文在寅交給金正恩的U盤里有什么？

SEOUL, South Korea — For years, Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, has been cracking down on USB flash drives that activists smuggle into his isolated country to poison his people’s minds with outside influences, like South Korean K-pop music.

韓國首爾——多年來，朝鮮領(lǐng)導人金正恩一直在打擊活動人士向他的孤立國家走私USB閃存盤的行動，以防他的人民的思想受到外界、比如韓國流行音樂的影響。

But last month, when he met with the South’s president, Moon Jae-in, Mr. Moon handed him a USB drive that contained quite a different message.

但上個月，當他與韓國總統(tǒng)會面時，文在寅一個把帶著相當不同信息的U盤交給了金正恩。

In charts and video clips, Mr. Moon’s memory stick laid out a “new economic map for the Korean Peninsula,” including new railways and power plants for the impoverished North, should Mr. Kim abandon his nuclear weapons, according to South Korean officials.

據(jù)韓國官員說，在閃存盤上，文在寅用圖表和視頻片段展示了一幅“為朝鮮半島設(shè)想的新的經(jīng)濟版圖”，包括為貧困的朝鮮修建新的鐵路和發(fā)電廠，前提是如果金正恩放棄核武器的話。

Mr. Moon based his sales pitch on the belief that Mr. Kim wants to become the North Korean equivalent of Deng Xiaoping, who oversaw the economic liberalization of China. In this view, Mr. Kim may be willing to transform his pariah state by trading in his nuclear arsenal for diplomatic and economic incentives he needs to achieve prosperity.

文在寅推銷的宣傳基于這樣一個信念，那就是，金正恩想成為朝鮮版的鄧小平，鄧小平領(lǐng)導了中國的經(jīng)濟自由化。這個信念認為，為了改變他那被國際社會遺棄的國家，金正恩也許愿意拿自己的核武庫做交易，以換取為實現(xiàn)繁榮所需的外交和經(jīng)濟鼓勵。

It is a premise that will be tested when President Trump meets with Mr. Kim in a few weeks’ time. When Mr. Moon met with Mr. Kim on the inter-Korean border on April 27 to help set up the North Korea-United States summit, he handed over the USB drive to illustrate what benefits awaited Mr. Kim should he denuclearize.

這個假設(shè)將在幾周后特朗普總統(tǒng)與金正恩會面時得到檢驗。文在寅于4月27日在朝韓邊境上與金正恩會面，幫助安排朝美峰會時，為了向金正恩說明如果去核化會得到什么好處，把這個U盤交給了金正恩。

“Kim Jong-un’s desire to develop his country’s economy is as strong as, and even stronger than, his desire for nuclear weapons,” said Lee Jong-seok, a former unification minister of South Korea. “But he knows he cannot achieve the kind of rapid economic growth in China that he envisions for his country while keeping his nuclear weapons — because of the sanctions.”

“金正恩有發(fā)展本國經(jīng)濟的渴望，這種渴望與他的核武器渴望一樣強烈，甚至更強烈，”韓國前統(tǒng)一部部長李鐘奭(Lee Jong-seok)說。“但他知道，如果他保留核武器的話，由于國際制裁，他無法實現(xiàn)他為自己的國家所設(shè)想的、像中國那樣的經(jīng)濟快速增長。”

Skeptics doubt Mr. Kim’s xenophobic regime will ever surrender its nuclear deterrent.

持懷疑態(tài)度的人不相信金正恩的仇外政權(quán)會有朝一日放棄自己的核威懾。

But since the inter-Korean summit meeting, many South Koreans have started to believe that Mr. Kim is a “trustworthy” reformer, according to recent surveys. A growing number of South Korean analysts have also begun arguing that Mr. Kim wants to follow the model of the South’s own past military dictators who focused on economic prosperity, or that Mr. Kim has convinced himself from China’s experience that he can pursue economic growth while maintaining one-party rule.

但最近的調(diào)查顯示，自從韓朝峰會以來，許多韓國人開始相信金正恩是一個“值得信賴的”改革者。越來越多的韓國分析人士也開始認為，金正恩或想采用韓國過去的軍事獨裁者把注意力放在繁榮經(jīng)濟上的模式，或已經(jīng)被中國的經(jīng)驗說服，他可以在保持一黨統(tǒng)治的同時追求經(jīng)濟增長。

Such a theory was much harder to sell just months ago, when the 34-year-old North Korean was more often depicted as a bloodthirsty dictator and nuclear provocateur.

