美股大跌給美國經(jīng)濟敲響警鐘

Unemployment is near lows not seen in half a century. The American economy is set for its best year since 2005. Large corporations are producing giant profits. Even wages are starting to rise. 失業(yè)率接近半個世紀以來的最低點。美國經(jīng)濟將迎來自2005年以來最好的一年。大公司正在創(chuàng)造巨額利潤。甚至工資也開始上漲。

And the stock markets are a mess. 然而股票市場一團糟。

The losses extended on Tuesday, as the S&P 500-stock index turned negative for the year, stoking fears that one of the longest bull markets in history could be at risk. 隨著今年的標準普爾500指數(shù)轉(zhuǎn)為負值，周二損失擴大，令人們擔心史上最長的牛市之一可能面臨風險。

The stock market struggles may seem incongruous with an American economy that by many measures looks strong. But stocks often act as an early warning system, picking up subtle changes before they appear in the economic data. 美國經(jīng)濟在很多方面看起來都很強勁，股票市場的動蕩似乎與其不協(xié)調(diào)。但股票通常充當早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，在微妙的變化出現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)里之前就覺察到了它們。

In recent weeks, retail stocks have been hit over concerns of rising costs, a sign that the trade war may be starting to take a toll and that higher wages are cutting into profits. Commodities and the companies that depend on them have been pummeled by the prospect of weaker demand should the global economy slow. Five tech giants — Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Netflix — have shed more than $800 billion in market value since the end of August, the fallout from slowing growth and regulatory scrutiny. 最近幾周，由于對成本上漲的擔憂，零售股受到打擊，這表明貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能開始造成損失，而且工資上漲也正在侵蝕利潤。大宗商品和依賴它們的公司受到全球經(jīng)濟放緩導(dǎo)致需求疲軟前景的打擊。自8月底以來，五大科技巨頭——Facebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Alphabet、蘋果(Apple)和Netflix——市值已縮水超過8000億美元，這是增長放緩和監(jiān)管審查的結(jié)果。

The S&P 500 closed on Tuesday at 2,642, down 1.8 percent. Other markets also flashed warnings, with oil dropping by 6.8 percent, falling deeper into bear territory. 標準普爾500指數(shù)周二收盤時為2642點，下跌1.8%。其他市場也發(fā)出警告，油價下跌6.8%，跌至熊市區(qū)域。

The sell-off doesn’t mean the United States is headed into a recession. The stock market suffered several sharp stumbles in recent years before climbing to new highs on the back of booming corporate profits and strong economic growth. 拋售并不意味著美國將陷入衰退。股市在近幾年遭遇了幾次大幅下挫，由于企業(yè)利潤增長和經(jīng)濟增長強勁，令它再創(chuàng)新高。

But the recent market drop is consistent with a potential downshift in the American economy. In 2018, a hefty dose of fiscal stimulus allowed the United States to shake off the growth worries in China, Europe and the rest of the world. It won’t have the same potency next year, leaving the American economy vulnerable to a global slowdown. 但最近的市場下跌與美國經(jīng)濟可能出現(xiàn)的下滑趨勢一致。在2018年，大量的財政刺激措施使美國擺脫了中國、歐洲和世界其他地區(qū)出現(xiàn)的對增長的擔憂。這些措施明年將不再有相同的效果，使得美國經(jīng)濟容易受到全球經(jīng)濟放緩的影響。

“I think there’s very clear signs that investors are beginning to worry about weaker growth in the coming year or so, and how that’s going to feed through to corporate earnings,” said Michael Pearce, senior United States economist with Capital Economics. “我認為有非常明顯的跡象表明，投資者開始擔心未來一年左右的增長疲軟，以及這將如何影響企業(yè)盈利，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)資深美國經(jīng)濟學家邁克爾·皮爾斯(Michael Pearce)表示。

Until recently, investors were willing to ignore the geopolitical dramas, economic risks and other issues clouding the outlook for American companies. Now, they are jittery, pressing sell at even small signs of trouble. 直到前不久，投資者還對地緣政治事件、經(jīng)濟風險和其他給美國公司的前景蒙上陰影的問題視而不見?，F(xiàn)在，他們變得緊張不安，甚至在麻煩出現(xiàn)小征兆時就急著出售。

