VOA慢速英語:Worries About Rising Food Prices May Ease

This is the VOA Special English Agriculture Report.

這里是美國(guó)之音慢速英語農(nóng)業(yè)報(bào)道。

A United Nations report says world food prices stayed the same in August. Prices were unchanged after rising sharply in July.

聯(lián)合國(guó)一份報(bào)告稱，8月份世界糧食價(jià)格保持不變。7月份大幅上漲后，8月份糧價(jià)基本持平。

A summer of drought in the United States and Russia has reduced expectations for corn and wheat supplies. As a result, a measure of food prices by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization rose six percent in July. But FAO economist Concepcion Calpe says the expected reductions did not get any worse in August.

美國(guó)和俄羅斯夏季的干旱使玉米和小麥的供應(yīng)預(yù)期減小。因此，聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織的食品價(jià)格指數(shù)7月份上漲了6%。但糧農(nóng)組織經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家康塞普西翁·卡爾佩(Concepcion Calpe)表示，預(yù)期的減少在8月份并沒有繼續(xù)惡化。

CONCEPCION CALPE: "We're not in a bad situation, or as bad situation as we were last month because the prospects are not worsening further. And this is already good news."

卡爾佩：“現(xiàn)在的情況還好，或者說不像上個(gè)月那么差。因?yàn)樾蝿?shì)沒有進(jìn)一步惡化，而這就是好消息。”

Ms. Calpe says the FAO price index remains about ten percent below its highest level, reached in February twenty-eleven. But prices are still twice as high as they were ten years ago.

卡爾佩表示，糧農(nóng)組織價(jià)格指數(shù)維持在比2011年最高水平低10%左右。但價(jià)格仍比十年前高一倍。

Demand remains high for food commodities like maize and wheat. The U.N. estimates that more cereal crops will be consumed this year than will be produced. That means markets will have to use some of the supplies that have been kept in reserve. Concepcion Calpe says those reserves have been low for several years.

玉米和小麥等食品類商品的需求仍然很大。據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)估計(jì)，今年消耗的谷類作物會(huì)超出生產(chǎn)的谷類作物。這意味著市場(chǎng)將不得不動(dòng)用一些儲(chǔ)備物資?？柵逭f，儲(chǔ)備多年來一直都很低。

CONCEPCION CALPE: "And therefore we are very much susceptible to very quick changes because there is very little buffer on which to rely to protect ourselves should there be another bad news on the production front."

卡爾佩：“因此我們會(huì)對(duì)(糧食價(jià)格的)快速變化變得非常敏感，因?yàn)槲覀兘枰员Ｗo(hù)自己的緩沖很少。這在糧食生產(chǎn)方面是另一個(gè)壞消息。”

She says there will be ups and downs in prices until production meets the level of demand. Still, many experts do not expect a repeat of the crisis of two thousand seven and two thousand eight. Prices jumped, playing a part in civil unrest in several countries.

她說，價(jià)格會(huì)起起伏伏，直到糧食生產(chǎn)滿足需求。盡管如此，許多專家并不認(rèn)為2007年和2008年的危機(jī)會(huì)重演。物價(jià)暴漲在一些國(guó)家的內(nèi)亂中也起到了作用。

For one thing, these experts point out that energy prices are lower now. That means producing and transporting food is not as costly. And Gary Ellerts at the United States Agency for International Development says this year's bad weather has not affected another important crop: rice. Mr. Eilerts is head of the agency's Famine Early Warning System.

這些專家指出原因之一是目前能源價(jià)格較低，這意味著生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)輸食品沒那么昂貴。美國(guó)國(guó)際開發(fā)署的加里·埃勒(Gary Ellerts)表示，今年的惡劣天氣沒有影響到另一種重要作物：水稻。埃勒先生是該機(jī)構(gòu)饑荒早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的負(fù)責(zé)人。

GARY EILERTS: "Rice is very calm, very nice. Prices are not volatile. There's a large supply. And so, countries that depend on that, that were hurt a great deal in two thousand eight, are not being touched right now."

埃勒：“水稻價(jià)格非常平穩(wěn)沒有波動(dòng)，供應(yīng)充足。因此那些在2008年受到極大損害的依賴水稻的國(guó)家當(dāng)前沒有受到影響。”

However, economist Lourdes Adriano at the Asian Development Bank says prices could increase if India stops exporting rice because of a drought.

然而，亞洲開發(fā)銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家盧爾德·阿德里亞諾(Lourdes Adriano)表示，如果印度因?yàn)楦珊低Ｖ钩隹诖竺祝瑑r(jià)格就會(huì)上漲。

LOURDES ADRIANO: "If we have a severe monsoon in India and it starts banning again the export of rice, then we will have a major problem. Because as you know, global rice trade is very thin. There are very, very few major exporters."

阿德里亞諾：“如果印度遭遇嚴(yán)重季風(fēng)并開始再次禁止出口大米，那么我們就會(huì)遇到大麻煩。因?yàn)槟阒溃虼竺踪Q(mào)易非常薄弱，大米主要出口國(guó)非常少。”

Prices jumped when India banned rice exports in two thousand eight during the food inflation crisis.

2008年食品通脹危機(jī)期間，印度禁止大米出口后價(jià)格暴漲。