響來自于電子游戲。

01:22

So that's a bold claim, OK. I see someskeptical faces in the audience. But if we take a moment to try to look at whatvideo games are already becoming in our lives today, and what just a little bitof technological advancement is about to create, it starts to become more of aninevitability. And I think the possibilities are quite electrifying. So let'sjust take a moment to think about scale.

好大的口氣！我知道。我也看到了觀眾中質(zhì)疑的臉。但讓我們試著看看電子游戲當(dāng)下已變成了什么, 以及一點點的技術(shù)進步將會創(chuàng)造出什么，我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)電子游戲的影響是越來越不可避免的。我認為它的可能性窮乎其窮。讓我們想想它的規(guī)模。

01:42

I mean, there's already 2.6 billion peoplewho play games. And the reality is that's a billion more than five years ago. Abillion more people in that time. No religion, no media, nothing has spreadlike that. And there's likely to be a billion more when Africa and India gainthe infrastructure to sort of fully realize the possibilities of gaming. Butwhat I find really special is -- and this often shocks a lot of people -- isthat the average age of a gamer, like, have a guess, think about it. It's notsix, it's not 18, it's not 12. It's 34. [Average age of an American gamer] It'solder than me. And that tells us something, that this isn't entertainment forchildren anymore. This is already a medium like literature or anything elsethat's becoming a fundamental part of our lives.

現(xiàn)今已經(jīng)有著26億人玩電子游戲。比五年前，多了十億。五年內(nèi)增加了十億人。沒有任何一個宗教和媒體可以如此大規(guī)模發(fā)展。我們可以展望下一個十億的增加，當(dāng)非洲和印度的科技發(fā)展到位，可以充分發(fā)揮電子游戲的可能性。但我感到十分特別的是，這常常會驚到他人，是玩家的平均年齡。你們猜一猜。并不是六歲，不是18歲，也不是12歲。是34歲。[美國玩家平均年齡] 我都比這年輕。這也告訴我們，游戲不再是兒童的娛樂。它已成為像文學(xué)一般的媒介，是我們生活不可或缺的一部分。

02:26

One stat I like is that people whogenerally picked up gaming in the last sort of 15, 20 years generally don'tstop. Something changed in the way that this medium is organized. And more thanthat, it's not just play anymore, right? You've heard some examples today, butpeople are earning an income playing games. And not in the obvious ways. Yes,there's e-sports, there's prizes, there's the opportunity to make money in acompetitive way. But there's also people earning incomes modding games,building content in them, doing art in them. I mean, there's something at ascale akin to the Florentine Renaissance, happening on your kid's iPhone inyour living room. And it's being ignored.

我很喜歡的一組數(shù)據(jù)顯示了在過去十五到二十年中開始打游戲的人們不會放棄這個喜好。在這一媒介發(fā)展的途中，有些東西變了。這已經(jīng)大于游戲本身，人們不再僅僅是玩游戲了。你聽到過這些例子，人們現(xiàn)在通過打游戲掙工資。還不是通過直接的游戲競技。是的，現(xiàn)今有電子競技，有獎金，有很多機會可以讓人們從競賽中掙錢。但是也有很多人正在游戲中模組，設(shè)計橋段，在游戲中做藝術(shù)，通過這些得到薪酬。這種規(guī)?？氨确鹆_倫薩文藝復(fù)興，而這一切可能就發(fā)生在你的客廳里孩子正玩弄的iPhone中。它被很多人忽略了。

03:02

Now, what's even more exciting for me iswhat's about to happen. And when you think about gaming, you're probablyalready imagining that it features these massive, infinite worlds, but thetruth is, games have been deeply limited for a very long time in a way thatkind of we in the industry have tried very hard to cover up with as muchtrickery as possible. The metaphor I like to use, if you'd let me geek out fora moment, is the notion of a theater. For the last 10 years, games havemassively advanced the visual effects, the physical immersion, the front end ofgames. But behind the scenes, the actual experiential reality of a game worldhas remained woefully limited. I'll put that in perspective for a moment. Icould leave this theater right now, I could do some graffiti, get in a fight,fall in love. I might actually do all of those things after this, but the pointis that all of that would have consequence. It would ripple through reality --all of you could interact with that at the same time. It would be persistent.And those are very important qualities to what makes the real world real.

