誰將是2014年索契冬奧會獎牌榜贏家？

Who Will Win the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics Medal Race?

誰將是2014年索契冬奧會獎牌榜贏家?

More than 1,000 years ago, the Vikings evolved into fierce, intimidating conquerors. Now the Norsemen are at it again, this time in the form of the Olympic team from tiny Norway.

This country of five million people is poised to pull off one of the great triumphs in sports by winning the overall medal race and likely the most gold medals at the Sochi Olympics. The Wall Street Journal's medal projections for Sochi suggest the Norwegians will win 33 medals, one more than a strong team from the U.S., whose population is roughly 65 times as large. The two countries should be neck and neck for the internationally coveted spot atop the gold-medal table as well. Deep teams from Canada and Germany could challenge for supremacy, too -- and keep an eye on the Russians with their home-snow advantage.

Norway's Winter Olympics success over the years represents one of the unlikeliest feats in sports. Though it last swept the medal tables at a Winter Games in 1968, the country is the all-time leader in both gold and total Winter Olympics medals. And even though it lacks Cold War political ramifications, the 'Knut vs. Goliath' battle between Norway and the U.S. in Sochi should make for one of the most entertaining Olympic medals races.

At bottom, it's a competition between two diametrically opposed approaches to success in Olympic sports. The U.S. will bring 230 athletes and challenge for medals in everything from speed and figure skating to alpine skiing and Nordic combined, an event that requires both cross-country skiing and ski jumping. Meanwhile, Norway will focus its fire almost exclusively on Nordic sports that involve some form of cross country and ski jumping.

'We concentrate where we can do well, and on what is closest to our hearts,' said Gerhard Heiberg, the International Olympic Committee member who organized the 1994 Games in Lillehammer.

At last year's World Championships in Nordic sports, Norway won 16 gold medals and 30 overall. If it repeats that performance in Sochi, it could conceivably win both medal races without even bringing ice skates, alpine skis or a curling stone to Sochi.

The Journal's forecasting system, which has proved accurate to within a few medals in the last two Olympics, takes into account basic information such as interviews with experts and the performances of athletes in recent national and international competitions. But rather than simply anointing first-, second- and third-place finishers in each event, the model assigns probabilities to the top medal contenders, then uses those probabilities to project the most likely outcomes.

For instance, Germany's two top duos in doubles luge -- Tobias Wendl/Tobias Arlt and Toni Eggert/Sascha Benecken -- have won every World Cup event this season. They have finished one-two in six of eight races. Together, the two teams are a combined 80% favorite to win the gold by our count. A tandem from Austria has a 20% chance.

On the other hand, Ted Ligety, the American alpine skiing champion, performs in far more competitive events. He is the world's best technical skier, but he hasn't been on a Super G podium this season, even though he is the defending world champion in that event, so his chances of prevailing in Super G are just 25%.

To compile the figures, we enlisted sports actuary John Dewan, founder of Stats LLC, to tally the probabilities and run 1,000 simulations of the Games.

Norway won the most gold medals in 471 of these simulations, including ties, beating the U.S., which won the most golds 439 times. Germany (141), Canada (58) and Russia (48) were next. The results in the overall medal race lean significantly toward Norway, which won the most medals 549 times, compared with 369 for the U.S.

Relative long shots by comparison are Canada, with 154 simulated overall medal wins; Russia, with 32; and Germany, with 28.

A warning to Winter Olympics gamblers: Predicting outcomes of events that take place on slippery surfaces and on blades a few millimeters thick can be a fool's errand. The outcome of the medal tables could turn on a split-second brush with the wall.

In Vancouver in 2010, the U.S. slaughtered the competition in the overall medals race, winning 37 overall, seven more than second-place Germany. The Canadians collected a world-best 14 golds on home snow and ice after investing $100 million to improve their efforts. During the next three years, Team USA became even more formidable: It dominated world championships in alpine skiing last year, Kikkan Randall became the world's fastest freestyle Nordic skier and Tim Burke won a silver medal in the biathlon world championships.

Also working in favor of the U.S.: The IOC in 2011 added two more competitions in snowboarding and freestyle skiing, sports at which the U.S. excels. And it added women's ski jumping, an event that now has an American world champion in Sarah Hendrickson. The stage appeared set for a U.S. triumph in enemy territory.

