金融世界 第二十三講

金融世界 第二十三講
這一講我們要跟您談?wù)劧兰o(jì)末發(fā)生在亞洲的金融危機(jī)。
澳洲廣播電臺(tái)金融節(jié)目主持人巴里克拉克首先介紹了這場(chǎng)亞洲金融風(fēng)暴是如何爆發(fā)的。他在談話(huà)中使用了這樣一些詞匯：
1 overseas creditors 海外債權(quán)人
2 international capital flows 國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)
3 short-temp3 capital 短期資本
4 herd behavior 群體恐慌行為
巴里克拉克說(shuō)：
The crisis became evident in July, 1997. Overseas creditors began withdrawing short-temp3 capital from the region, placing intense pressure on the exchange rates for the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea.
These five countries had been heavily dependent on international capital flows. In 1996, there was an inflow of $US 93 billion. But a year later the flow was reversed. In 1997 there was an outflow of $12 billion.
As capital was withdrawn from the region and the exchange rates of the five countries depreciated, or fell, panic set in amongst foreign creditors.
The result was a deepening spiral. As capital was withdrawn, the exchange rate depreciated, leading to more capital outflows.
Economists call these panics 'herd behaviour'; where the creditors in a market all rush, or stampede, for the exit, trying to get out first.
Usually, their behaviour is not based on the real underlying economic conditions in the market (the fundamentals), but rather on the behaviour and expected behaviour of other creditors.
接下來(lái)我們把巴里克拉克的這段談話(huà)及中文翻譯分段聽(tīng)一遍：(英文略)
這場(chǎng)危機(jī)在一九九七年七月變得顯而易見(jiàn)。海外債權(quán)人開(kāi)始從這一地區(qū)撤出短期資本，使泰國(guó)、印尼、馬來(lái)西亞、菲律賓和韓國(guó)這五國(guó)貨幣的兌換率受到極大壓力。
這五國(guó)都嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)國(guó)際資本的注入。一九九六年，流入這些國(guó)家的資本是九百三十億美元，但一年之后資本的流向逆轉(zhuǎn)。一九九七年時(shí)有一百二十億美元的資本流出。
隨著資本撤出這一地區(qū)以及五國(guó)的貨幣匯率下調(diào)或跌落，外國(guó)債權(quán)人開(kāi)始感到恐慌。
其結(jié)果是惡性循環(huán)。隨著資本的撤出，匯率下跌，導(dǎo)致更多的資本流出。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家稱(chēng)這種恐慌是群體恐慌行為，就是市場(chǎng)上的債權(quán)人全都蜂擁或驚慌地要搶先退出市場(chǎng)。
通常他們不是根據(jù)市場(chǎng)的基本經(jīng)濟(jì)條件(根本準(zhǔn)則)來(lái)采取行動(dòng)，而是根據(jù)其他債權(quán)人的行為或是預(yù)計(jì)的行為來(lái)采取行。