迪拜的泡沫是怎樣吹起來的

一位女士抱著孩子坐在車里，窗外是世界最高的大樓－迪拜塔

2008年10月金融危機在全球大部分地區(qū)肆虐之際，迪拜最大國有開發(fā)商的首席執(zhí)行長卻公布了其最新的超級項目：一項耗資380億美元、包括一座近三分之二英里高摩天大樓的建筑開發(fā)項目。

As financial crisis roiled much of the world in October 2008, the head of Dubai's biggest state-owned developer unveiled his latest megaproject: a billion development that would include a tower nearly two-thirds of a mile tall.

當時Nakheel的首席執(zhí)行長奧唐納(Chris O'Donnell)在新聞發(fā)布會上說，我可以肯定，你們大部分人都在問，我們?yōu)槭裁匆瞥鲞@個項目，如果你們沒有疑問的話，就有問題了。他對與會者說，盡管在修建這座大樓的年月里經(jīng)濟會起起落落，需求會繼續(xù)大于供應。

'I'm sure most of you are asking why we're launching this, and you'd be mad not to question it,' said the executive, Chris O'Donnell, at a news conference. Though there would be economic ups and downs in the years needed to build the tower, he told listeners, demand would continue to outstrip supply.

他說，市場基本面太強勁了，不會發(fā)生崩潰。

'The fundamentals in the market are too strong,' he said. 'There won't be a crash.'

之后，迪拜的住宅房地產(chǎn)價格暴跌了近50%。開發(fā)商大幅裁員，取消開發(fā)項目。這座摩天大樓的破土動工儀式很早以前就宣布擱置了。長達一年的支出削減上周達到高潮，迪拜政府出人意料地宣布將爭取重組迪拜世界(Dubai World)的260億美元債務。迪拜世界是政府很多港口、基礎設施和房地產(chǎn)公司的控股公司。

Since then, residential real-estate prices in Dubai have slumped by almost 50%. Developers have slashed jobs and scrapped projects. Groundbreaking on the tower was long ago put on hold. The yearlong retrenchment culminated in last week's surprise announcement that Dubai would seek to restructure billion of debts owed by Dubai World, the holding company for many of the government's port, infrastructure and real-estate businesses.

在這場動蕩背后是世界上最嚴重的樓市泡沫之一。在阿聯(lián)酋，約有價值4,300億美元的建筑項目被取消。阿聯(lián)酋位于沙漠地區(qū)，人口只有450萬人，面積尚不及美國的南卡羅來納州。據(jù)地區(qū)項目追蹤雜志《中東經(jīng)濟文摘》(Middle East Economic Digest)估計，其中大部分取消的項目都在酋長國迪拜。

Behind this jolt was one of the world's most concentrated property bubbles. Some 0 billion worth of construction projects have been scrapped across the United Arab Emirates, a desert country with a population of just 4.5 million and an area smaller than South Carolina. The majority were slated for the emirate of Dubai, according to estimates by the Middle East Economic Digest, a regional projects tracker.

寬松的信貸、投機者泛濫而缺乏監(jiān)管的市場、以及迪拜官員們的鼓吹，這些因素都助長了泡沫的增大，包括世襲的酋長馬克圖姆(Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum)。

The boom was fueled by easy credit, a poorly regulated market overrun by speculators, and cheerleading from Dubai officials -- including the hereditary ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

馬克圖姆對迪拜的設想──一個向世界敞開胸懷、寬容而現(xiàn)代的都市，它的很多信念和繁榮──長期以來一直令保守的阿拉伯鄰國惱怒不已，包括阿聯(lián)酋保守的首都阿布扎比的一些官員。不過對其他人來說，迪拜則是一種象征──如果一個現(xiàn)代的阿拉伯國家接納了西方及其金融體系的話，可能實現(xiàn)怎樣輝煌的成就。美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬6月份在開羅對穆斯林世界發(fā)表演講時，特別提到迪拜是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展發(fā)揮成效的地方。

His vision for the city -- a tolerant, modern metropolis open to the world, its many faiths and some of its excesses -- has long rankled conservative Arab neighbors, including some officials in Abu Dhabi, the buttoned-down capital of the U.A.E. But for others, Dubai became a symbol of what a modern Arab state might achieve if it embraced the West and its financial system. President Barack Obama, in a June speech to the Muslim world in Cairo, singled out Dubai as a place where economic development worked.