現(xiàn)在，讓我更加興奮的是未來還會發(fā)生什么。當(dāng)你想到游戲，你可能已經(jīng)在想象游戲中無限的世界，但其實，游戲在很長一段時間中，都被限制了，而我們這些業(yè)界人士一直努力用各種伎倆把這一事實掩蓋。我喜歡用一個比喻，讓我變身極客稍許賣弄一下，就是劇場的概念。在過去的十年中，游戲的視覺效果得到了很大的提升，包括前端效果和視覺沖擊。但在幕后，游戲世界的經(jīng)驗實在仍然被限制。我來解釋一下。我現(xiàn)在可以離開這個舞臺。我可以去涂鴉，可以打架，可以墜入愛河。我可能真的會在這演出之后做這些事，但是，這些事會有后果。這些事會改變我的現(xiàn)實，所有人可以在同一時間做出反應(yīng)。它的影響是持續(xù)性的。這也就是真實世界真實的重要原因。

03:59

Now, behind the scenes in games, we've hada limit for a very long time. And the limit is, behind the visuals, the actualinformation being exchanged between players or entities in a single game worldhas been deeply bounded by the fact that games mostly take place on a singleserver or a single machine. Even The World of Warcraft is actually thousands ofsmaller worlds. When you hear about concerts in Fortnite, you're actually hearingabout thousands of small concerts. You know, individual, as was said earliertoday, campfires or couches. There isn't really this possibility to bring itall together. Let's take a moment to just really understand what that means.When you look at a game, you might see this, beautiful visuals, all of thesethings happening in front of you.

但在游戲幕后，我們很長一段時間都被限制了。在視覺效果背后，在單個游戲世界中玩家之間或物體之間交換的實際信息已經(jīng)被一個事實所深深束縛, 即游戲大多發(fā)生在一臺服務(wù)器或一臺機器上。就算是“魔獸世界”，也是幾千個小世界. 當(dāng)你在“堡壘之夜”中看到一場演唱會時你其實看到的 是幾千場小演唱會。這些全都是獨自存在的，無論是游戲里面的篝火還是沙發(fā)。我們沒有什么機會將這些世界聯(lián)合到一起。讓我們來想一想這是什么意思。當(dāng)你在玩一個游戲時，你可能會看到美好的視覺效果，許多事在你眼前發(fā)生。

04:40

But behind the scenes in an onlinegame, all you see is just a little bitof information being exchanged by a tiny handful of meaningful entities orobjects. You might be thinking, "I've played in an infinite world."Well it's more that you've played on a treadmill. As you've been walkingthrough that world, we've been cleverly causing the parts of it that you're notin to vanish, and the parts of it in front of you to appear. A good trick, butnot the basis for the that I promised you in the beginning of thistalk.

但是每一個網(wǎng)上游戲的幕后，看到的僅僅是一點點信息交換于一小撮對象或物品。你可能在想，“我正在探索一個無限的世界?！逼鋵崳銉H僅只是在跑步機上前進。在你探索游戲世界時，我們很聰明地使你沒到的地方消失不見，而你正處在的地方顯示出來。這是一個不錯的小伎倆，但是這并不能成為我剛剛向你們保證的游戲革命的基石。

05:09

But the reality is, for those of you thatare passionate gamers and might be excited about this, and for those of youthat are afraid and may not be, all of that is about to change. Becausefinally, the technology is in place to go well beyond the limits that we'vepreviously seen. I've dedicated my career to this, there are many others workingon the problem -- I'd hardly take credit for it myself, but we're at the pointnow where we can finally do this impossible hard thing of weaving togetherthousands of disparate machines into single simulations that are convenientenough to not be one-offs, but to be buildable by anybody. And to be at thepoint where we can start to experience those things that we can't yet fathom.

