美國(guó)農(nóng)民的大豆腐爛前，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)能結(jié)束嗎？

ARTHUR, N.D. — This is harvest season in the rich farmlands of the eastern Dakotas, the time of year Kevin Karel checks his computer first thing in the morning to see how many of his soybeans Chinese companies have purchased while he was sleeping.

北達(dá)科他州亞瑟——這是達(dá)科他州東部豐饒農(nóng)田的收獲季節(jié)，一年中的這個(gè)時(shí)候凱文·卡雷爾(Kevin Karel)總是會(huì)在早上查看他的電腦，看看中國(guó)公司在他睡覺時(shí)購(gòu)買了多少大豆。

Farmers here in Cass County have prospered over the last two decades by growing more soybeans than any other county in the United States, and by shipping most of those beans across the Pacific Ocean to feed Chinese pigs and chickens.

過去20年來，卡斯縣是全美大豆種植量最高的縣，絕大多數(shù)大豆作為豬和雞飼料被銷往中國(guó)，該縣由此繁榮了起來。

But this year, the Chinese have all but stopped buying. The largest market for one of the United States’ largest exports has shut its doors. The Chinese government imposed a tariff on American soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods. The latest federal data, through mid-October, shows American soybean sales to China have declined by 94 percent from last year’s harvest.

但今年，中國(guó)人幾乎停止了購(gòu)買。美國(guó)最大出口產(chǎn)品之一的最大市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)關(guān)閉。中國(guó)政府對(duì)美國(guó)大豆征收關(guān)稅，以回應(yīng)特朗普政府對(duì)中國(guó)商品的關(guān)稅。最新的聯(lián)邦數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至10月中旬，美國(guó)出口中國(guó)的大豆銷量比去年的收獲時(shí)節(jié)減少了94%。

Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which operates six grain elevators in eastern North Dakota, has started to pile 1 million bushels of soybeans on a clear patch of ground behind some of his grain silos. The big mound of yellowish-white beans, already one of the taller hills in this flat part of the world, will then be covered with tarps.

卡雷爾是亞瑟公司(Arthur Companies)的總經(jīng)理，公司在北達(dá)科他州東部經(jīng)營(yíng)著六座谷倉(cāng)塔，他已開始在一些谷倉(cāng)后面的空地上堆積100萬蒲式耳的大豆。在這片地勢(shì)平坦的地區(qū)，這些黃白色的大豆堆的高度已經(jīng)超過了許多山丘，然后在上面會(huì)蓋上防水布。

The hope is that prices will rise before the beans rot.

他們指望的是在大豆腐爛前價(jià)格能漲回去。

“We’re sitting on the edge of our seat,” Karel said.

“我們現(xiàn)在非常緊張，”卡雷爾說。

President Donald Trump sees tariffs as a tool to force changes in the United States’ economic relationships with China and other major trading partners. His tough approach, he says, will revive American industries like steel and auto manufacturing that have lost ground to foreign rivals. But that is coming at a steep cost for some industries, like farming, that have thrived in the era of globalization by exporting goods to foreign markets.

唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)總統(tǒng)認(rèn)為關(guān)稅是推動(dòng)美國(guó)與中國(guó)和其他主要貿(mào)易伙伴轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的工具。他說，他的強(qiáng)硬手段將使鋼鐵和汽車制造等美國(guó)工業(yè)復(fù)蘇，這些工業(yè)相比外國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手已經(jīng)處于下風(fēng)。但是，對(duì)于像農(nóng)業(yè)這樣在全球化時(shí)代通過向國(guó)外市場(chǎng)出口商品而蓬勃發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè)來說，這需要付出巨大的代價(jià)。

China and other trading partners hit with the tariffs, including the European Union, have sought to maximize the political impact of their reprisals. The European Union imposed tariffs on bourbon, produced in Kentucky, the home state of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, from Wisconsin, the home state of House Speaker Paul Ryan. China’s decision to impose tariffs on soybeans squeezes some of Trump’s staunchest supporters across the Midwestern farm belt.