Then the Americans caught the injury bug. On Aug. 23, Evan Lysacek, the defending gold medalist in figure skating, tore his hip labrum, and Hendrickson tore her ACL and MCL in a training jump. Lysacek will miss the Games. Hendrickson just got back on snow three weeks ago. Earlier last year, two-time gold medalist in snowboard cross Seth Wescott tore his ACL filming a movie in Alaska. In December skier Lindsey Vonn, the defending downhill champion and a threat to win five medals, reinjured her ACL, removing her from contention.

'You're simply not going to replace a Lindsey Vonn,' says Alan Ashley, chief of Sport Performance at the U.S. Olympic Committee. Ashley says winning 37 medals again is 'imaginable,' but will go no further than that.

Ashley is responsible for channeling the USOC's resources where the organization believes it has the best chances to excel. Since 2010, the organization has steered several million dollars from BMW toward the bobsled competition, enlisting the sponsor to design a new two-man sled for an American team that often features the sport's most gifted athletes -- Olympic sprinters Lolo Jones and Lauryn Williams are on the team this year -- but trails the Germans in technology. Now, American bobsledders, including Steve Holcomb, who piloted the victorious four-man crew in Vancouver, could win as many as four medals in Sochi.

The problem for Team USA is that it needs to win medals in sports that are unpredictable. Alpine skiing produced two gold medals and eight overall for the U.S. in Vancouver. Ligety and 18-year-old prodigy Mikaela Shiffrin are the best at their events, but in alpine skiing, a momentary gaffe can mean the difference between a gold medal and 12th place.

Norway, on the other hand, specializes in cross-country skiing and biathlon, which combines cross country and sharpshooting. They are the most medal-rich sports of the games, producing 69 medals -- and among the least competitive.

Throughout the 90-year history of the Winter Games, just four countries -- Germany, Norway, France, and Russia and its Soviet predecessors -- have won nearly three-quarters of biathlon medals. In cross-country skiing, five countries have won 82% of the medals.

Aksel Lund Svindal, who is something of an oddity as a Norwegian alpine world champion, says nearly all the best athletes in his country pursue cross-country skiing, so Norway's projected success in Sochi doesn't surprise him. 'When the best talent goes into sports that the U.S. doesn't hear about and you have a good program, it makes sense.'

Norway is continuing to reap the benefits of hosting the 1994 Winter Games in Lillehammer. The 20-somethings leading the Norwegian Olympic team now -- cross-country stars Martin Sundby, Petter Northug and Therese Johaug -- were young children then. They grew up on the new training facilities built for those Games, when the country recommitted itself to success at the Winter Olympics.

But Heiberg, the Lillehammer organizer, has a different message: Beware of the Russians. 'The Russians have mobilized so much that they will be hard to beat on home ground,' he says.

Indeed, U.S. medal totals jumped to 10 golds and 34 overall in Salt Lake in 2002 from six and 13 in 1998 in Nagano. Canada doubled its gold-medal haul to 14 in Vancouver from seven in Turin in 2006. The Russian team won just three gold medals and 15 overall in 2010, after which then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev forced the head of Russia's Olympic Committee to resign as punishment for the lackluster showing.

Russian sports officials have built new ski-jumping, bobsled and curling training facilities in recent years. They recruited foreign experts and athletes to bolster the Russian national teams. Led by Viktor Ahn, a former South Korean short-track speedskating champion, the Russians last month took the 5,000-meter relay at the European championships.

The Russians will also have a huge team in Sochi, with some 225 athletes. 'Even in the Soviet era, we didn't have as big a team for the Winter Olympics as we will have in Sochi,' Alexander Zhukov, the Russian Olympic Committee president, said at a recent news conference. Officials have said Russia has a shot at winning medals in 11 sports, up from seven in Vancouver.

Men's hockey is the priority. In recent years Russia's top pro league has recruited the country's NHL stars, including Ilya Kovalchuk, back to the motherland to prepare for the Games. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would be watching closely as Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Malkin take on Team USA on Saturday, Feb. 15, though the Russians will likely have to beat the defending champion Canadians to win the gold medal.

As Canada proved in 2010, it isn't just about hockey (or curling) anymore. Like the American team, the Canadians are deep and well-rounded. Dominique Maltais and Maelle Ricker are dominant in snowboard cross. Patrick Chan is a favorite for figure-skating gold, and his country may win the sport's first team gold medal, a new event.

And what of Germany, the world's pre-eminent winter-sports country since unification? The Germans should clean up in luge, as usual, but they have fallen off in biathlon, which historically has been a strength. Its best biathlete, Magdalena Neuner, winner of three medals in Vancouver, two of them gold, retired in 2012 at 25, in part to pursue a fashion career.

