財(cái)富精英勵(lì)志演講 第38期:巴菲特:決定你成功的因素(8)
我所不能理解的是，這16 個(gè)如此高智商的能人怎么就會(huì)玩這樣一個(gè)游戲。
You know I think it is madness.
簡(jiǎn)直就是瘋了。
It is produced by an overall reliance to same extenton things.
某種程度上，他們的決定基本上都依賴于一個(gè)客觀上的聯(lián)系。
You know those guys would tell me back at Salomon, a six Sigma event wouldn’t touch us,or aseven Sigma event.
他們?cè)谒_門兄弟公司時(shí)和我說(shuō)過(guò)，一個(gè)六或七西格瑪?shù)氖录莻涣怂麄兊摹?/p>
But they were wrong. I mean that history does not tell you the probabilities of future financialthings happening.
但是他們錯(cuò)了，歷史是不會(huì)告訴你將來(lái)某一金融事件發(fā)生的概率的。
And they had a great reliance on mathematics. And they thought that the data of the stocktold you something about the risk of the stock.
他們很大程度上也依賴于數(shù)學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)，他們認(rèn)為關(guān)于股票的數(shù)據(jù)掲示了股票的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
It doesn’t tell you a damn thing about the risk of the stock in my view.
我認(rèn)為那些數(shù)據(jù)根本就不會(huì)告訴你股票的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)!
And Sigmas do not tell you about the risk of going broke in my view and maybe now in theirview too.
我認(rèn)為數(shù)據(jù)也不會(huì)掲示你破產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。也許他們現(xiàn)在也這么想了。
But you know I don’t like even use them as an example, because they are, I mean the samething in a different way could happen to any of us probably,
亊實(shí)上，我根本不想用他們來(lái)作例子，因?yàn)樗麄兊慕?jīng)歷換一種形式，很可能發(fā)生在我們中的任何一個(gè)人身上。
where we really have a blind spot about something that is crucial, because we know a whole lotof something else.
即使我們懂得再多的知識(shí)，只要在關(guān)鍵處有盲點(diǎn)，就很可能會(huì)功虧一簣。
It is like Henry Kauffman said the other day:people who are going broke in this situation are oftwo types, the ones who know nothing and the ones who know everything.
正像亨利·考夫曼所說(shuō)的，破產(chǎn)的多是兩類人：一是一竅不通者;一是學(xué)富五車者。
It is sad in a way.
這其實(shí)是令人悲哀的。
I urge you, at anything, we never basically borrow money.
我建議你們，不管在什么情況下，都不要借錢。
I mean we get insurance business in duty, but I never borrowed money,I never borrow moneyeven when I had 10,000 bucks basically, what difference did it make?
我們是從來(lái)不借錢的，即使有保險(xiǎn)做擔(dān)保。即使是在我只有1萬(wàn)美元的時(shí)候，我也決不借錢。借錢能帶來(lái)什么不同嗎?
I was having fun as I went along and it didn’t matter whether I had 10,000 dollars or a milliondollars or ten million dollars,
只憑我一己之力時(shí)我也樂(lè)趣無(wú)窮。一萬(wàn)美元，一百萬(wàn)美元和 一千萬(wàn)美元對(duì)我都沒有什么不同。
you know like if I had a medical emergency or something that come along like that.
當(dāng)然，當(dāng)我遇到類似緊急醫(yī)療亊件的情況下會(huì)有些例外。
But I was going to do the same things when I had a lot of money as when I had a very littlemoney.
不過(guò)，在錢多錢少的情況下，我都會(huì)做同樣的亊情。
If you think about the difference between me and you, in terms of how we live,
如果你從生活方式的角度來(lái)想想你們和我的不同，
you know, we wear the same clothes basically, SunTrust gives me mine, but you...so we wearthe same clothes, we eat, you know, we all have chance to drink the juice of God here.
我們穿的是同樣的衣服，當(dāng)然我的是 SunTrust給的;就吃的來(lái)說(shuō)， 我們都有機(jī)會(huì)喝上帝之泉，
We all go to McDonald’s or better yet, Dairy Queen, and we live in a house that is warm inwinter and cool in summer.
我們都去麥當(dāng)勞，或者去好一點(diǎn)的地方，去奶酪皇后店;我們都住在冬暖夏涼的房子里。
And we watch the Nebraska and Texas A & M game on big screen (TV).
我們都在平板大電視上看內(nèi)布拉斯加大學(xué)和德克薩斯農(nóng)工大學(xué)的橄欖球比賽。
You see it the same way as I see it We do everything (the same). Our lives are not thatdifferent.
我們做同樣的亊情。我們的生活沒什么不同。
You’ll be given some medical care when something happened to you while I'll be given somemedical care.
有病時(shí)，你能得到不錯(cuò)的醫(yī)療，我也一樣。
The only thing we do is we travel differently, you know, I ride on a little plane, I love it. Andthat takes money.
唯一的不同可能是我們旅行的方式不同， 我有我的私人飛機(jī)來(lái)周游世界，我很軎歡，這可能要花點(diǎn)錢。
But if you leave that aside, if you leave that we travel differently, but other than travel, youknow, think about it, think. What can I do that you can't do?
但是除了這個(gè)之外，你們?cè)傧胂?，我能做的你們有什么不能做?
