外國人最想和你聊的時事話題：物價上漲
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What is price inflation 什么是物價上漲
China's creeping CPI inflation will continue to be a major concern in the market in the first half of 2011.The headline CPI is expected to remain stubbornly high at 4.5 percent year-on-year (YoY) in the first half of this year, primarily due to the carryover effect (base effect) accounting for two-thirds of the recent CPI hike, with the remaining third due to a new price driving force, ie, actual price increases-items which are gaining momentum on a monthon-month (MoM) basis.
The CPI is expected to trend downward in 2011, however, posting a 4.5 percent reading in the first half and a 3.6 percent reading in the second half. Excluding the impact of the carryover effect, the new price driving force will remain strong.
An examination and analysis of the country's CPI movements over the past four years has led to the following summarization:
Recent CPI inflation has been mainly a function of rising food prices. By setting the comparable base at 100 for December, 2006, the nation's CPI increased by 14.9 percent over the past four years (4.5 percent YoY in December, 2010 according to CCBI's forecast). This was largely driven by a 40.8 percent hike in food CPI over the same period. Non-food CPI has remained fairly stable, rising only by 3.2 percent over the past four years.
Food price inflation has been driven by both increasing demand and falling production. CCBI's analysis reveals that food price inflation has been positively correlated with average disposable income growth and industrial output growth but negatively correlated with grain production.
Given the physical constraint on land resources and planting, the country's food price inflation is expected to become a permanent fixture of the economic landscape.
PPI (producer price index) hikes have largely outstripped non-food CPI hikes in the past four years. Again, using the comparable base of 100 for December 2006, the analysis finds that the country's PPI has increased by a total of 14.3 percent (versus non-food CPI increasing by 3.2 percent) in the past four years, implying that: productivity improvements have partly digested cost inflation in many manufacturing sectors; some manufacturing sectors have little ability to pass cost inflation on to consumers; service prices have remained quite stable.
Monetary policy will target long-term price stability over short-term movements in CPI. The analysis indicates the nation's policymakers have begun to factor core CPI (non-food and deducting energy prices) movements into their inflation assessments. The policymakers will likely adopt more administrative price controls while improving agricultural productivity in an effort to curb food price inflation.
物價指數(shù)(Price Index)亦稱商品價格指數(shù)(commodity price index，簡稱CPI)是反映各個時期商品價格水準變動情況的指數(shù)。物價指數(shù)是一個與某一特定日期一定組合的商品或勞務(wù)有關(guān)的價格計量。當該商品或勞務(wù)的價格發(fā)生了變化，其價格指數(shù)也隨之變化。編制物價指數(shù)的目的，是為國家分析物價變動(price change)對國民經(jīng)濟(national economy)與人民生活的影響，從而制定有關(guān)物價宏觀調(diào)控政策(macrocontrol policy)，為加強物價管理提供依據(jù)。同時，也為企業(yè)做出相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟決策提供依據(jù)。
物價指數(shù)計算的基本方法，是以計算期(calculation period)各種商品的價格(commodity price)乘以計算期各種商品的銷售量(quantity of sale)，再除以基期(base period)各種商品的價格乘以基期各種商品的銷售量。
The rise in prices was a signal for rebellion.
物價上漲引起了叛亂。
The scarcity of food forced prices up.
食物短缺促使物價上漲。
Thousands demonstrated against the price increases.
數(shù)以千計的人舉行示威，抗議物價上漲。
They made prediction about possible price increase.
他們對物價上漲的可能性進行預(yù)測。
Price increase hit everyone's pocket.
物價上漲沖擊了每個人的錢袋。
Rising pork prices could push up China's inflation rate.
豬肉價格的上漲會推動中國通脹率的上升。
The 10% price rise is well with the limits set by the government.
10%的物價上漲遠未超過政府限定的范圍。
The 50% rise in the average nationwide price in 2006 is causing squeals of alarm.
2006年，全國平均物價上漲50%，引起了恐慌。
In emerging economies, above all, bad inflationary surprises have become the norm.
特別是在新興經(jīng)濟體，出乎意料的惡性通貨膨脹如今已成為一種常態(tài)。
The current price hikes and increasing inflationary pressures are the biggest concern of the people.