但我想告訴你們之中對此非常興奮的狂熱玩家和感到些許恐懼或毫無反應(yīng)的人們這一切將要改變。因為，我們的科技終于到位了，可以跨域我們之前遇到的瓶頸。這是我的事業(yè)，還有其他的戰(zhàn)友一起在研究這個，我不想把這個功勞加在我身上，但我們現(xiàn)在終于可以開始做以前我們認為完全不可能的事：把幾千臺獨立的機器聯(lián)合到一個模擬世界中，這個模擬世界并非由一方所控制并建造的，而是可以被所有人建造的。在那時，我們會開始經(jīng)歷我們現(xiàn)在還無法想象的事。

05:45

Let's just take a moment to visualize that.I'm talking about not individual little simulations but a massive possibilityof huge ne TED and me had a back-and-forth on this. I'll just [take] a moment to show you some ofthis stuff.

讓我們想一下。我說的并不是單獨的模擬世界，而是一個巨大的交互網(wǎng)絡(luò)。全球性事件可以發(fā)生在其中。這些事在現(xiàn)實世界中的可做不到那么大的規(guī)模。我現(xiàn)在給你們看看。

06:19

This is a single game world with thousandsof simultaneous people participating in a conflict. It also has its ownecosystem, its own sense of predator and prey. Every single object you see hereis simulated in some way. This is a game being built by one of the biggestcompanies in the world, NetEase, a huge Chinese company. And they've made anassistant creative simulation where groups of players can cocreate together,across multiple devices, in a world that doesn't vanish when you're done. It'sa place to tell stories and have adventures. Even the weather is simulated. Andthat's kind of awesome.

這是一個單獨的游戲世界，其中，數(shù)千人同時參與了一場沖突。這個世界有獨自的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，自主分類出的捕食者和獵物。你在這里看到的每一個物體都是以某種方式模擬出來的。這個游戲是世界上最大的公司之一，網(wǎng)易，一個中國公司。他們創(chuàng)建了一個創(chuàng)造性輔助模擬世界，很多玩家組可以用不同的機器一起創(chuàng)造一個游戲世界，這個世界不會在你創(chuàng)立完后消失。在這個世界中，人們可以講故事，可以暢游冒險。游戲中的天氣也是模擬的。這太棒了。

06:50

Andthey found a way to model, basically, an entire planet. They're going to have asimulation with millions of non-player characters and players engaging. Theyactually grabbed Lawrence Lessig to help understand the political ramificationsof the world they're creating.

他們找到了一種方式 來建模整個星球。他們將要建造一個模擬世界，有百萬個非玩家和玩家角色共同創(chuàng)造。他們還邀請了勞倫斯·萊斯格 來幫助他們認清 他們所創(chuàng)建的世界的政治影響。

07:12

This is the sort of astounding set ofexperiences, well beyond what we might have imagined, that are now going to bepossible. And that's just the first step in this technology.

這是一種令人震驚的經(jīng)歷，遠超過我們所想象的，而如今成為了現(xiàn)實。這僅僅是這種科技的第一步。

07:20

So if we step beyond that, what happens?Well, computer science tends to be all exponential, once we crack the reallyhard problems. And I'm pretty sure that very soon, we're going to be in a placewhere we can make this type of computational power look like nothing. And whenthat happens, the opportunities ...

