貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級(jí)，中國(guó)手中籌碼不足？

President Trump imposed tariffs in July on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China matched them dollar for dollar with its own.

特朗普總統(tǒng)在7月份開(kāi)始對(duì)價(jià)值340億美元的中國(guó)商品加征關(guān)稅。中國(guó)對(duì)同等價(jià)值的美國(guó)商品加征了關(guān)稅。

Then he hit an additional $16 billion in goods in August. China matched that, too.

后來(lái)，特朗普在8月份又把價(jià)值160億美元的中國(guó)商品包括了進(jìn)來(lái)。中國(guó)也做出了同等回應(yīng)。

Now, Mr. Trump has made his biggest move yet, announcing 10 percent tariffs starting in a week on $200 billion a year of Chinese goods. But this time, China can’t match them all — and that crystallizes a growing problem for Beijing.

現(xiàn)在，特朗普拿出了他迄今為止規(guī)模最大的舉措，宣布在一周內(nèi)開(kāi)始對(duì)美國(guó)每年從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的價(jià)值2000億美元的中國(guó)商品加征10%的關(guān)稅。但這次，中國(guó)無(wú)法做出完全對(duì)等的回應(yīng)，這突顯了北京面臨的一個(gè)日益嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。

On Tuesday, Chinese officials responded to the president’s latest move by following through on an earlier threat to impose tariffs on $60 billion in American goods — nearly everything China buys from the United States.

周二，中國(guó)官員回應(yīng)了特朗普總統(tǒng)近期采取的行動(dòng)，他們兌現(xiàn)之前的威脅，對(duì)價(jià)值600億美元的美國(guó)商品加征關(guān)稅——這幾乎是中國(guó)從美國(guó)購(gòu)買(mǎi)的全部商品。

China’s responses have so far failed to thwart Mr. Trump’s trade offensive, and with the White House amping up the fight again, Chinese leaders aren’t sure how to respond, people briefed on economic policymaking discussions say.

中國(guó)的回應(yīng)迄今為止未能阻撓特朗普的貿(mào)易攻勢(shì)，據(jù)了解制定經(jīng)濟(jì)政策討論的人士說(shuō)，隨著白宮再次加大打擊力度，中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對(duì)如何回應(yīng)有些拿不準(zhǔn)。

Chinese officials “are generally confused,” said Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda, a trade specialist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has been traveling around China speaking with officials, businesspeople and workers.

中國(guó)的官員們“普遍有些迷茫”，美國(guó)加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的貿(mào)易專家勞爾·伊諾霍薩-奧赫達(dá)(Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda)說(shuō)。

“They don’t know what to do,” he added. “They worry that the tit-for-tat model is playing into Trump’s hands.”

“他們不知道該怎么辦，”他還說(shuō)。“他們擔(dān)心，針?shù)h相對(duì)的做法正中了特朗普的下懷。”

China doesn’t import nearly enough from the United States to target $200 billion in American goods — let alone the additional $267 billion in Chinese goods that Mr. Trump has threatened to tax.

中國(guó)從美國(guó)進(jìn)口的商品遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)達(dá)不到針對(duì)2000億美元的等價(jià)商品加征關(guān)稅的規(guī)模——更不用說(shuō)特朗普進(jìn)一步威脅征收關(guān)稅的2670億美元等價(jià)商品了。

But China’s leaders feel they can’t back down. They have presented the trade war as part of a broader effort by the United States to contain China’s rise.

但中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人覺(jué)得他們不能讓步。他們已把這場(chǎng)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)作為美國(guó)遏制中國(guó)崛起的更廣泛努力的一部分。

Mr. Trump has said as much, and did so again at a news conference on Tuesday. “China has been taking advantage of the United States for a long time, and that’s not happening anymore,” he said.

特朗普在周二的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上再次表示：“中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直在占美國(guó)的便宜，這種情況不會(huì)再發(fā)生了。”他此前曾多次表達(dá)類似觀點(diǎn)。

The Chinese public could see any effort to soothe tensions as capitulation.

中國(guó)公眾可能會(huì)把任何緩和緊張局勢(shì)的舉措視為投降。

Lou Jiwei, who retired as finance minister in 2016 but is still the head of the country’s social security fund, suggested on Sunday that China could deliberately disrupt American companies’ supply chains by halting the export of crucial components mostly made in China. But Chinese trade experts dismiss that idea as impractical and not the government’s position.

2016年卸任中國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)、現(xiàn)在仍是中國(guó)社會(huì)保障基金負(fù)責(zé)人的樓繼偉在周日表示，中國(guó)可以通過(guò)停止出口大部分由中國(guó)制造的關(guān)鍵零部件，有意擾亂美國(guó)企業(yè)的供應(yīng)鏈。但中國(guó)的貿(mào)易專家們認(rèn)為這種想法不切實(shí)際，也不是政府的立場(chǎng)。

Chinese officials know what they don’t want to do. They have rejected one idea that would replace the matching tariffs with a more sophisticated system, said the people briefed on the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the fragility of the deliberations. That response — discussed in detail within the Commerce Ministry and other agencies — would have led to lower tariffs on American goods in dollar terms, which could be seen as a fig leaf to the White House.