迪拜高聳的摩天大樓是該國自豪感的象征。在本周的國慶游行中，身著傳統(tǒng)阿拉伯長袍的男人們推著載有迪拜標志性建筑模型的彩車。其中有將于下個月開始運營的世界最高的大樓迪拜塔(Burj Dubai)、帆船形狀的迪拜帆船酒店(Burj Al Arab)和設有室內滑雪道的阿聯(lián)酋購物中心(Mall of the Emirates)。

Dubai's soaring skyline is a symbol of pride here. At a National Day parade this week, men dressed in traditional Arab garb pushed floats consisting of scale models of the city's iconic buildings. There were models of the Burj Dubai -- the world's tallest skyscraper, due to open next month -- as well as the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel and the Mall of the Emirates, which houses an indoor ski slope.

哈馬迪(Ahmed Al Hammadi)觀看著國慶游行說，我們的領導人能夠實現(xiàn)這一切。至于眼下的債務危機，他說，我們會以更強大的姿態(tài)走出危機。

'Our leaders have been able to achieve all of this,' said Ahmed Al Hammadi, watching the parade. As for the current debt crisis, 'we will come out of it stronger,' he said.

官員和開發(fā)商們?yōu)檫@種飛速的建設速度尋找理由，說這是因為迪拜緊鄰亞洲和歐洲、不用交稅、民風寬容，還是這一地區(qū)的商業(yè)樞紐。鑒于迪拜對追逐大型項目似乎毫無限制，外國企業(yè)高管、建筑師和房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀商紛紛涌入這里。國際債務和房地產(chǎn)投資者也聽信了這個美夢，直到全球金融市場凍結、世界大部分地區(qū)跌入了衰退。之后，買家開始尋求救助，雇主裁員，企業(yè)暫停擴張計劃。

Officials and developers justified the breakneck pace at which these were built by touting Dubai's proximity to both Asia and Europe, its tax-free and tolerant way of life and its position as the region's business hub. Foreign executives, architects and real-estate brokers flocked here for the seemingly limitless scope to pursue big projects. International debt and property investors bought into the dream, too, until global financial markets seized up and much of the world plunged into recession. Then, buyers began to bail out, employers shed staff and companies put expansion on hold.

結果是造成了驚人的房屋積壓。在貫穿迪拜摩天大樓間的超級高速公路Sheikh Zayed的沿線，數(shù)十座新近完工的建筑的外立面上都掛著“出租”的廣告牌。據(jù)國際房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀公司高力國際(Colliers International)的數(shù)據(jù)，新建筑的空置率在41%。

The result is a jaw-dropping real-estate overhang. 'To Let' signboards adorn the facades of dozens of recently finished buildings along Sheikh Zayed Road, the superhighway that cuts through the city's canyon of skyscrapers. Office vacancies in new buildings run at 41%, according to international property agency Colliers International.

上周，迪拜政府大出市場意料地宣布將把迪拜世界的債務償還延期6個月甚至更長；本周二早間又說，將開始針對迪拜世界債務的分階段重組計劃，包括與Nakheel有關的60億美元債務。迪拜政府說，重組將包括對“去杠桿化選擇”的評估，包括資產(chǎn)出售。迪拜世界說，已經(jīng)開始與銀行進行磋商，并在“有建設性的”基礎上推進。

After taking markets by surprise last week with a request to delay debt payments at Dubai World by six months or more, the government here said early Tuesday it would begin a multiphase restructuring effort aimed at the company's debt, including billion related to Nakheel's lending. It said the restucturing would include the assessment of 'deleveraging options,' including asset sales. Dubai World said it had started discussions with its banks and these were proceeding on a 'constructive basis.'