Strong growth and deep corporate tax cuts have supercharged corporate profits this year. Once all the results are tallied up, the third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to be up more than 28 percent from a year earlier — outpacing previous quarters. 強勁的增長和大幅企業(yè)減稅措施使今年的企業(yè)利潤增加。一旦所有結(jié)果統(tǒng)計出來，標準普爾500指數(shù)成份股公司第三季度的收益預(yù)計將比去年同期增長28%以上——超過前幾個季度。

But those numbers haven’t satisfied investors, who have grown simultaneously concerned about risks they face if the economy stays strong — such as rising interest rates and increased expenses for wages — as well as the threat to stocks from a significant global slowdown. 但這些數(shù)字并未令投資者滿意，他們同時還關(guān)注經(jīng)濟保持強勢所面臨的風險——例如利率上升和工資支出增加——以及全球經(jīng)濟放緩對股市的威脅。

On Tuesday, shares of the retailer Target dropped by more than 10 percent, on worries that rising costs — from increased wages to higher prices for the Chinese goods facing tariffs — could continue to crimp profits. Investors also dumped shares of Kohl’s and TJX, the owner of T.J. Maxx, which both saw freight costs eat into earnings. 周二，零售商塔吉特(Target)的股價下跌超過10%，原因是擔心成本上升——從工資上漲到面臨關(guān)稅的中國商品價格上漲——可能繼續(xù)壓低利潤。投資者還拋售了柯爾(Kohl’s)和T.J. Maxx公司的所有者TJX的股票，兩家公司都面臨運費成本侵蝕利潤。

Apple continued its slide on worries about softening demand. The tech giant tumbled nearly 5 percent, after Goldman Sachs equity analysts cut their price target citing deteriorating demand, especially in China. 由于擔心需求疲軟，蘋果股價繼續(xù)下滑。在高盛(Goldman Sachs)股票分析師因需求惡化(尤其是在中國)下調(diào)其價格目標后，這家科技股大跌近5%。

China, the world’s largest consumer of oil, has also been weighing on commodities. Oil prices, now just above $53 a barrel, have fallen more than 20 percent since early October. On Tuesday, the energy sector of the S&P 500 was the worst performing part of the stock market. 中國是世界上最大的石油消費國，也一直對大宗商品有很大影響。自10月初以來，油價目前略高于每桶53美元，跌幅超過20%。周二，標準普爾500指數(shù)的能源板塊是股市表現(xiàn)最差的板塊。

Weakness in China is feeding broader global concerns. Last quarter, the country’s growth slowed to its lowest level since 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis. 中國的疲弱正在引發(fā)更廣泛的全球關(guān)注。上一季度，在全球金融危機低谷之時，該國的增長放緩至2009年以來的最低水平。

Japan is also looking shaky, with the economy contracting in the third quarter. And Germany, the powerhouse behind Europe, shrank unexpectedly during the third quarter as well. 由于第三季度經(jīng)濟萎縮，日本也看起來不穩(wěn)定。而歐洲的經(jīng)濟強國德國也在第三季度意外萎縮。

The global slowdown could eventually spill over into the United States, particularly as the impact of this year’s tax cuts fades in 2019. For investors, that could mean a choppy new phase in the markets after years of solid gains. 全球經(jīng)濟放緩可能最終波及美國，特別是今年減稅措施的影響在2019年消退時。對于投資者來說，這可能意味著經(jīng)過多年的穩(wěn)定增長后，市場將進入一個動蕩的新階段。

“I think this is what a low-return environment starts to feel like,” said Joe Davis, chief economist with Vanguard. “The past five years, although entirely welcome from an investment standpoint, is clearly unsustainable.” “我認為這就是低回報環(huán)境開始的感覺，”先鋒集團(Vanguard)首席經(jīng)濟學家喬·戴維斯(Joe Davis)說。“過去五年雖然從投資的角度來看非常令人愉快，但顯然是不可能一直持續(xù)下去的。”