中國(guó)官員知道他們不想做的是什么。據(jù)知情人士說(shuō)，官員們已經(jīng)否決了用一個(gè)更復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)來(lái)取代對(duì)同等價(jià)值商品加征關(guān)稅的方法，由于有關(guān)討論的敏感性，這些知情人士要求不具名。商務(wù)部和其他機(jī)構(gòu)曾在內(nèi)部對(duì)該想法進(jìn)行過(guò)詳細(xì)的討論，這種回應(yīng)將會(huì)降低以美元計(jì)算的對(duì)美國(guó)商品征稅額，在白宮眼里這可能被視為一種遮羞布。

That approach would have recognized a potentially expensive new reality for Beijing: The tariffs may be here to stay. Mr. Trump is suffering from weak approval ratings and could lose influence in congressional elections in November. But while Democrats have opposed most of his agenda, many have supported his attacks on trade with China. Even if Mr. Trump leaves office in two years, there is little guarantee that his China trade policies will be changed.

這樣做會(huì)表明，北京承認(rèn)了一個(gè)可能代價(jià)高昂的新現(xiàn)實(shí)：關(guān)稅一時(shí)半不會(huì)取消。特朗普的支持率很低，可能會(huì)失去在今年11月的國(guó)會(huì)選舉中的影響力。雖然民主黨人反對(duì)特朗普的大部分議程，但許多人支持他在對(duì)華貿(mào)易上采取的攻勢(shì)。即使特朗普兩年后不連任，也很難保證繼任者將改變特朗普的對(duì)華貿(mào)易政策。

In Beijing, proponents of the new approach, which would scale down China’s tariffs in dollar terms to reflect the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries, say Chinese leaders could still revisit the idea because it offers them a way to contain the damage and soothe tensions.

新思路會(huì)降低以美元計(jì)的中國(guó)關(guān)稅，以反映中美貿(mào)易的不平衡。在北京，新思路的支持者表示中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人仍可能會(huì)重新考慮這種做法，因?yàn)樗麄兛梢越璐丝刂茡p失、緩和緊張局勢(shì)。

China’s leaders “don’t really want to engage in a dollar-for-dollar retaliation,” said Yu Yongding, a prominent economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Their purpose is to stop this trade war.”

中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人“不是真的想用一美元對(duì)一美元的方式進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)”，中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家余永定說(shuō)。“他們的目標(biāo)是停止這場(chǎng)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。”

China’s other options are limited.

中國(guó)沒(méi)有太多別的選擇。

It could punish American businesses that depend on China. Already, its antitrust officials have effectively killed the $44 billion effort by Qualcomm, the semiconductor company, to buy a Dutch chip maker. China has also pledged to buy soybeans from other countries, but replacing voluminous American supplies will be difficult.

中國(guó)可能會(huì)懲罰依賴中國(guó)的美國(guó)企業(yè)。中國(guó)的反壟斷官員實(shí)際上已經(jīng)阻止了半導(dǎo)體公司高通(Qualcomm)花440億美元收購(gòu)一家荷蘭芯片制造商的努力。中國(guó)還承諾從其他國(guó)家購(gòu)買(mǎi)大豆，但全面取代規(guī)模巨大的美國(guó)大豆供應(yīng)將很困難。

Other moves have already served as warnings, like delays at Chinese ports. Ford Motor’s Lincoln cars and other goods have sometimes been the subject of unusually lengthy customs inspections this summer, although the delays do not appear to have caused much financial harm.

其他比如中國(guó)港口拖時(shí)間的做法已經(jīng)起到了警告的作用。今年夏天，福特汽車公司的林肯轎車和其他產(chǎn)品有時(shí)會(huì)受到異常緩慢的海關(guān)檢查，盡管這些拖延似乎并未造成多少經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。

“It is certain that China will have other, invisible retaliation against the United States,” said Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Commerce Ministry’s policy research and training academy.

“中國(guó)肯定會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)采取其他的隱形報(bào)復(fù)，”商務(wù)部國(guó)際貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)合作研究院研究員梅新育說(shuō)。

But more drastic moves, like closing factories or encouraging consumer boycotts of American goods, could eliminate Chinese jobs. They could also permanently damage China’s reputation as a place to do business and only accelerate corporate plans to look to other countries.

但采取比如關(guān)閉工廠、或鼓勵(lì)消費(fèi)者抵制美國(guó)商品等更激烈的做法，可能會(huì)減少中國(guó)的就業(yè)崗位。這些做法也可能會(huì)永久性地?fù)p害中國(guó)作為經(jīng)商地的聲譽(yù)，并且只會(huì)加速企業(yè)將目光投向其他國(guó)家的打算。

“It’s difficult to build a reputation, and easy to harm a reputation,” Mr. Mei said.

