For the markets, rate cuts are like a drug. They can inspire euphoria, but can also induce dependency. Markets, like addicts, need bigger and bigger doses to get the same effect. This has framed the market’s prognosis for the Federal Reserve, which today meets to decide on monetary policy. When it cut by 50 basis points in September, it sparked a huge rally. But cutting by only 25bp in October prompted a relapse, as US stocks fell and credit tightened once more. With Fed governors admitting that the liquidity squeeze had intensified and traders betting on a recession, markets decided that another 50bp cut must be forthcoming. That sparked the latest rally. But that speculation is dimming: futures are pricing a cut of 25bp not 50bp.Why? Central banks sounded hawkish last week. The Bank of England cut the bank rate but warned on inflation, and the European Central Bank, which was on hold, sounded closer to raising rates than cutting them.Most important, however, is employment data. The Fed is mandated to pursue full employment, so bad jobs numbers provide great cover for a big rate cut.. Last Friday’s non-farm payrolls did not provide it. The number employed rose by 94,000, compared with forecasts of 80,000. This data refuses to slip into recession territory. The household survey, compiled by polling households rather than companies, even shows jobs growth picking up slightly. Can the Fed rest its diagnosis on this data? Firms tracking the money companies withhold for tax purposes warn that job growth seems to have stopped. But the Fed does not want to induce a dependency culture in the markets, and it does not want to signal that it is scared of a recession. A 25bp cut in the Fed Funds rate, possibly with a steeper cut to the higher discount rate, at which it lends to banks, looks the most likely prescription.
對(duì)市場(chǎng)而言，降息猶如毒品。它們能讓人興奮，但也能導(dǎo)致依賴。就像癮君子一樣，市場(chǎng)需要越來越大的劑量，才能達(dá)到同樣的效果。這就為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)圈定了市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)有的癥狀。今天，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將開會(huì)決定貨幣政策。當(dāng)它今年9月降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)時(shí)，曾引發(fā)市場(chǎng)大幅上揚(yáng)。但是，由于10月僅降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)故態(tài)復(fù)萌：美國股市下跌，信貸再次緊縮。 由于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員承認(rèn)流動(dòng)性緊縮有所加劇，交易員猜測(cè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，因此，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將再次降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。這引發(fā)了最近的上漲。不過，這種猜測(cè)正在漸漸降溫：期貨價(jià)格顯示市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)、而非50個(gè)基點(diǎn)為什么呢?各國央行上周聽起來還很強(qiáng)硬。英國央行(Bank of England)降低了利率，但發(fā)出了通脹警告。按兵不動(dòng)的歐洲央行(European Central Bank)聽起來更像要加息，而不是降息。然而，最重要的是就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)受命實(shí)現(xiàn)完全就業(yè)，因此，糟糕的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)可以為大幅降息提供很好的借口。上周五公布的非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)無法提供這個(gè)借口。就業(yè)人數(shù)增加了9.4萬人，高于此前預(yù)測(cè)的8萬人。這樣的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)沒有滑入衰退區(qū)間。通過調(diào)查家庭而非調(diào)查企業(yè)匯編的家庭調(diào)查甚至顯示，就業(yè)增速還略有上揚(yáng)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可以依據(jù)這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)做出診斷嗎?追蹤企業(yè)稅項(xiàng)撥備的公司警告稱，這種就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)似乎已經(jīng)停止。不過，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并不想在市場(chǎng)上誘導(dǎo)“癮君子文化”，也不想表現(xiàn)出自己害怕經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?？雌饋恚缆?lián)儲(chǔ)最可能開具的藥方是：聯(lián)邦基金利率降低25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，并可能更大幅度降低其貸款給各銀行所依據(jù)的較高的貼現(xiàn)率。