被關(guān)稅打擊的中國(guó)和包括歐洲的其他貿(mào)易伙伴，都試圖最大化其報(bào)復(fù)的政治影響。歐盟對(duì)產(chǎn)自肯塔基州的波本威士忌和產(chǎn)自威斯康星州的哈雷-戴維森摩托車(Harley-Davidson motorcycles)征收關(guān)稅，肯塔基州是參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇·麥康奈爾(Mitch McConnell)的家鄉(xiāng)，而威斯康星州則是眾議院議長(zhǎng)保羅·瑞安(Paul Ryan)的家鄉(xiāng)。中國(guó)對(duì)大豆征收關(guān)稅的決定打擊了特朗普在中西部農(nóng)場(chǎng)地帶一些最堅(jiān)定的支持者。

Like most successful American exports, soybeans are produced at high efficiency by a small number of workers using cutting-edge technologies, like tractors connected to satellites so the optimal mix of fertilizers can be spread on each square foot of farmland. The United States exported $26 billion in soybeans last year and more than half went to China.

像大多數(shù)成功的美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品一樣，大豆是由少數(shù)工人使用尖端技術(shù)高效生產(chǎn)出來的，比如拖拉機(jī)與衛(wèi)星連接，因此可以將肥料的最優(yōu)組合播撒在每一個(gè)平方英尺的農(nóng)田上。去年，美國(guó)出口了260億美元大豆，超過一半運(yùn)往中國(guó)。

Some farmers in North Dakota say they trust Trump to negotiate in the nation’s interest. Karel said many of his customers wear red “Make American Great Again” caps and insist that the pain of lost business and lower profits is worthwhile. They say they will suffer now so their children benefit later — echoing the argument Trump has made.

北達(dá)科他州的一些農(nóng)民說他們相信特朗普會(huì)為了國(guó)家的利益進(jìn)行談判?？ɡ谞栒f，他的許多顧客戴著紅色“讓美國(guó)恢復(fù)偉大榮光”(Make America Great Again)帽子，并堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為失去生意和降低利潤(rùn)的痛苦是值得的。他們說他們現(xiàn)在將遭罪，所以他們的孩子以后會(huì)受益——這與特朗普提出的論點(diǎn)相呼應(yīng)。

Others are less enthused. Greg Gebeke, who farms 5,000 acres outside Arthur with two of his brothers, said he struggled to understand the administration’s goals.

有的人則不那么熱忱。格雷格·格貝吉(Greg Gebeke)和他的兩個(gè)兄弟在亞瑟外面種植了5000英畝的土地，他說他很難理解政府的目標(biāo)。

“I’m trying to follow and figure out who the winners are in this tariff war,” Gebeke said. “I know who one of the losers are and that’s us. And that’s painful.”

“我正在關(guān)注并找出這場(chǎng)關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中的贏家是誰，”格貝吉說。“但我知道一個(gè)輸家是誰，那就是我們。這很痛苦。”

North Dakota’s soybean industry was created by Chinese demand for the beans, which are crushed to make feed for animals and oil for human consumption.

北達(dá)科他州的大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)是中國(guó)對(duì)大豆的需求造就的，這些大豆被粉碎以制造動(dòng)物飼料和供人們食用的油。

China is by far the world’s largest importer of soybeans. The country consumed 110 million tons of soybeans in 2017, and 87 percent of those beans were imported — the vast majority from either Brazil or the United States. While soybeans are grown throughout the Midwest, the soybean fields of North Dakota are the part of soybean country that is closest to the Pacific Ocean, and so its beans are mostly sent to China.