當前物價上漲和通貨膨脹的壓力是老百姓最關(guān)心的問題。
The elimination of inflation would ensure that the amount of money used in repaying a loan would have the same value as the amount of money borrowed.
消除通貨膨脹應(yīng)確保還貸的錢與所貸款的價值相等。
The central bank raised interest rates yesterday for the fourth time this year to control money supply and rising prices.
昨天，央行年內(nèi)第四次上調(diào)利率以控制貨幣供給量和物價上漲。
The close correlation of commodity price index, monetary supply, bank deposit and interest rate leads the trend of interest rates.
物價指數(shù)、貨幣供應(yīng)量、金融機構(gòu)存款的變化情況與貨幣市場利率具有較強的關(guān)聯(lián)性，并引導(dǎo)貨幣市場利率的走勢。
Like the disco era it dominated, stagflation has a distinctive beat: slow growth, rising inflation, high oil prices and weak labor markets.
就像迪斯科流行的年代一樣，經(jīng)濟"滯漲"也有突出的特點：經(jīng)濟緩慢增長，通貨膨脹加劇，油價走高以及就業(yè)市場低迷。
The 1970s stagflation resulted, in large part, from extended periods of loose monetary policy pursued to accommodate the demand-crippling effect of oil shocks by printing money.
20世紀70年代的滯漲很大程度上是為顧及因石油沖擊而受到嚴重損害的需求效應(yīng)，采取的印鈔措施和長期寬松的貨幣政策而造成的。
Rachael: Good morning, Monica.
瑞秋：早上好，莫妮卡。
Monica: Good morning.
莫妮卡：早上好。
Rachael: Did you go shopping?
瑞秋：你去商場買東西啦？
Monica: Yes. Compared with last week, the price increases again.
莫妮卡：是啊，和上個星期比，物價又上漲了。
Rachael: It is said that the central bank escalated the depositreserve ratio.
瑞秋：聽說央行又上調(diào)存款準備金率了。
Monica: Yes. That means the bank will increase the interest rate in no time.
莫妮卡：是啊，這就意味著銀行的利率要上調(diào)了。
Rachael: The central bank had increased the interest rate for four times this year.
瑞秋：今年央行已經(jīng)四次提高利率了。
Monica: But it is still possible to increase again.
莫妮卡：但是也不能排除再次調(diào)利率的可能性。
Rachael: The price increase and inflation are always big problems that persecute the government.
瑞秋：物價上漲，通貨膨脹一直以來都是困擾政府的大難題。
Monica: The authorities may fear the high inflation, driven mainly by rising food prices, may lead to more general price spikes and spill over to other sectors.
莫妮卡：政府擔心糧食價格上漲引起的通貨膨脹會導(dǎo)致更普遍的食品價格上漲，甚至延伸至其他部分。
Rachael: Well, what is the reason for the price increase?
瑞秋：那么是什么原因?qū)е铝宋飪r上漲呢？
Monica: There are three main reasons. One is the lack of energy sources and poor harvest, which lead to the price increase of oil and crops. Second, owing to the price increase of oil and crops, the salary of workers in related field underwent a raise, which cause the higher cost. Besides, it is unbalance between supply and demand.
莫妮卡：主要有三個原因：第一，是能源的短缺和糧食的歉收，導(dǎo)致了石油、糧食等產(chǎn)品的價格上升。第二，由于糧食等產(chǎn)品價格上漲，工人的工資就要相應(yīng)增加，也導(dǎo)致了相關(guān)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)成本的上升。再有，就是供求的不平衡。
Rachael: These factors are closely related with financial crisis, don't they?
瑞秋：這些因素在很大程度上與金融危機有關(guān)吧？
Monica: Yes.
莫妮卡：是的。
Rachael: I hope the government's contractionary fiscal policy can effectively stabilize the price.
瑞秋：希望政府的緊縮性貨幣政策能夠有效地穩(wěn)定物價。
Monica: The so-called price stabilization is just restricting the inflation rate with a certain limit.
莫妮卡：所謂的穩(wěn)定物價也不過是將通貨膨脹率控制在一定范圍之內(nèi)。
Rachael: It is better than not.
瑞秋：終歸比放任物價上漲強。
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