中國(guó)央行開(kāi)年降準(zhǔn)，釋放1.5萬(wàn)億人民幣

HONG KONG — With the Chinese economy beginning the new year on a decidedly downbeat note, Beijing’s leaders are injecting more than $200 billion into its financial system to ease lending.

香港——隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)以明顯悲觀的基調(diào)開(kāi)始新的一年，北京領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人向金融系統(tǒng)注入2000多億美元來(lái)放寬信貸。

The People’s Bank of China on Friday said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves by one percentage point. The move will essentially free up 1.5 trillion Chinese renminbi, or about $218 billion, for an economy experiencing weaker factory output and consumer confidence while it weathers a trade war with the United States.

中國(guó)人民銀行上周五表示，將把銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率下調(diào)1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。此舉將向中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)釋放1.5萬(wàn)億元人民幣(約合2180億美元)，在經(jīng)歷與美國(guó)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)之際，中國(guó)的工業(yè)產(chǎn)出和消費(fèi)者信心正在減弱。

The cut is not unusual for China’s central bank, but it comes amid uncertainty about how Beijing will manage slower growth. China’s slowdown has contributed to shaky global financial markets. On Wednesday, underscoring the broad impact, Apple unexpectedly cut its sales forecast for its latest quarter, citing disappointing iPhone sales in China, once one of its most vibrant markets.

此次降準(zhǔn)對(duì)中國(guó)央行來(lái)說(shuō)并非不同尋常，但目前北京如何應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩仍存在不確定性。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩已導(dǎo)致全球金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩。周三，蘋(píng)果公司出人意料地下調(diào)了最新一個(gè)季度的銷售預(yù)期，原因是iPhone在中國(guó)的銷售令人失望，這凸顯出中國(guó)的廣泛影響。中國(guó)曾是蘋(píng)果最活躍的市場(chǎng)之一。

Chinese officials pledged last month to step up support of the economy, and they are facing new urgency, said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics, a research firm. Retail and auto sales are down, and China’s latest manufacturing data showed factory activity shrank in December. While monthly data released on Friday showed improvement in China’s services sector, the overall picture has become more concerning.

研究公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的首席亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，中國(guó)官員上月承諾將加大對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持力度，他們正面臨新的緊迫形勢(shì)。零售和汽車銷售下降，中國(guó)最新制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，12月份工廠活動(dòng)出現(xiàn)萎縮。盡管上周五發(fā)布的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)的服務(wù)業(yè)有所改善，但整體形勢(shì)變得更加令人擔(dān)憂。

“The consistently downbeat tone of the data released since then will only have underlined the strains the economy is facing,” Mr. Williams said.

“從那以后發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)持續(xù)低迷，只會(huì)突顯出經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的壓力，”威廉姆斯說(shuō)。

This month, China will report economic growth figures for the last three months of 2018. While China’s headline growth figure is widely seen as unreliable, it dipped in the third quarter to 6.5 percent, its lowest level of expansion since the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

本月，中國(guó)將公布2018年最后三個(gè)月的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)。盡管中國(guó)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)被普遍認(rèn)為不可靠，但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在第三季度的增長(zhǎng)率降至6.5%，為全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái)的最低水平。

The move by the central bank on Friday appeared to be part of a coordinated effort. Earlier in the day, Li Keqiang, the country’s premier, said China would move to shore up the economy through measures that included cutting bank reserve requirement ratios and lowering taxes.

中國(guó)央行上周五的舉措似乎是一項(xiàng)協(xié)調(diào)努力的一部分。當(dāng)天早些時(shí)候，中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)表示，中國(guó)將采取措施提振經(jīng)濟(jì)，包括下調(diào)銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率和減稅。

The central bank said it would cut its reserve requirement ratio — a measure of how much cash from deposits that lenders need to keep — by half a percentage point on Jan. 15 and another half a percentage point by Jan. 25.

