《洶涌的海洋:地圖選擇》

Record-breaking floods, stronger storms, unpredictable rainfall — none of it should come as a particular surprise considering Myanmar’s standing as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to climate change and extreme weather events.

破紀(jì)錄的洪水、強風(fēng)暴、不可預(yù)測的降雨——在緬甸這一切都不值得驚訝，畢竟它在氣候變化和極端天氣方面是世界上最脆弱的國家之一。

But actually seeing the predicted impact of sea-level rises in Yangon mapped out — comparing a future with a world hotter by 2 degrees Celsius, then by 4 degrees — is pretty eye-opening.

但事實上，看到仰光海平面上升的預(yù)測影響——將未來全球變暖2攝氏度、與全球變暖4攝氏度進(jìn)的對比圖——相當(dāng)令人大開眼界。

Take a quick look at the simulations created by Surging Seas: Mapping Choices and shared by historian Thant-Myint U on his Facebook page earlier today, and we’ll explain what you’re seeing below.

今天早些時候，歷史學(xué)家Thant-Myint U在他的Facebook上分享了《洶涌的海洋:地圖選擇》(Mapping Choices)的模擬場景，圖解如下。

 

In the first comparison, the one positing a 2-degree global uptick, a large part of the Irrawaddy delta is completely submerged, with patches of water covering a large part of the area across the river in Dala, Seikkyi Kanaungto, Hlaingtharya, and Kyimyindaing, surrounding Yangon proper.

在第一個對比圖中，假設(shè)全球氣溫上升2度，伊洛瓦底江三角洲的大部分地區(qū)完全被淹沒，在河對岸的大拉拉、凱南東、林塔里亞和基明丹的大片區(qū)域被水覆蓋，而仰光就在附近。

In the second comparison — the 4-degree version — Yangon is almost completely submerged in water, with just a strip of town running from the downtown jetty to Hlaing township remaining above sea level.

在第二次比較中——上升4度的版本——仰光幾乎完全淹沒在水中，只有一條從市中心防波堤到Hlaing鎮(zhèn)的狹長地帶漏出海平面。

The projections may seem extreme, but the numbers correspond with those from various international organizations specializing in climate change and meteorology.

這些預(yù)測看起來有些不切實際，但這些數(shù)字與專門研究氣候變化和氣象學(xué)的各個國際組織的預(yù)測是一致的。

In a 2017 World Wildlife Fund summary report, published in conjunction with the UN and several Myanmar government ministries, experts predict sea levels will rise by anywhere from 40 to 80 centimeters by the 2080s, with a figure over 100 centimeters a possibility.

在2017年世界野生動物基金會(World Wildlife Fund)與聯(lián)合國(UN)和緬甸幾個政府部門聯(lián)合發(fā)布的一份總結(jié)報告中，專家預(yù)測，到2080年，海平面將上升40至80厘米，有可能超過100厘米。

“Sea levels are projected to rise by between 5cm and 13cm in the 2020s along the entire coast of Myanmar, increasing to 20cm to 41cm in the 2050s, and 37cm to 83cm in the 2080s, with the potential for as much as a 122cm increase,” the report states.

報告指出：“緬甸整個海岸的海平面預(yù)計在本世紀(jì)20年代將上升5至13厘米，到本世紀(jì)50年代將上升至20厘米至41厘米，到本世紀(jì)80年代將上升至37厘米至83厘米，有可能上升多達(dá)122厘米。”

Just a 50 centimeter increase in sea levels could cause the coastline to retreat by almost 10km low-lying areas of the country like the Irrawaddy Delta.

在像伊洛瓦底江三角洲這樣的低洼地區(qū)，海平面只要上升50厘米，海岸線就會退縮近10公里。

According to the Myanmar Climate Change Alliance, Myanmar’s geographic location, as well as its dependence on its natural resources and ecosystems for its economy and overall well-being make it especially vulnerable to changes in the climate, as well as extreme climate events.

據(jù)緬甸氣候變化聯(lián)盟稱，緬甸的地理位置，經(jīng)濟(jì)和國民幸福對自然資源和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的高度依賴，使其特別容易受到氣候變化以及極端氣候的影響。

In 2008, Cyclone Nargis claimed almost 140,000 lives by the most conservative estimates, and displaced 800,000 more, causing irreparable damage to many in the delta region who were not warned of the incoming storm surge, torrential rain and gust winds. Since then, more floods and cyclones have battered Myanmar, displacing thousands and killing hundreds every year.

保守估計，2008年，在沒有收到風(fēng)暴、暴雨和狂風(fēng)的預(yù)警的情況下，納爾吉斯颶風(fēng)奪走了近14萬人的生命，并使80多萬人流離失所，給三角洲地區(qū)的許多人造成了無法彌補的損失。自那以后，更多的洪水和颶風(fēng)襲擊了緬甸，每年造成數(shù)千人流離失所，數(shù)百人死亡。