國際證券市場在恐慌過后恢復了正常，但這一事件帶來的影響并不只限于金融領域。迪拜債務事件似乎為迪拜和阿聯(lián)酋首都阿布扎比之間撕開了一道新裂痕。知情人士說，阿布扎比的聯(lián)邦官員非常憤怒，因為關于迪拜決定尋求延期償債一事，他們一直蒙在鼓里。這一裂痕可能會給美國在波斯灣的一個重要盟友帶來沖擊，因為迪拜是伊朗企業(yè)的再出口樞紐和海外金融中心，被視為美國孤立伊朗舉措的關鍵。

International securities markets recovered their poise after a scare, but the effects aren't just financial. The debt announcement appeared to open a fresh rift between Dubai and U.A.E. capital Abu Dhabi. Federal officials there were livid at being left in the dark by Dubai's decision to seek a debt standstill, say people familiar with the situation. The rift has the potential to unsettle an important U.S. ally in the Persian Gulf, because Dubai, as a re-export hub and offshore financial center for Iranian businesses, is seen as key to U.S. efforts to isolate Iran.

迪拜和阿布扎比官員近日來已經(jīng)強調了團結。不過，雖然阿聯(lián)酋聯(lián)邦政府今年早些時候為迪拜公司推出了100億美元的救助計劃，但他們目前尚未介入為迪拜世界提供援助。

Dubai and Abu Dhabi officials have underscored unity in recent days. But while the U.A.E. federal government orchestrated a billion bailout earlier this year for Dubai companies, it hasn't stepped in to offer assistance to Dubai World.

迪拜的增長開始于上世紀八十年代初，當時面臨著石油資源逐漸萎縮的局面，馬克圖姆和他父親努力推動經(jīng)濟多樣化。迪拜建造了奢華的海邊酒店，以吸引來自印度、亞洲和中東的富有游客，以及來自歐洲和俄羅斯的旅游團。2002年，馬克圖姆允許外資進入迪拜部分房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目。僅憑藉著一本宣傳冊以及一張平面圖，購房者就開始將大筆存款投入數(shù)年內都難以交付的迪拜聯(lián)排別墅、公寓以及別墅項目。

Dubai's growth began in the early 1980s when Sheikh Mohammed and his father pushed to diversify the economy in the face of dwindling oil. Dubai built luxury beachside hotels to lure wealthy visitors from India, Asia and the Middle East, plus package tours from Europe and Russia. In 2002, Sheik Mohammed opened the door to foreign ownership of property in certain developments. With little more than a brochure and a floor plan, buyers began to slap down deposits on townhouses, apartments and villas that wouldn't be ready for years.

2006年，馬克圖姆將數(shù)家政府企業(yè)合并到了迪拜世界控股公司中，由蘇拉耶(Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem)出任董事長。相應地，蘇拉耶從澳大利亞請來了奧唐納負責Nakheel，奧唐納原本在澳大利亞領導著一家增長迅速的房地產(chǎn)基金。

In 2006, Sheik Mohammed consolidated a handful of government businesses into the Dubai World holding company, with Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem as its leader. To head Nakheel, Mr. Sulayem, in turn, plucked Mr. O'Donnell from Australia, where he headed a fast-growing property fund.

蘇拉耶和奧唐納拒絕對本文置評。Nakheel一位發(fā)言人沒有回復記者通過電子郵件發(fā)送的問題，馬克圖姆的發(fā)言人同樣如此。

Messrs. Sulayem and O'Donnell declined to comment for this article. A spokesman for Nakheel didn't respond to emailed questions, nor did a spokesman for Dubai's ruler.

Nakheel當時勢頭很猛，準備推出棕櫚島開發(fā)項目的第一期項目朱美拉棕櫚島(Palm Jumeirah)，并正在規(guī)劃接下來兩個項目。2006年9月，在一個另外占地914公頃被稱為朱美拉公園(Jumeirah Park)的住宅項目，65.4萬美元起售的別墅在一天之內就售罄。來自國際銀行和當?shù)劂y行的貸款達到了購買價的97%。

Nakheel was on a roll, preparing to open the first of the palm developments, Palm Jumeirah, and planning the next two. In September 2006, at a separate, 914-acre residential community called Jumeirah Park, villas starting at 4,000 sold out in a day. International banks and local lenders offered loans for up to 97% of the purchase price.