中國(guó)是迄今世界上最大的大豆進(jìn)口國(guó)。在2017年消耗了1.1億噸大豆，其中87%是進(jìn)口的，絕大多數(shù)來自巴西或美國(guó)。雖然大豆種植遍布整個(gè)中西部地區(qū)，但北達(dá)科他州的大豆田是最接近太平洋的大豆之鄉(xiāng)，因此這里出產(chǎn)的豆類大多被送往中國(guó)。

In the mid-1990s, there were 450,000 acres of soybeans in the state. Last year, there were 6.4 million. As the state’s production of soybeans increased, companies spent millions of dollars on larger grain elevators, on the 110-car trains that carry the soybeans west to the Pacific Coast, on bigger terminals at the ports. A few years ago, Gebeke traded his grain drill, used to plant wheat, for a second machine to plant soybeans.

在1990年代中期，該州有大約45萬英畝的大豆。去年有640萬英畝。隨著大豆產(chǎn)量的增加，公司花費(fèi)數(shù)百萬美元購(gòu)置谷倉(cāng)塔，用于將大豆往西運(yùn)到太平洋海岸的110節(jié)車廂的火車，還在港口擴(kuò)建了碼頭。幾年前，格貝吉將用于種植小麥的谷物播種機(jī)換成了第二臺(tái)種植大豆的機(jī)器。

The Arthur Companies in 2016 opened a shiny drying, storage and loading facility that can hold 2.7 million bushels of beans waiting for the next train.

亞瑟公司于2016年啟用了一個(gè)嶄新的干燥、儲(chǔ)存和裝載設(shè)施，可以容納270萬蒲式耳正等待下一班火車的大豆。

Soybean farmers also spent millions of dollars cultivating the Chinese market. Farmers in North Dakota and other states contribute a fixed percentage of revenue to a federal fund called the “soybean checkoff” that pays for marketing programs like trade missions to China and research intended to convince Chinese farmers that pigs raised on American soybeans grow faster and fatter. In 2015, North Dakota soybean farmers footed the bill for an event in Shanghai honoring the 10 “most loyal” buyers of American soybeans.

大豆農(nóng)民還花費(fèi)了數(shù)百萬美元來培育中國(guó)市場(chǎng)。北達(dá)科他州和其他州的農(nóng)民將一定比例的收入貢獻(xiàn)給名為“大豆核查”的聯(lián)邦基金，該基金為中國(guó)貿(mào)易代表團(tuán)等市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷計(jì)劃付費(fèi)，旨在讓中國(guó)農(nóng)民相信，用美國(guó)大豆飼養(yǎng)的豬可以更快長(zhǎng)胖。2015年，北達(dá)科他州大豆種植者為在上海舉辦的一項(xiàng)活動(dòng)出資，表彰10位“最忠誠(chéng)”的美國(guó)大豆買家。

The soybean industry’s sales pitch emphasized the reliability of American infrastructure and the political stability of the United States. The message was that the Chinese could be confident that American farmers would deliver high quality soybeans.

大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的推銷活動(dòng)強(qiáng)調(diào)美國(guó)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的可靠性和美國(guó)的政治穩(wěn)定性。傳遞的信息是，中國(guó)人可以信任美國(guó)農(nóng)民能提供高質(zhì)量的大豆。

“I’ve been to China 25 times in the last decade talking about the dependability of U.S. soybeans,” said Kirk Leeds, the chief executive of the Iowa Soybean Association. By undermining that reputation, he said, “We have done long-term damage to the industry.”

“在過去的十年中，我曾25次訪問中國(guó)，告訴他們美國(guó)大豆有多么可靠，”艾奧瓦州大豆協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)柯克·利茲(Kirk Leeds)說。他說，通過削弱這種聲譽(yù)，“我們已經(jīng)對(duì)該行業(yè)造成了長(zhǎng)期損害。”

Gebeke, 65, recalled President Jimmy Carter’s decision to suspend wheat sales to the Soviet Union in 1979. The embargo ended two years later but, by then, the Soviets were getting more of their grain from Ukraine. Speaking of the soybean standoff, he said, “They could get together tomorrow and iron this thing all out and I don’t think we’ll ever get all of our market back.”

