為什么中國(guó)的冠狀病毒死亡率在下降

為什么中國(guó)的冠狀病毒死亡率在下降

When it comes to the spiraling global coronavirus outbreak, scientists are still trying to pin down the answer to a basic question: How deadly is this virus?

當(dāng)全球冠狀病毒爆發(fā)時(shí)，科學(xué)家們?nèi)栽谠噲D找到一個(gè)基本問(wèn)題的答案:這種病毒有多致命?

Estimates have varied widely. For instance, at a Feb. 24 news conference in Beijing, a top Chinese health official, Liang Wannian, said the fatality rate for COVID-19 was quite high:

估計(jì)差異很大。例如，在2月24日于北京舉行的一次新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，中國(guó)衛(wèi)生部高級(jí)官員梁萬(wàn)年說(shuō)，19號(hào)致命病例的致死率相當(dāng)高:

"Between 3 to 4% of patients have died," said Liang.

“3%到4%的病人已經(jīng)死亡，”梁說(shuō)。

Then he added: Outside of Wuhan — the city at the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate in China has been much lower: about 0.7 percent. That's fewer than 1 fatality per 100 cases.

然后他又補(bǔ)充說(shuō):在疫情中心城市武漢之外，中國(guó)的死亡率要低得多，大約是0.7%。每100個(gè)病例中只有不到1人死亡。

Death Rate For COVID-19 Cases In China

中國(guó)COVID-19例的死亡率

Similarly, a study released by China's Center for Disease Control last month, found that if you factor out all the data from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, the fatality rate in the rest of China drops to 0.4 percent.

同樣，中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心上個(gè)月發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果把武漢所在的湖北省的所有數(shù)據(jù)都提取出來(lái)，中國(guó)其他地區(qū)的死亡率下降到到0.4%。

Why such a big difference between Hubei and the rest of China?

為什么湖北和中國(guó)其他地方有這么大的不同呢?

At a news conference the next day, Dr. Bruce Aylward — who'd just concluded a fact-finding mission to China for the World Health Organization — pointed to three likely factors.

在第二天的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，布魯斯·艾爾沃德博士，他剛剛結(jié)束了世界衛(wèi)生組織在中國(guó)的調(diào)查任務(wù)，指出了三個(gè)可能的因素。

First, said Aylward, is that Wuhan suffered from being the first place where the new coronavirus surfaced. "Wuhan started fast and, and early. People didn't know what we were dealing with. We were learning how to treat this."

首先，艾爾沃德說(shuō)，武漢是第一個(gè)新冠狀病毒出現(xiàn)的地方。“武漢開(kāi)始得又快又早。人們不知道我們?cè)谔幚硎裁?。我們正在學(xué)習(xí)如何應(yīng)對(duì)這種情況。”

The more patients medical staff saw, the more they could start identifying what kind of supportive care made a difference. So by the time patients started showing up in hospitals in other provinces, doctors and nurses there had a lot more information about what it takes to keep patients alive.

醫(yī)護(hù)人員看到的病人越多，他們就越能認(rèn)識(shí)到什么樣的維持療法能起到作用。因此，當(dāng)病人開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)在其他省份的醫(yī)院時(shí)，那里的醫(yī)生和護(hù)士掌握了更多關(guān)于如何讓病人活下去的信息。

Hospitals in the rest of world will likely also benefit from that knowledge.

世界其他地方的醫(yī)院可能也會(huì)從這些知識(shí)中受益。

Hospitals in Wuhan were flooded with thousands of sick people. That stressed their capacity to provide the kind of round-the-clock intensive care needed for a patient with a critical case of COVID-19.

武漢的醫(yī)院里擠滿了成千上萬(wàn)的病人。這就強(qiáng)調(diào)了他們提供24小時(shí)重癥監(jiān)護(hù)的能力，而這種監(jiān)護(hù)正是患COVID-19病癥所需要的。

Elsewhere in China the caseload was much lower.

在中國(guó)其他地方，病例數(shù)量要低得多。

The implication for other countries: It's worth trying to at least slow the pace of an outbreak with measures to keep the number of patients from overwhelming local hospitals.

這對(duì)其他國(guó)家的啟示是:至少有必要嘗試減緩疫情爆發(fā)的速度，采取措施防止患者數(shù)量超過(guò)當(dāng)?shù)蒯t(yī)院負(fù)荷。

The final factor, says Aylward, "At the beginning of this outbreak remember, people were finding severe disease. And that's why the alarm bells went off."

艾爾沃德說(shuō)，最后一個(gè)因素是:“記住，在疫情爆發(fā)之初，人們發(fā)現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的疾病。這就是為什么警鐘響了。”

Those early severe cases made COVID-19 look like a much bigger killer. It was only after officials in China stepped up surveillance that they started uncovering many more mild cases (people with symptoms such as fever and dry cough).

這些早期的嚴(yán)重病例使COVID-19看起來(lái)像是一個(gè)更大的殺手。只是在中國(guó)官員加強(qiáng)監(jiān)測(cè)之后，他們才開(kāi)始發(fā)現(xiàn)更多輕微的病例(有發(fā)燒和干咳等癥狀的人)。

All of this may also help explain why over time the death rate for COVID-19 has steadily dropped.

所有這些也有助于解釋為什么隨著時(shí)間的推移，COVID-19的死亡率穩(wěn)步下降。

According to the China CDC study, among patients whose symptoms started between Jan. 1 and Jan. 10 the death rate was 15.6 percent. But it was just 0.8 percent among those who didn't get sick until Feb. 1 to Feb. 11.

根據(jù)中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心的研究，在1月1日至1月10日出現(xiàn)癥狀的患者中，死亡率為15.6%。但在2月1日至2月11日才發(fā)病的人群中，這一比例僅為0.8%。

That pattern of progressively dropping death rates is one we're likely to see in other countries.

我們很可能在其他國(guó)家看到這種死亡率逐步下降的模式。

In other words, there's a good chance the fatality rate in nations with good health systems will end up being a lot lower than what was first seen in China.

換句話說(shuō)，在擁有良好衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)的國(guó)家，死亡率很可能會(huì)比中國(guó)首次出現(xiàn)的情況低很多。