中國(guó)央行表示，將于1月15日將存款準(zhǔn)備金率下調(diào)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并在1月25日前再下調(diào)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。存款準(zhǔn)備金率是貸方需要從存款中保留多少現(xiàn)金的衡量指標(biāo)。

The move will give banks more leeway to lend money, though analysts noted the net amount of money flowing into the system would be roughly half the $218 billion headline figure, as the central bank shuts off other sources of funds. It also comes roughly a month before China’s Lunar New Year holiday, when Chinese households sometimes strain the monetary system by spending more and by giving cash as gifts.

此舉將給銀行提供更多的放貸空間，不過(guò)分析人士指出，隨著央行關(guān)閉其他資金來(lái)源，流入金融體系的資金凈額將約為2180億美元的一半。而且一個(gè)月左右之后，將是中國(guó)的春節(jié)假期，屆時(shí)中國(guó)家庭會(huì)增加支出和贈(zèng)送現(xiàn)金作為禮物，有時(shí)會(huì)給貨幣體系造成壓力。

China has traditionally used its state-controlled banking system to flood the economy with money when growth slows. Last year, China cut the reserve ratio four times. But economists, small businesses and many others say the mechanism shovels money into big, inefficient companies or into investment bubbles instead of toward the smaller entrepreneurs who need it more.

中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)上會(huì)利用其國(guó)有銀行體系，在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩時(shí)向經(jīng)濟(jì)注入大量資金。去年，中國(guó)四次下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率。但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、小企業(yè)和其他許多人說(shuō)，這一機(jī)制將資金注入效率低下的大公司或投資泡沫，而不是流向更需要資金的小企業(yè)。

The cut “will be good for curbing the economic downturn and solving the financing difficulties of enterprises,” said Yu Yongding, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

此次降準(zhǔn)“對(duì)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑，解決企業(yè)融資困難有好處”，中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家余永定表示。

“But this is just one policy,” Mr. Yu added, saying it risks pouring money into real estate and the stock market, which would do little to solve the economy’s problems. “We need a lot of other policies to cooperate.”

“但是這僅僅是一個(gè)政策，”余永定說(shuō)。他表示，這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致資金大量涌入房地產(chǎn)和股市，而這對(duì)解決經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題幾乎毫無(wú)幫助。“我們需要很多其他政策加以配合。”

For several weeks, economists and analysts have speculated that officials could move to push a hefty stimulus package that would give the flagging economy a shot in the arm. But such bold moves have become increasingly difficult for the Chinese government, which is contending with a huge debt load accumulated over the last decade to spur growth.

數(shù)周來(lái)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析人士一直在猜測(cè)，官員們可能會(huì)采取行動(dòng)，推出一項(xiàng)龐大的刺激計(jì)劃，給低迷的經(jīng)濟(jì)打一劑強(qiáng)心針。但對(duì)中國(guó)政府來(lái)說(shuō)，這些大膽舉措已變得越來(lái)越困難，目前它正與過(guò)去10年為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而累積的巨額債務(wù)作斗爭(zhēng)。

Still, many analysts took the move as a sign that China’s leader would be proactive in heading off any worsening slump.

盡管如此，許多分析人士仍將此舉視為一個(gè)信號(hào)，表明中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將積極采取行動(dòng)，防止經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步惡化。

“The central bank has made it clear that this wasn’t ‘releasing the floodwaters’ by providing a huge stimulus comparable to that introduced in 2009, but it is clear that they are redoubling efforts to stabilize the economy and the currency,” Geoffrey Yu, the head of the British investment office of the Swiss bank UBS, said in an email.

“央行已經(jīng)明確表示，這不是通過(guò)提供2009年金融危機(jī)時(shí)候的那種大刺激來(lái)‘泄洪’，但很明顯，他們加倍努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣，”瑞士銀行瑞銀(UBS)的英國(guó)投資辦公室主管余修遠(yuǎn)(Geoffrey Yu)在電子郵件中說(shuō)。

“This swift action supports our view that there won’t be a sharp deceleration in the Chinese economy this year and that fears of a major global slowdown are overdone,” Mr. Yu added.

“這一迅速的行動(dòng)支持了我們的觀點(diǎn)，即中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年不會(huì)大幅減速，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅放緩的擔(dān)憂有些過(guò)頭了，”余修遠(yuǎn)補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。