現(xiàn)年65歲的格貝吉回憶起吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)總統(tǒng)曾于1979年決定暫停向蘇聯(lián)出售小麥。兩年后禁運(yùn)結(jié)束了，但到了那時(shí)候，蘇聯(lián)人從烏克蘭獲得了更多糧食。談到大豆方面的對(duì)峙，他說，“就算他們明天就開會(huì)把所有事都解決掉，我也不認(rèn)為到時(shí)候我們能把所有的市場(chǎng)都拿回來。”

As China swallows the world’s supply of non-American soybeans, other countries are buying more beans from the United States, especially European nations that usually import beans from Brazil.

隨著中國(guó)吞噬世界上所有非美國(guó)產(chǎn)的大豆供應(yīng)，其他國(guó)家則從美國(guó)購(gòu)買更多豆類，特別是通常從巴西進(jìn)口豆類的歐洲國(guó)家。

Some nations that grow soybeans, like Canada, are shipping their own beans to China at high prices and then buying American beans at lower prices to meet domestic demand. Taiwan, seeking to curry favor, signed a deal to buy more American soybeans over the next two years.

一些種植大豆的國(guó)家，如加拿大，正以高價(jià)向中國(guó)出口豆類，然后以較低的價(jià)格購(gòu)買美國(guó)豆以滿足國(guó)內(nèi)需求。臺(tái)灣希望討好美國(guó)，遂簽署了未來兩年收購(gòu)更多美國(guó)大豆的協(xié)議。

None of this is nearly enough. During the first six weeks of the current export year, which began in September, American soybean exports to China are down by about 6 million tons from last year, while soybean exports to the rest of the world are up by only 3 million tons.

這些都不夠。在9月份開始的當(dāng)前出口年度的前六周，美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的大豆出口量比去年減少了約600萬噸，而對(duì)世界其他地區(qū)的大豆出口量?jī)H增加了300萬噸。

Some analysts predict China will be forced to buy more American beans after it exhausts other sources. Others are hopeful that China and the United States will reach a deal to remove the tariffs.

一些分析人士預(yù)測(cè)，在耗盡其他來源后，中國(guó)將被迫購(gòu)買更多的美國(guó)豆。還有人則認(rèn)為中國(guó)和美國(guó)有望達(dá)成協(xié)議以取消關(guān)稅。

But waiting carries risks. Soybeans can spoil and Brazil harvests its crop in the spring, creating fresh competition for American beans.

但等待會(huì)帶來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。大豆會(huì)腐壞，巴西在春季收獲其作物，為美國(guó)豆創(chuàng)造了新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

“Hope is unfortunately a terrible marketing plan,” said Nancy Johnson, executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association. “不幸的是，‘希望’是一種糟糕的營(yíng)銷計(jì)劃，”北達(dá)科他州大豆種植者協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)南希·約翰遜(Nancy Johnson)說。

The industry continues to seek new markets. Jim Sutter, chief executive of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said he was focused on persuading Indians to eat more chicken. The council, which already provides funding to Indian trade groups, is planning to back an advertising campaign.

該行業(yè)繼續(xù)尋求新的市場(chǎng)。美國(guó)大豆出口委員會(huì)首席執(zhí)行官吉姆·薩特(Jim Sutter)說，他專注于說服印度人吃更多雞肉。該委員會(huì)已經(jīng)為印度貿(mào)易集團(tuán)提供資金，計(jì)劃支持一項(xiàng)廣告活動(dòng)。

“People in India will eat more protein as the economy grows, but our job is to speed that up,” Sutter said.

“隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，印度人將食用更多蛋白質(zhì)，但我們的工作就是提高其速度，”薩特說。

The Trump administration said in August that it would distribute $3.6 billion to soybean farmers to offset the decline in market prices. The subsidy rate of 82.5 cents per bushel, however, covers less than half of the losses facing North Dakota farmers at current market prices.

特朗普政府8月份表示將向大豆農(nóng)民分發(fā)36億美元，以抵消市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的下跌。然而，這筆錢折合每蒲式耳82.5美分的補(bǔ)貼率，不到目前市場(chǎng)價(jià)格導(dǎo)致北達(dá)科他州農(nóng)民所面臨損失的一半。