為了幫助融資建造所有這些工程，奧唐納轉向了債券市場。2006年11月的一個投資者見面會稱迪拜是一個“有利的介入點”，能夠吸引來自從印度到埃及的廣闊中東地區(qū)的商人；其預計當時不到120萬人的迪拜人口將在14年內增加200萬人。

To help finance all this construction, Mr. O'Donnell turned to the bond markets. An investor presentation in November 2006 called Dubai a 'vantage access point' that would draw in businessmen from a wide swath of the greater Middle East, from India to Egypt. It projected that Dubai's population, then just under 1.2 million, would grow by two million in 14 years.

投資者爭先購買Nakheel發(fā)行的伊斯蘭債券。受強勁需求推動，發(fā)行方隨后將債券發(fā)行規(guī)模提高到了35億美元。

Investors rushed to buy a piece of Nakheel's Islamic bond, known as a sukuk. Swamped by demand, the borrower increased the issue's size to .5 billion.

湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2006年迪拜房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)通過債券和銀團貸款籌集了49億美元。2008年，迪拜房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的借款規(guī)模飆升到了304億美元。

That year, Dubai's real-estate sector raised .9 billion through bonds and syndicated loans, according to data provided by Thomson Reuters. Real-estate borrowing soared in 2008 to .4 billion.

2007年，迪拜世界的一家分公司購買了豪華郵輪“英國女王伊麗莎白二世號”(Queen Elizabeth 2)，計劃將這艘郵輪?？吭谥烀览貦皪u，將其改造成一家豪華酒店。那時，房地產(chǎn)市場的裂縫正在形成。當?shù)毓賳T們此前很少出臺可能限制投機活動的地產(chǎn)開發(fā)管理規(guī)定。由于擔心房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)增長過熱，他們也開始這么做了。2008年初，迪拜政府開始對一些大型房地產(chǎn)和金融機構展開了一系列高規(guī)格腐敗案調查。

In 2007, a Dubai World affiliate bought the Queen Elizabeth 2, unveiling plans to moor the ocean liner at the Palm Jumeirah and turn it into a luxury hotel. By then, cracks in the real-estate market were forming. Officials had put few regulations on development that might limit the speculation. Now, concerned that the market had grown overheated, they did so. And in early 2008, authorities embarked on a series of high-profile corruption investigations at some big real-estate and finance firms.

不過警方、法院以及這些公司本身很少透露調查信息。由于缺乏透明度，打擊腐敗不但沒有安撫投資者，反而令他們感到擔心。

But police, courts and the companies themselves disclosed little about the probes. As a result of the lack of transparency, the crackdown on corruption, instead of comforting investors, spooked them.

邁阿密律師迪亞茨(Michael Diaz)說，投資者完全不信任這一體系；他在迪拜設有辦事處。迪拜和阿聯(lián)酋官員們說，他們已經(jīng)采取措施改進司法體系。

But police, courts and the companies themselves disclosed little about the probes. As a result of the lack of transparency, the crackdown on corruption, instead of comforting investors, spooked them.

2008年4月，當?shù)鼐骄胁读说习菀患抑饕康禺a(chǎn)商的美籍黎巴嫩首席執(zhí)行長。等到媒體報導之后，該公司才披露了此事。該首席執(zhí)行長否認有不當行為。

In April 2008, police detained the Lebanese-American chief executive of one of Dubai's top developers. The company didn't disclose the arrest until after it was reported in the press. He denied wrongdoing

隨后警方又拘捕了包括Nakheel在內的迪拜一些最大公司的高管。Nakheel一位發(fā)言人沒有回復記者通過電子郵件發(fā)送的關于調查案的質詢。

A string of other detentions followed at some of Dubai's biggest companies, including Nakheel. A Nakheel spokesman didn't answer emailed questions about the probe.

就在這些拘捕事件圍繞著不確定性之際，全球其他地區(qū)爆發(fā)的危機也波及到了迪拜。全球信貸市場在2008年底凍結后，國際投資者不再購買迪拜房地產(chǎn)。一些投資者已經(jīng)停止了分期付款。Nakheel和其他公司進行了裁員，取消或推遲了數(shù)十個開發(fā)項目。

Amid the uncertainty surrounding the arrests, the crisis roiling the rest of the world was catching up with Dubai. When global credit markets froze up in late 2008, international investors stopped buying Dubai property. Some who had already bought stopped making installment payments. Nakheel and others shed staff and scrapped or delayed dozens of projects.