金融時報:央行的“浮士德式討價還價”

央行的“浮士德式討價還價”

Guggenheim Partners首席投資官斯科特·邁納德(Scott Minerd)。

測試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識：

unravel [,?n'ræv?l] v.闡明；解決；拆散

Federal Reserve notes 聯(lián)邦儲備券，即美元

portfolio [p??t'f??l???] n.文件夾；證券投資組合

basis point 基點(diǎn)，金融常用術(shù)語，一個基點(diǎn)為萬分之一即0.01%

Operation Twist 扭轉(zhuǎn)操作，即賣出短期債券買入長期債券，目的在不擴(kuò)張資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模下緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)情況。

insolvent [?n's?lv(?)nt] adj.破產(chǎn)的，資不抵債的；n.破產(chǎn)者。

centennial [sen'ten??l] adj.一百年的；n.百年紀(jì)念

evanescent [i?v?'nes(?)nt] adj.容易消散的

Beware the Faustian bargains of central banks (811 words)

In Goethe’s 1831 drama Faust, the devil persuades a bankrupt emperor to print and spend vast quantities of paper money as a short-term fix for his country’s fiscal problems. As a consequence, the empire ultimately unravels and descends into chaos. Today, governments that have relied on quantitative easing instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history.

As a result of multi-trillion-dollar quantitative easing programmes, central banks have compromised their ability to control the money supply, making them vulnerable to runaway inflation. When interest rates rise, the value of central bank assets could fall below the face value of their liabilities, potentially rendering them incapable of protecting the purchasing power of their currencies. To better understand the potential consequences of quantitative easing, it is useful to review the historical evolution of central banking. Early central banks were essentially clearing houses for gold. Individuals and trading companies placed their bullion on deposit and received a claim that could be redeemed upon demand. The system’s strength was largely derived from its simplicity. Today’s global monetary system, by contrast, has virtually no gold backing and depends entirely on faith that central bankers can control the supply of paper money.

When founded in 1913, the Federal Reserve’s definition of eligible reserve assets was extended beyond gold to include short-term bills and then in the 1930s, Treasury securities. The problem with using Treasury securities as a reserve asset is that, unlike gold, Treasuries have duration. This means that in a rising interest rate environment, the value of the Federal Reserve’s asset portfolio could potentially decline below the face value of its liabilities (Federal Reserve notes).

In 2008, just before the first of two rounds of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve had $41bn in capital and roughly $872bn in liabilities, resulting in a debt to equity ratio of roughly 21-to-one. The Federal Reserve’s portfolio had $480bn in Treasury securities with an asset duration of about 2.5 years. Therefore, a 100 basis point increase in interest rates would have caused the value of its portfolio to fall by 2.5 per cent, or $12bn. A loss of that magnitude would have been severe but not devastating.

By 2011, the Fed’s portfolio consisted of more than $2.6tn in Treasury and agency securities, mortgage bonds and other fixed income assets, and its debt-to-equity ratio had dramatically increased to 51-to-one. Under Operation Twist, the Fed swapped its short-term securities holdings for longer-term ones, thereby extending the duration of its portfolio to more than eight years. Now, a 100 basis point increase in interest rates would cause the market value of the Federal Reserve’s assets to fall by about 8 per cent, or $200bn, leaving it insolvent, with a capital deficit of about $150bn. Hypothetically, a 5 per cent rise in interest rates could cause a trillion dollar decline in the value of the Federal Reserve’s assets.

As the economy continues to expand, the Federal Reserve will eventually seek to normalise monetary policy, resulting in higher interest rates. In this scenario, the central bank could find that the market value of its portfolio has declined to the point where it no longer has enough sellable assets to adequately reduce the money supply and maintain the purchasing power of the dollar. Given US dependence on foreign capital flows, if the stability of the dollar is drawn into question, the ability of the US to finance its deficits may falter. The Federal Reserve could then find itself the buyer of last resort for Treasury securities. In doing so, the government would become hostage to its printing press, and a currency crisis or runaway inflation could take hold.