所以若我們跨過那一步，什么會發(fā)生？計算機科學(xué)傾向于指數(shù)增長，在我們解決很難的問題后。我確定在很近的未來，我們會到達一個境界那時，這種計算機技術(shù)根本不算什么。那時，我們的機會窮乎其窮。

07:37

It's worth taking a moment to try toimagine what I'm talking about here. Hundreds of thousands or millions ofpeople being able to coinhabit the same space. The last time any of us as aspecies had the opportunity to build or do something together with that maypeople was in antiquity. And the circumstances were less than optimal, shall wesay. Mostly conflicts or building pyramids. Not necessarily the best thing forus to be spending our time doing. But if you bring together that many people,the kind of shared experience that can create ... I think it exercises a socialmuscle in us that we've lost and forgotten.

花點時間想想我說的是什么。成百上千，百萬的人可以棲息在在同一空間。上一次我們?nèi)祟愑袡C會大規(guī)模共同塑造還是在古典時代。而當(dāng)時的環(huán)境可沒如今那么完美。人類當(dāng)時不是戰(zhàn)火紛飛，就是在造金字塔。并不是我們應(yīng)該花時間做的。但如果現(xiàn)在你可以組織起這么多人它創(chuàng)造出的共同體驗，無法想象。我認為，它可以活動我們體內(nèi)被忽略了很久的社會肌肉。

08:10

Going even beyond that, I want to take amoment to think about what it means for relationships, for identity. If we cangive each other worlds, experiences at scale where we can spend a meaningfulamount of our time, we can change what it means to be an individual. We can gobeyond a single identity to a diverse set of personal identities. The gender,the race, the personality traits you were born with might be something you wantto experiment differently with. You might be someone that wants to be more thanone person. We all are, inside, multiple people. We rarely get the opportunityto flex that.

在這之上，我想談?wù)勥@對于關(guān)系，對于身份的影響。如果我們能給彼此世界，給彼此經(jīng)驗，我們花大量的有意義時間，我們就能改變個體的意義。我們可以超越單一的身份，去擁抱更多元的個人身份。性別，種族，這些與生俱來的特征可以變成你可以 嘗試變化的。你可以成為有多重身份的人。在我們的內(nèi)心深處，我們都是幾個不同的人。而我們以前沒有機會展示這些。

08:41

It's also about empathy. I have agrandmother who I have literally nothing in common with. I love her to bits,but every story she has begins in 1940 and ends sometime in 1950. And everystory I have is like 50 years later. But if we could coinhabit, co-experiencethings together, that undiminished by physical frailty or by lack of context,create opportunities together, that changes things, that bonds people indifferent ways. I'm struck by how social media has amplified our manydifferences, and really made us more who we are in the presence of otherpeople. I think games could really start to create an opportunity for us toempathize again. To have shared adversity, shared opportunity.

這也有關(guān)同理心。我的祖母我和她沒有任何共同點。我愛她至深，但她講的每一個故事都始于1940年代，終于1950年代而我的故事都發(fā)生在五十年后。但如果我們可以共同棲息共同體驗，而不被物理上的隔閡或背景環(huán)境的缺失所阻礙，我們可以共同創(chuàng)造機會，這會改變很多事，它以不同的方式把人們聯(lián)系在一起。我深刻地感受到社交媒體放大了人與人之間的不同，并可以讓我們在他人面前展示真實的自己。而我相信游戲也會開始創(chuàng)建這樣的機會，讓我們可以擁有同理心。同甘共苦，分享機會。

09:19

I mean, statistically, at this moment intime, there are people who are on the opposite sides of a conflict, who havebeen matchmade together into a game and don't even know it. That's anincredible opportunity to change the way we look at things.

數(shù)據(jù)上來看，在這個時代身處對立戰(zhàn)國的人們可能在一個網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲中匹配為戰(zhàn)友 而他們對此一無所知。這是一個非常棒的機會，讓我們改變看待事物的方法。

09:33

Finally, for those of you who perhaps aremore cynical about all of this, who maybe don't think that virtual worlds andgames are your cup of tea. There's a reality you have to accept, and that isthat the economic impact of what I'm talking about will be profound. Right now,thousands of people have full-time jobs in gaming. Soon, it will be millions ofpeople. Wherever there's a mobile phone, there will be a job. An opportunity forsomething that is creative and rich and gives you an income, no matter whatcountry you're in, no matter what skills or opportunities you might think youhave. Probably the first dollar most kids born today make might be in a game.That will be the new paper route, that will be the new opportunity for anincome at the earliest time in your life.

