能源市場2050年的8大預(yù)測

Total energy consumption rises by almost 50 per cent over the next 30 years. This is driven by economic growth (of 3 per cent a year globally) and an expected 2bn rise in population over the period. Most of the growth in demand comes in countries, led by China and India, outside the OECD club of mostly rich nations.

未來30年期間，能源消費(fèi)總量將增長近50%。其驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(基于全球每年增長3%)和同期預(yù)計(jì)人口增長20億。大部分需求增長來源于以中國和印度為首的國家，而非以富國為主的經(jīng)合組織(OECD)國家。

2

Renewable energy supplies grow rapidly. Taken together, they will make up the largest share of total global energy supply by 2050, outstripping the other sources individually.

可再生能源供應(yīng)迅速增長。到2050年，可再生能源將占全球能源供應(yīng)總量的最大份額，超過其他單項(xiàng)能源。

3

Demand for hydrocarbons also continues to grow, however. In 30 years’ time almost 70 per cent of total energy supplies will still be accounted for by oil, natural gas and coal collectively, against almost 30 per cent from renewables.

然而，對碳?xì)浠衔锏男枨笠苍诶^續(xù)增長。30年后，近70%的能源供應(yīng)總量仍將來自石油、天然氣和煤炭，而可再生能源占近30%。

4

Oil demand rises to more than 105m barrels a day. Refined petroleum and other liquid fuels will continue to supply more than 80 per cent of the energy needed for transportation throughout the period. Although the number of electric vehicles rises from some 6m today to more than 430m by 2050, total light vehicles increase from around 1.1bn today to 2.4bn, with most running on petrol. With the growth in freight transportation and air flights, that will outweigh the impact of both electrification and gains in vehicle efficiency.

石油需求上升至每天逾1.05億桶。在此期間，精煉石油和其他液體燃料將繼續(xù)提供運(yùn)輸所需能源的80%以上。雖然電動(dòng)汽車的保有量將從目前的約600萬輛增至2050年的逾4.3億輛，但輕型汽車的總保有量將從當(dāng)前的約11億輛增至24億輛，其中大部分以汽油驅(qū)動(dòng)。加上貨運(yùn)和民航航班增長，那將超出電氣化和提高車輛效率帶來的影響。

5

Oil prices grow to $100 a barrel in real 2018 money by 2050. But even at $185, oil would still see strong demand growth.

到2050年，油價(jià)將上漲至每桶100美元(按2018年實(shí)際價(jià)格計(jì)算)。但即便賣到每桶185美元，石油仍將面臨強(qiáng)勁需求增長。

6

Most of the demand growth comes from industry. It is seen especially in the energy-intensive manufacturing of such products as chemicals, food and iron and steel. Again, this is led by activity in China and India.

大部分需求增長來自工業(yè)，尤其是化工、食品、鋼鐵等能源密集型產(chǎn)品的制造過程。中國和印度仍是這方面活動(dòng)的領(lǐng)頭羊。

7

Coal remains the largest single source of energy for industry globally. Even in 2050 it accounts for a quarter of all energy consumption. India’s use of coal is set to soar from 1.1bn short tons (equivalent to 2,000lb) a year to 2.9bn.

煤炭仍然是全球工業(yè)消耗的最大單一能源。即便到2050年，它也將占能源消耗總量的四分之一。印度的煤炭使用量將從每年11億短噸(相當(dāng)于2000磅)飆升至29億短噸。

8

Coal-related carbon dioxide emissions grow by around 0.4 per cent a year. This is better than from 1990 to 2018 when they grew by 2.1 per cent a year, but still sufficient to bring the world to the point at which global warming of some 2C is unavoidable, according to the scientific evidence.

與煤炭相關(guān)的二氧化碳排放量每年增長約0.4%。這比1990年至2018年期間每年增長2.1%要好，但科學(xué)證據(jù)顯示，這仍足以把世界帶到全球升溫幅度難免達(dá)到2攝氏度的境地。