Still Michael Vesper, Germany's chef de mission for Sochi, predicts his country will take home at least 30 medals. 'We have to do better in the new sports,' Vesper said recently. 'In snowboarding and moguls, we didn't get any medals in Vancouver. We think we can get some this time.'

Perhaps Germany might be better off sticking to what has traditionally made it so strong. That strategy seems to be working just fine for Norway.

一千多年前，維京人一度變成狂熱的、令人生畏的征服者。現(xiàn)在這些北歐人又要卷土重來了，這次可能是憑借挪威奧運代表隊在冬奧會上的出色表現(xiàn)征服觀眾。

挪威是一個只有五百萬人口的小國，但該國很可能在索契冬季奧運會的獎牌榜和金牌榜上位列第一?！度A爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)對索契冬奧會獎牌榜的預測顯示，挪威隊有望摘取33塊獎牌，比實力強勁的美國隊還多一塊，而美國的人口大約是挪威的65倍。對于國際各國都希望占據(jù)的金牌榜首位來說，挪威和美國應該會有同樣強勁的實力去爭奪。加拿大隊和德國隊也可能依靠其實力來沖擊獎牌，而俄羅斯隊的主場優(yōu)勢也是值得留意的。

多年來，挪威在冬奧會上的出色表現(xiàn)是體育界最難實現(xiàn)的壯舉之一。盡管挪威上一次包攬冬奧會金牌榜和獎牌榜首位還是在1968年，但從歷史上看，該國奪得的冬奧會金牌和獎牌數(shù)量一直位居前列。雖然挪威與美國在冬奧會上的爭奪缺乏冷戰(zhàn)政治色彩，但“北歐霸主與美國巨人”的較量還是會成為索契冬奧會最有看頭的獎牌爭奪戰(zhàn)之一。

歸根結底，這是兩種截然相反的奧運成功模式之間的競爭。美國將派出230名運動員，爭奪從速度滑冰和花樣滑冰到高山滑雪和北歐兩項運動(同時包含了越野滑雪和跳臺滑雪的運動項目)的所有項目獎牌。而挪威幾乎全部的奪獎實力都在北歐兩項運動上。

國際奧委會(International Olympic Committee)委員海伯格(Gerhard Heiberg)說，我們將把精力集中在那些我們能做好的項目上，集中在那些與我們心靈貼得最近的項目上。海伯格曾組織舉辦了1994年利勒哈默爾冬奧會。

在去年的北歐兩項世界杯賽事上，挪威摘取了16塊金牌，并總計贏得了30塊獎牌。如果在索契冬奧會上能有同樣的發(fā)揮，挪威就可能在金牌榜和獎牌榜都占據(jù)首位，甚至都不必參與滑冰、高山滑雪和冰壺項目的爭奪。

《華爾街日報》的獲獎預測模型在過去兩屆奧運會中的預測準度可達到與實際情況所差無幾的水平。該系統(tǒng)將采訪得到的專家意見和運動員近期在全國及國際賽事中的表現(xiàn)納入考量。不過該模型并非簡單推斷每項賽事獲勝的前三名選手，而是對角逐獎牌的頂尖選手施以概率，然后使用這些概率來測算出最有可能的結果。

舉個例子，雙人雪橇的兩個德國最佳組合——文德爾(Tobias Wendl)/阿爾特(Tobias Arlt)和埃格特(Toni Eggert)/貝內(nèi)肯(Sascha Benecken)攬獲了本賽季世界杯雙人雪橇比賽的全部獎杯。八場比賽中，他們有六場包攬了第一第二的成績。根據(jù)我們的計算，這兩個組合加起來有80%的可能會贏得金牌。一只來自奧地利的隊伍則有20%的可能。

而美國高山滑雪冠軍利蓋蒂(Ted Ligety)的獎牌角逐要激烈得多。他的滑雪技術全世界無人能敵，但雖然他是超大回轉(zhuǎn)(Super G)比賽的衛(wèi)冕冠軍，本賽季他尚未贏得任何獎牌，因此他衛(wèi)冕成功的幾率僅有25%。

為對數(shù)據(jù)進行編制，我們邀請來體育數(shù)據(jù)分析師、Stats LLC創(chuàng)始人德萬(John Dewan)對概率進行計算，然后對賽事進行了一千次的模擬分析。

在全部模擬中，挪威有471次贏得金牌總數(shù)量最多或與美國打平，后者在439次模擬中登頂金牌榜。隨后分別是德國(141次)、加拿大(58次)和俄羅斯(48次)。獎牌總數(shù)方面，挪威在549次模擬中贏得的獎牌總數(shù)最多，而美國為369次。