現(xiàn)在，你們之中對這感到有些懷疑的人，你們可能覺得虛擬世界或者游戲并非是你們所喜歡的。但你們得接受一個事實，就是它的經(jīng)濟效益會是深遠的?，F(xiàn)在，上千人將游戲作為他們的全職工作，這個數(shù)字馬上會上升至百萬人。哪里有手機，哪里就有工作。這個機會充滿著創(chuàng)新的機會，無論你身處何方，都可以有工資拿無論你覺得自己的資歷和機會好不好。而現(xiàn)今出生的孩子們賺的的一塊錢 很有可能就是在游戲中。這將成為一個新的收入渠道，新的薪資來源在你非常年輕的時候。

10:12

So I kind of want to end with almost aplea, really, more than thoughts. A sense of, I think, how we need to face thisnew opportunity a little differently to some we have in the past. It's sohypocritical for yet another technologist to stand up on stage and say,"The future will be great, technology will fix it." And the realityis, this is going to have downsides. But those downsides will only be amplifiedif we approach, once again, with cynicism and derision, the opportunities thatthis presents. The worst thing that we could possibly do is let the same fouror five companies end up dominating yet another adjacent space.

所以我想以一個懇求，而非一個想法來結(jié)束我的演講。我們應(yīng)該如何面對這個新的機會，我覺得應(yīng)該和過去的我們有些不同。臺上站著個科技人員告訴大家 “未來是美好的，因為科技可以改變一切” 這好像有一點虛偽。事實是，這個機會當(dāng)然會有缺點，但是這些缺點會被放大若我們以犬儒主義和嘲笑的態(tài)度來面對它所帶來的機會。我們可以做到最糟糕的就是讓同樣的四五個大公司再次壟斷了一個產(chǎn)業(yè)空間。

10:47

（Applause）

（掌聲）

10:49

Because they're not just going to definehow and who makes money from this. The reality is, we're now talking aboutdefining how we think, what the rules are around identity and collaboration,the rules of the world we live in. This has got to be something we all own, weall cocreate.

因為他們不只會定義如何以及誰能從中賺錢。事實是，我們現(xiàn)在談?wù)摰膶鲗?dǎo)我們的思維，影響我們對于身份和合作定下的條規(guī)，改變這個世界的秩序。這些一定要成為所有人共同擁有的，共同創(chuàng)造的。

11:05

So, my final plea is really to thoseengineers, those scientists, those artists in the audience today. Maybe some ofyou dreamed of working on space travel. The reality is, there are worlds youcan build right here, right now, that can transform people's lives. There arestill huge technological frontiers that need to be overcome here, akin to thosewe faced when building the early internet. All the technology behind virtualworlds is different. So, my plea to you is this. Let's engage, let's allengage, let's actually try to make this something that we shape in a positiveway, rather than once again have be done to us.

所以我最終的請求面向觀眾中所有的工程師所有的科學(xué)家，所有的藝術(shù)家。也許你們暢想過太空之旅。但事實是，在這里，在這一時刻就有很多世界等待著你們的創(chuàng)造，它們會永遠地改變?nèi)藗兊纳?。仍有巨大的技術(shù)前沿需要我們?nèi)スタ苏莆眨拖裨缙诮⒒ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)的時候一樣。建立虛擬世界的科技是非常獨特的。我的懇求就是，讓我們都參與進來，參與進來！讓我們把它變成一件我們可以積極創(chuàng)造的事，而不是再次變得被動。

11:40

Thank you.

謝謝。

11:41

（Applause）

（掌聲）