To hedge against deterioration in the dollar’s purchasing power, investors have already begun migrating towards hard assets such as gold, commercial property, and artwork. Other assets likely to perform well in the immediate term because of the effects of quantitative easing are credit-related instruments including bank loans and asset-backed securities. European equities are likely to outperform US equities over coming years because of ongoing balance sheet expansion by the European Central Bank. Long-duration, fixed-rate assets such as government bonds are likely to underperform in the years ahead, indicating that now may be a better time to sell Treasury securities than buy them.

Less than half a year before the centennial of central banking in the US, neither policy makers nor investors have much to celebrate. By abandoning monetary orthodoxy and pursuing large-scale asset purchases, global central banks have increased the risk of inflation and compromised their ability to stamp it out. It is too early to predict exactly how this Faustian bargain will play out; but, with each additional paper note that rolls off the printing press or gets conjured up in the ether, the likelihood of a happy ending becomes increasingly evanescent.

請根據(jù)你所讀到的文章內(nèi)容，完成以下自測題目：

1.Why is it that when interest rates rise, the value of assets could fall?

A. The central bank made such a rule.

B. Higher interest rates mean inflation, and thus asssets devalue.

C. Higher interest rates indicate that investors are not going to buy assets unless they are sold cheaper.

D. There's no cause and effect between these two phenomena.

答案(1)

2.According to the passage, what is the wrong description of early financial systems?

A. People used gold as currency.

B. Banks issued gold receipts as paper money.

C. Powerful bankers had the ability to cause inflation.

D. Early central banks were essentially clearing houses for gold.

答案(2)

3.Which one of the following is correct about the Federal Reserve?

(Hint: money issued by a central bank is considered its debt.)

A. It is the first central bank in the world.

B. It is a department in the cabinet.

C. Quantitative Easing dramatically increased the Fed's debt scale.

D. By 2011, the Fed's debt-to-equity ratio is about 51%.

答案(3)

4.What can we infer from the following sentence?

···global central banks have increased the risk of inflation and compromised their ability to stamp it out.

A. Central banks can "print money" very easily.

B. Central banks would suffer reserve asset losses if they themselves raise interest rates.

C. Central banks can feel free to make huge asset purchases that inject money into the economy.

D. All the above are correct.

答案(4)

* * *

(1) 答案：C.Higher interest rates indicate that investors are not going to buy assets unless they are sold cheaper.

解釋：這是一個有趣的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)問題。市場利率上升，意味著投資者比以前更不愿投資，除非同樣的資產(chǎn)給出更高的回報（如儲蓄、債券等的更高利率）， 或者以更便宜的價格買這筆資產(chǎn)（價格下降）。對于已經(jīng)發(fā)行的證券來說，就意味著其價值下跌。

(2) 答案：C.Powerful bankers had the ability to cause inflation.

解釋：作者指出，早先的銀行，與今天不同，它們必須有相應(yīng)的黃金儲備才能發(fā)行“黃金收據(jù)”也就是紙鈔。 而今天的央行可以很容易地增加貨幣供應(yīng)。ABD三項都是正確的，在原文第二段中，D項是原文。

(3) 答案：C.Quantitative Easing dramatically increased the Fed's debt scale.

解釋：A項原文中并未提及，世界上第一家現(xiàn)代中央銀行是英格蘭銀行，它在1833年取得了發(fā)行無限法償銀行券的地位。B項也是不正確的，美聯(lián)儲不是聯(lián)邦政府內(nèi)的一個部門。D，文中第五段提到，By 2011,its debt-to-equity ratio had dramatically increased to 51-to-one. 是51倍，而不是51%。

(4) 答案：D.All the above are correct.

解釋：ABC三項都是正確的，讀懂了這句話，你就懂得了這篇文章作者想要說些什么。今天的央行，不像過去那樣依賴黃金儲備，而是以各種證券資產(chǎn)作為發(fā)行貨幣的儲備。 糟糕的是，這些資產(chǎn)是有持續(xù)期（久期）的，也就是說如果利率上升，它們的價值就會下跌。央行的量化寬松——即用印來的錢買債券——不僅把大量貨幣注入經(jīng)濟(jì)體，推高了通脹的風(fēng)險，還削弱了央行本身用加息以抗通脹的能力。