相比之下加拿大、俄羅斯和德國沖頂獎牌榜的幾率要小一些，三個國家贏得獎牌總數(shù)最多的模擬次數(shù)依次為154次、32次和28次。

但是這里有一條對獎牌榜預測的警告：對于運動員在極滑的冰面上穿著幾毫米厚的冰刀比賽的賽事而言，想要預測其結果可能只是徒勞。因此，獎牌榜可能瞬息萬變。

在2010年的溫哥華冬奧會上，美國隊以37塊獎牌榮登獎牌榜之首，比位列第二的德國隊多出7塊獎牌。東道主加拿大隊以14塊金牌榮登金牌榜之首。為了在這屆比賽中取得好成績，加拿大整整投入了1億美元。在這屆冬奧會結束后的三年里，美國隊表現(xiàn)出了更強的實力。在去年舉行的世界高山滑雪錦標賽上美國隊大放異彩，蘭德爾(Kikkan Randall)奪得自由式滑雪冠軍，伯克(Tim Burke)在冬季兩項比賽中摘得一枚銀牌。

為美國隊增添優(yōu)勢的是，2011年國際奧委會決定在冬奧會滑板滑雪和自由式滑雪項目中增添兩個小項，這都是美國隊的強項。國際奧委會還決定增加女子跳臺滑雪項目，美國選手亨德里克森(Sarah Hendrickson)曾在世錦賽中贏得該項目的冠軍。這似乎都為美國隊在索契冬奧會上取得勝利創(chuàng)造了條件。

但傷病是美國隊奧運奪金路上的阻礙。去年8月23日，花樣滑冰男單冬奧會衛(wèi)冕冠軍萊薩切克(Evan Lysacek)臀大肌拉傷，亨德里克森在一次訓練中拉傷了膝關節(jié)前叉韌帶和膝內(nèi)側(cè)副韌帶。萊薩切克將因此缺席索契冬奧會，亨德里克森三周前剛剛返回賽場。去年早些時候，奪得兩屆冬奧會男子單板越野滑雪賽冠軍的維斯考特(Seth Wescott)在阿拉斯加拍攝一部電影時拉傷了膝關節(jié)前叉韌帶。冬奧會女子高山速降衛(wèi)冕冠軍、在五個項目上有奪獎希望的沃恩(Lindsey Vonn)去年12月膝關節(jié)前叉韌帶再度受傷，無緣索契冬奧會。

美國奧委會(U.S. Olympic Committee)體育成績負責人阿什利(Alan Ashley)說，沒人能取代沃恩。他說，索契冬奧會上美國代表團的獎牌數(shù)有可能達到上屆的37枚，但要超越這一數(shù)字就不可能了。

阿什利負責調(diào)配美國奧委會的資源。2010年以來，美國奧委會已經(jīng)把寶馬(BMW)提供的數(shù)百萬美元贊助費投入到雪車項目中，并且邀請寶馬為美國雪車隊設計了一款新的男子雙人座雪車。美國雪車隊一直有實力強勁的選手，今年的參賽者包括奧運會女子田徑運動員瓊斯(Lolo Jones)和威廉姆斯(Lauryn Williams)，但在技術方面美國隊仍遜德國隊一籌。包括霍爾康博(Steve Holcomb)在內(nèi)的美國雪橇選手有望在本屆索契冬奧會上奪得四枚獎牌。霍爾康博帶領的美國隊曾經(jīng)在溫哥華冬奧會上奪得男子四人座雪車項目的金牌。

美國隊面臨的困難是它必須在難以預測的項目上奪得獎牌。在上屆溫哥華冬奧會上，美國隊在高山滑雪比賽中奪得兩枚金牌，共八枚獎牌。利蓋蒂和18歲的天才選手謝夫林(Mikaela Shiffrin)是奪獎熱門選手。但在高山滑雪比賽中，一個偶然的失誤就可能意味著從第一名跌落到第十二名(最后一名)。

挪威隊的優(yōu)勢項目是越野滑雪和冬季兩項(包括越野滑雪和射擊兩項)，這兩個項目一共將產(chǎn)生69枚獎牌，競爭并不激烈。

在冬奧會走過的90年歷史中，四個國家——德國、挪威、法國、俄羅斯及其前身蘇聯(lián)——囊括了冬季兩項近四分之三的獎牌。五個國家囊括了越野滑雪82%的獎牌。

挪威高山滑雪世界冠軍斯文達爾(Aksel Lund Svindal)說，在他的國家，幾乎所有最好的運動員都投身于越野滑雪，因此挪威在索契冬奧會取得預料中的成就不會令他感到驚訝。他說，一旦最優(yōu)秀的人才從事很多美國人都沒聽說過的運動時，你就有了一個不錯的項目，這是有道理的。

