專八人文知識需知的美國名人--喬治·蓋洛普

　　喬治·蓋洛普(Gallup,GeorgeHorace，1901—1984)是美國數學家，抽樣調查方法的創(chuàng)始人、民意調查的組織者，他幾乎是民意調查活動的代名詞。蓋洛普是一個不同尋常的、正直的人。盡管他深入總統(tǒng)大選民意測驗這一工作，但他從不參與投票，而且從不為任何政治上的競爭者工作。

　　George Horace Gallup (November 18, 1901 – July 26, 1984)was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques andinventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method ofsurvey sampling for measuring public opinion.

　　他調查美國人在想什么，政治家則關注他的調查結果。

　　He asked Americans what they thought, and the politicians listened.

　　Gallup is a graduate of The Lawrenceville School and the University of Iowa, where he was a footballplayer, a member of Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity, and editor of school paper The Daily Iowan. Heearned his B.A. in 1923, his M.A. in 1925 and his Ph.D. in 1928.

　　In 1936, his new organization achieved national recognition by correctly predicting, from thereplies of only 5,000 respondents, that Franklin Roosevelt would defeat Alf Landon in the U.S.Presidential election. This was in direct contradiction to the widely respected Literary Digestmagazine whose poll based on over two million returned questionnaires predicted that Landonwould be the winner. Not only did Gallup get the election right, he correctly predicted the results ofthe Literary Digest poll as well using a random sample smaller than theirs but chosen to match it.

　　Twelve years later, his organization had its moment of greatest ignominy, when it predicted thatThomas Dewey would defeat Harry S. Truman in the 1948 election, by five to 15 percentagepoints. Gallup believed the error was mostly due to ending his polling three weeks before ElectionDay.

　　In 1948, with Claude E. Robinson, he founded Gallup and Robinson, Inc., an advertising researchcompany.

　　In 1958, Gallup grouped all of his polling operations under what became The Gallup Organization.

　　Gallup died of a heart attack at his summer home in Tschingel, a village in the Bernese Oberland ofSwitzerland. He was buried in Princeton Cemetery.

　　George Gallup founded the American Institute of Public Opinion -- which evolved into The GallupOrganization -- in 1935. Since then, Gallup-affiliated organizations in the United States andthroughout the world have assessed public opinion on a wide range of political, social, andeconomic issues, including the hopes and fears of people around the globe, their leisure-timeactivities, their morals and manners, and their religious beliefs.

　　In 1932, Dr. Gallup joined the New York advertising firm of Young & Rubicam as head of itsmarketing and copy research departments. He continued his research into print media andestablished the first nationwide radio audience measurement using the coincidental method, atechnique he originated. Later, he developed the impact method, a recall procedure now widelyused to measure television and print advertising effectiveness.

　　Throughout the 1940s, Dr. Gallup pioneered a research program for Hollywood movie studios,measuring the appeal of story ideas, the box office draw of stars, publicity penetration, andpreview reaction, which culminated in forecasts of the box office receipts for specific films. Heworked with many studio heads, including David O. Selznick, Walt Disney, and Samuel Goldwyn.He coordinated research for The Best Years of Our Lives -- one of the most-researched films inmovie history -- which won eight Oscars.

　　While at Young & Rubicam, Dr. Gallup began his work in the field of public opinion and electionforecasting. He was inspired in part by the desire to help his mother-in-law, Ola Babcock Miller, winelection and then reelection as Secretary of State for Iowa; she was the first woman to hold thatoffice and was re-elected twice.

　　Dr. Gallup founded the American Institute of Public Opinion, the precursor of The GallupOrganization, in Princeton, New Jersey, in 1935. To ensure his independence and objectivity, Dr.Gallup resolved that he would undertake no polling that was paid for or sponsored in any way byspecial interest groups such as the Republican and Democratic parties. Adhering to this principle,Gallup has turned down thousands of requests for surveys from organizations representing everyshade of the political spectrum and with every kind of special agenda.

　　Dr. Gallup's initial breakthrough occurred in 1936, when he correctly predicted that FranklinRoosevelt would defeat Alfred Landon for the U.S. presidency. This directly contradicted theLiterary Digest, the poll-of-record at the time, which predicted that Landon, the Kansas governor,would win in a landslide. With national newspaper syndication of the poll and almost daily referencesin the press, "Gallup" soon became a household word.

　　If the 1936 election performance of scientific polls gave the fledgling industry credibility with theU.S. public, their performance in the 1948 election threatened to undo everything. Lulled intothinking that few votes would change after the start of the presidential campaign, the three pollingorganizations -- Gallup, Roper, and Crossley -- stopped interviewing several weeks before theelection, predicting a win for Republican Thomas E. Dewey. By ending their efforts early, the pollsmissed the swing of third-party voters back to Harry S. Truman's camp in the final days of thecampaign.

　　Despite the severe blow the polling industry sustained that year, Gallup never doubted the validityof scientific sampling or its potential value to society. Following the 1948 election -- and after one ofPresident Truman's good-natured jibes at the polls -- Dr. Gallup said in a speech:

　　"I have the greatest admiration for President Truman, because he fights for what he believes. Ipropose to do the same thing. As long as public opinion is important in this country, and untilsomeone finds a better way of appraising it, I intend to go right ahead with the task of reportingthe opinions of the people on issues vital to their welfare."

　　The topics covered by The Gallup Poll during Dr. Gallup's lifetime closely reflected the turbulentevents of this period. He sought the public's views on reform in education, in the criminal system,and in politics, including a better way of seeking out the ablest men and women for high politicaloffice. He surveyed the public on improvements in election campaigns and on the opportunity forthe people to express their views more directly on important national issues by means of theinitiative and referendum.

　　Among Dr. Gallup's most ambitious projects was a global survey conducted in 1976 to determinethe quality of life in all areas of the world, a study that sampled populations embracing two-thirds ofthe world's population. And in the late 1970s, an international values study dealt with the social,moral, and religious attitudes of the peoples of most of the major countries in Europe, including theEastern bloc, and around the world. Today, Gallup's World Poll continues this mission.

　　Throughout his life and until his death in 1984, Dr. Gallup remained committed to learning andreporting "the will of the people." The organization that he founded -- Gallup -- now employs 2,000professionals in 40 offices around the world and has become a world leader in public opinion polling,market research, and management and leadership consulting. His legacy of integrity andindependence has made the Gallup name famous and among the most trusted brand names in theworld, synonymous with integrity and the democratic process.