“建立聲譽(yù)很困難，損壞聲譽(yù)很容易，”梅新育說(shuō)。

China could also guide its currency to a weaker level against the dollar. It has already nudged the currency a bit lower, making Chinese goods cheaper in the United States and partly offsetting the tariffs. But a weaker currency would make China’s imports more expensive, raise the risk of inflation and lead to a potentially damaging flight of money out of the country. It could also provoke further American retaliation.

中國(guó)還可能把人民幣引導(dǎo)到與美元相比更弱的水平。中國(guó)已在逐漸壓低人民幣的價(jià)值，使中國(guó)商品在美國(guó)更便宜，并部分地抵消關(guān)稅的影響。但人民幣走軟將使中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的價(jià)格更高，增加通貨膨脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并導(dǎo)致可能造成破壞性影響的資金外逃。讓人民幣貶值的做法也可能引發(fā)美國(guó)的進(jìn)一步報(bào)復(fù)。

While the trade war has hit only a small part of the Chinese economy for now, the damage could add up. Higher tariffs on American goods raise the cost of essential imports like soybeans and microchips. China still derives a big chunk of growth from making smartphones, clothing, chemicals and a raft of other goods and selling them to Americans.

雖然貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)目前只對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一小部分造成了打擊，但這種損害可能會(huì)積少成多。對(duì)美國(guó)商品征收更高的關(guān)稅提高了大豆和微芯片等重要進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的成本。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一大部分仍靠制造智能手機(jī)、服裝、化學(xué)品和大量其他商品，然后將這些商品賣給美國(guó)人。

Already its currency and stock market have weakened as the trade war has intensified. China has taken steps to shore up its economy, but they could take months or years to kick in.

隨著貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的加劇，中國(guó)的貨幣和股市已在走弱。中國(guó)已采取措施支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)，但這些措施可能需要數(shù)月或數(shù)年的時(shí)間才能見(jiàn)效。

China has offered small concessions to the United States, like lowering its tariffs on imported cars from everywhere to 15 percent, from 25 percent; the United States, however, charges 2.5 percent. China has also allowed foreign companies to own greater shares of Chinese insurers, banks, asset management companies and car factories.

中國(guó)已向美國(guó)做出了一些小小的讓步，比如降低了來(lái)自世界各地的進(jìn)口汽車的關(guān)稅，從25%降至15%;但美國(guó)對(duì)進(jìn)口汽車只收2.5%的關(guān)稅。中國(guó)還已允許外國(guó)企業(yè)在中國(guó)保險(xiǎn)公司、銀行、資產(chǎn)管理公司和汽車廠中持有更多的股份。

The new plan that Chinese officials rejected in recent weeks could have been more warmly greeted by the White House.

中國(guó)官員在最近幾周里拒絕的這個(gè)新方案，本可能會(huì)受到白宮的更大歡迎。

Under that plan, the United States and China would each levy tariffs based on proportions of trade rather than dollar amounts, people familiar with the discussions said. Because the United States imports nearly four times as much from China as it exports, that would lead to tariffs at different values.

知情人士說(shuō)，按照該方案，美國(guó)和中國(guó)將按同等比例的貿(mào)易額、而不是同等美元的貿(mào)易額來(lái)征收關(guān)稅。因?yàn)槊绹?guó)從中國(guó)的進(jìn)口額幾乎是向中國(guó)的出口額的四倍，這將導(dǎo)致征收關(guān)稅的商品價(jià)值不等。

For example, the United States has already levied tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, one-tenth of what it imports from China. Instead of matching that with tariffs on $50 billion in American-made goods, China would levy tariffs on one-tenth of such goods, totaling $13 billion to $15 billion, depending on the details.

比如，美國(guó)已對(duì)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的10%征收關(guān)稅，價(jià)值500億美元。如果中國(guó)對(duì)其從美國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的10%，而不是500億美元的等值美國(guó)制造商品征收關(guān)稅的話，受關(guān)稅影響的美國(guó)商品額將在130億至150億美元之間，視具體情況而定。

Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them.

支持該方案的人說(shuō)，讓華盛頓比北京征收更多的關(guān)稅，實(shí)際上會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)造成更大的傷害，因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅最終是由征收關(guān)稅國(guó)家的消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)支付的。

“The United States wants to hurt China by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports,” Mr. Yu, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist, wrote in a journal in July. “In the end, it may be the United States itself” that is hurt, he wrote.

“美國(guó)想通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品加征關(guān)稅打痛中國(guó)，”中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家余永定今年7月在雜志上發(fā)文章寫(xiě)道。“到頭來(lái)，被打痛可能是美國(guó)自己。”

But other Chinese trade experts say tariffs on equal fractions of trade would be too big a compromise.

但也有一些中國(guó)貿(mào)易專家說(shuō)，對(duì)同等比例的貿(mào)易額加征關(guān)稅將是一個(gè)太大的妥協(xié)。

“It’s unrealistic, it’s difficult in practice, it’s not doable, and it’s against basic trade rules,” said Mr. Mei, the Commerce Ministry researcher.

“這不現(xiàn)實(shí)，做起來(lái)有困難，不可行，而且違反了基本的貿(mào)易規(guī)則，”商務(wù)部的研究員梅新育說(shuō)。