挪威仍在從1994年主辦利勒哈默爾冬奧會的經(jīng)歷中獲益。目前引領挪威奧運代表隊爭奪獎牌的20多歲的年輕人(包括越野滑雪名將松德比(Martin Sundby)、諾薩格(Petter Northug)和喬奧格(Therese Johaug))那時還都是孩子。這些人是在為那次冬奧會興建的新訓練設施中長大的。

然而海伯格有一個不同的看法：要注意俄羅斯人。他說，俄羅斯人已經(jīng)進行了如此大的動員，在主場贏過他們會很難。

2002年鹽湖城冬奧會，美國金牌數(shù)從1998年長野冬奧會的六塊增至10塊，獎牌總數(shù)從13塊增至34塊。2010年溫哥華冬奧會，加拿大金牌總數(shù)從2006年都靈冬奧會上的7塊增至14塊。2010年，俄羅斯隊只摘取了四塊金牌，獎牌總數(shù)也只有15塊。之后，時任俄羅斯總統(tǒng)的梅德韋杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)要求俄羅斯奧委會主席辭職，以此作為奧運會表現(xiàn)不佳的一種懲罰。

近些年來，負責體育事務的俄羅斯官員已經(jīng)建造了新的跳臺滑雪、雪車和冰壺訓練設施。他們聘請了外國專家和運動員來幫助俄羅斯國家隊提高成績。上個月，在前韓國短道速滑名將維克托•安(Viktor Ahn，安賢洙)的帶領下，俄羅斯隊在歐洲短道速滑錦標賽上奪取了5,000米短道速滑接力的冠軍。

俄羅斯將在索契冬奧會上派出規(guī)模龐大的代表隊，人數(shù)約為225人。俄羅斯奧委會主席茹科夫(Alexander Zhukov)在最近的一次新聞發(fā)布會上表示，即使在蘇聯(lián)時代，我們也沒有派出如此大的代表隊來參加冬奧會。一些官員認為，俄羅斯可能在11項運動中具備爭奪獎牌的實力，而溫哥華冬奧會時只有7項。

這要以男子冰球為首。最近幾年，俄羅斯已經(jīng)將在卡瓦利丘克(Ilya Kovalchuk)等在美國國家冰球聯(lián)盟(NHL)效力的明星召回本土，以便為奧運會作準備。俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京(Vladimir Putin)表示，他將密切關注奧維琴科(Alexander Ovechkin)和馬爾金(Evgeny Malkin)在2月15日周六對陣美國隊的表現(xiàn)，但俄羅斯隊可能還需要擊敗上屆冠軍加拿大隊才能摘得金牌。

加拿大在2010年證明，該國已經(jīng)不只在冰球或冰壺項目上具備爭奪獎牌的實力。與美國隊一樣，加拿大隊也是很全面的隊伍。馬爾泰斯(Dominique Maltais)和雷克爾(Maelle Ricker)在單板滑雪越野項目上具有絕對優(yōu)勢。陳偉群(Patrick Chan)是花樣滑冰奪金熱門，而且加拿大隊有可能在歷史上首次摘得這一項目的團體金牌。

那么德國呢?自從兩德統(tǒng)一以來，德國一直是世界上最突出的冬季運動國家。與以往一樣，德國人應該會在雪橇項目中橫掃對手，但他們在以往一直擅長的冬季兩項上實力卻大大下降。德國最優(yōu)秀的冬季兩項運動員紐內(nèi)爾(Magdalena Neuner)已經(jīng)于2012年退役進入時尚圈，退役時年僅25歲。紐內(nèi)爾在溫哥華冬奧會上摘取了三枚獎牌，其中兩枚是金牌。

不過，德國索契冬奧會代表團團長維斯佩爾(Michael Vesper)仍預計，德國將摘取至少30枚獎牌。他最近說：我們需要在新項目上取得更好的成績;在溫哥華冬奧會上，我們未能在滑雪板和自由式滑雪項目上獲得任何獎牌，這次我們認為自己能摘取一些。

如果德國繼續(xù)將力氣用在那些傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)勢項目上，結果可能會更好。對于挪威來說，這種策略似乎很奏效。