華爾街預(yù)計美國經(jīng)濟將于2023年出現(xiàn)衰退

The US economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And US households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings throughout the pandemic. 三月份美國增加了近50萬就業(yè)崗位，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)漲幅創(chuàng)下6%的新高，美國家庭在疫情期間的儲蓄總額累計達近2.5萬億美元（約合人民幣15.9萬億元）。

Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending recession are widespread on Wall Street.
盡管這些都是好消息，但是華爾街卻普遍認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟即將陷入衰退。

For some, it’s a matter of historical comparison.
對某些人而言，這是歷史比較的結(jié)果。

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers emphasized in a recent Washington Post op-ed that current economic conditions are undeniably reminiscent of previous pre-recession periods in US history.
美國前財政部長勞倫斯•薩默斯在近期發(fā)表在《華盛頓郵報》上的一篇專欄文章中強調(diào)，當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟狀況無疑讓人聯(lián)想起美國歷史上的幾次衰退前的情形。

"Over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has gone below 5%, the US economy has gone into a recession within two years,” Summers wrote.
薩默斯寫道：“在過去75年間，每次通脹率超過4%，失業(yè)率降到5%以下，美國經(jīng)濟就會在兩年內(nèi)陷入衰退。”

Today, the US inflation rate is nearing 8%, and the unemployment rate fell to just 3.6% in March. As a result, Summers now sees an 80% chance of a US recession by next year.
如今，美國通脹率接近8%，失業(yè)率在三月份降至3.6%。因此，薩默斯認(rèn)為美國有80%的幾率將在明年陷入經(jīng)濟衰退。