異類:不一樣的成功啟示錄 第14期:鐵的規(guī)律

Barnsley went home at night,

回家之后的那個晚上，

and looked at the birth dates of as many professional hockey players as he could find.

巴恩斯利盡可能地收集了許多職業(yè)曲棍球運(yùn)動員的出生日期，

He saw the same pattern.

結(jié)果他發(fā)現(xiàn)了同樣的規(guī)律。

Barnsley, his wife, and a colleague, A. H. Thompson, then gathered statistics

于是，巴恩斯利、他的妻子和他的一位同事一起

on every player in the Ontario Junior Hocky League.

對安大略青少年曲棍球聯(lián)賽的所有球員進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計分析，

The story was the same.

得到的結(jié)果還是如此：

More players were born in January

1月份出生的球員在人數(shù)上

than in any other month,

遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過其他月份出生的球員。

and by a overwhelming margin.

占有壓倒性優(yōu)勢。

The second most frequent birth month? February.

排在第二位的呢?2月份。

The third? March.

第三位的呢?3月份。

Barnsley found that there were nearly five and a half times as many Ontario Hocky League players born in January

巴恩斯利發(fā)現(xiàn)，在安大略曲棍球聯(lián)賽中，

as were born in the end of the year, in November.

1月份出生的球員人數(shù)幾乎是年末12月份出生球員人數(shù)的5.5倍。

He looked at the all-star teams of eleven-year-olds and thirteen-year-olds,

巴恩斯利又調(diào)查了著名球隊中所有11歲和13歲的球員

the young players selected for elite traveling squads. Same story.

這些球員將來是巡回賽的中堅力量，結(jié)果依舊如此。

He looked at the composition of the National Hockey League. Same story.

他又調(diào)查了曲棍球國家隊，結(jié)果仍舊毫不例外。

The more he looked, the more Barnsley came to believe that what he was seeing was not a chance of occurance

越是調(diào)查，巴恩斯利越是相信，他發(fā)現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)象絕非偶然，

but an iron law of Canadian Hockey:

而是加拿大曲棍球運(yùn)動一項鐵的規(guī)律：

that anytime you look at a league group of hockey players, the very best of the best,

如果你觀察曲棍球運(yùn)動的那些佼佼者，那些卓越者中的卓越者

you could reliably assume that 40 percent of the players were born tween January and March,

無論何時，你都能夠發(fā)現(xiàn)，1月至3月出生的球員比例為40%，

30 percent between April and June,

4月至6月出生的球員比例為30%,

20 percent between July and September,

7月至9月出生的球員比例為20%，

and 10 percent between October and December.

10月至12月出生的球員比例為10%。

"In all my years in psychology, I have never run into an effect this large," Barnsley says.

“我從事心理學(xué)研究許多年，還從來沒有看到過這樣明顯的例子，”巴恩斯利說，

"You don't even need to do any statistical analysis, you just look at it."

“你用不著去作統(tǒng)計分析，瞧一下就知道。”

What would you have seen if you look at that Medicine Hat roster?

回顧梅迪辛哈特猛虎隊的例子，你是否發(fā)現(xiàn)，

Seventeen out of the twenty five players on the team

25名球員中，

were born in January, February, March, or April.

有17名球員出生在1月份、2月份、3月份或者是4月份。

Here is the play-by-play for the first two goals in the Memorial Cup final,

以下是紀(jì)念杯賽決賽前面兩個進(jìn)球的現(xiàn)場解說，

only this time I've substituted the players birthdays for their names.

只不過這次,我用球員的生日代替了球員的名字。

It no longer sounds like the championship of Canadian junior hockey.

結(jié)果，這段解說的內(nèi)容聽起來不再像是加拿大青少年曲棍球冠軍爭奪戰(zhàn)，

It now sounds like a strange sporting ritual

反倒像是一群有著星座符號，

for teenage boys born under the astrologic signs Capricorn, Aquarius, and Pisces.

出生在摩羯座、寶瓶座和雙魚座時段的青少年，進(jìn)行的一場陌生的體育宗教典禮活動。