就在幾個月前，這種理論還很難被人接受。那時，這位34歲的朝鮮領(lǐng)導人常常被描繪成一個嗜殺成性的獨裁者和核挑釁者。

Since taking power in 2011, Mr. Kim has executed scores of top officials, including his own uncle. He has also tested a hydrogen bomb and long-range missiles, claiming that he could hit the mainland United States with nuclear warheads.

自從2011年掌權(quán)以來，金正恩已經(jīng)處決了幾十名高級官員，其中包括自己的姑父。他還進行了一次氫彈試驗以及多次遠程導彈試驗，并聲稱他能用核彈頭打擊美國大陸。

Vilified as he was, however, Mr. Kim has also shown signs of being a reformer, granting farms and factories more autonomy, allowing more markets to open, and setting off a building boom in his showcase capital, Pyongyang. He exhorts his country to follow “international development trends” and “global standards” and even admits failing to deliver on his promise that his long-suffering people would “no longer have to tighten their belts.”

盡管人們這樣看他，但金正恩還是表現(xiàn)出了許多要當改革家的跡象，他已經(jīng)賦予農(nóng)場和工廠更多的自主權(quán)，允許設(shè)立更多的市場，并在自己的櫥窗首都平壤掀起了一場建設(shè)熱潮。他敦促自己的國家緊跟“國際發(fā)展趨勢”和“世界水平”，甚至承認未能兌現(xiàn)自己對長期吃苦受難的人民作出的“不再需要勒緊褲帶”的承諾。

“My desires were burning all the time, but I spent the past year feeling anxious and remorseful for the lack of my ability,” Mr. Kim said in a nationally broadcast speech last year, a startling admission for a member of the family that has ruled North Korea with the help of a personality cult since its founding in 1948.

“我的愿望每時每刻都是火熱的，但在過去一年里，我因為自己的能力不足，沉浸在焦慮和悔恨之中，”金正恩在去年的一次對全國廣播的講話中說，對自1948年成立以來一直借助個人崇拜統(tǒng)治朝鮮的家族的一員來說，這是一次驚人的承認。

After meeting him, Mr. Moon called Mr. Kim “open-minded and practical.”

與金正恩會面后，文在寅稱金正恩“思想開放和務(wù)實”。

Nowhere is Mr. Kim’s dilemma better seen than in his policy of “byungjin,” or parallel advance, which seeks a nuclear arsenal and economic development simultaneously. Under that policy, Mr. Kim has rapidly developed his country’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, arguing that a nuclear deterrent would make his country feel secure enough to focus on rebuilding the economy. But the world has responded by imposing crippling sanctions.

金正恩的困境在他的“并進”政策中得到了再好不過的表現(xiàn)，該政策尋求經(jīng)濟與核武庫的并行發(fā)展。在這個政策指導下，金正恩迅速發(fā)展了朝鮮的核武器和彈道導彈項目，他認為，核威懾能力將讓他的國家有足夠的安全感，從而能把精力放在重建經(jīng)濟上。但是，國際社會對此的響應(yīng)是采取嚴厲的制裁措施。

“Kim Jong-un is at a crossroads,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute in Seoul, South Korea’s capital. “He could advance his nuclear weapons program further and face a deeper isolation and possible economic ruin. Or he could use it as a bargaining card to win normalized ties and a peace treaty with the United States and economic recovery.”

“金正恩正處在一個十字路口上，”位于韓國首都首爾的世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)高級分析師鄭相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)說。“他可以進一步推進他的核武器計劃，從而面臨更嚴重的孤立和可能的經(jīng)濟毀滅?；蛘撸部梢园押宋淦髯鳛橐环N討價還價的砝碼，以換取與美國關(guān)系的正?；⒑推綏l約和經(jīng)濟復蘇。”

If Mr. Kim pursues the route of economic reform, energy and transport are the two areas where he most needs outside help. In his meeting with Mr. Moon, Mr. Kim admitted to the “embarrassing” condition of his roads and railways, South Korean officials said.

如果金正恩堅持經(jīng)濟改革的路線，能源和交通是他最需要外界幫助的兩個領(lǐng)域。韓國官員說，金正恩在與文在寅的會談中承認，朝鮮的道路和鐵路狀況“令人尷尬”。

Trains running on electricity remain North Korea’s main means of transport, carrying 90 percent of its cargo and 60 percent of its passenger traffic, according to Ahn Byung-min, a senior analyst at the South’s government-funded Korea Transport Institute. But its rail systems are so decrepit that its fastest train, which runs to the Chinese border from Pyongyang, travels at 28 miles an hour. Other trains run at less than half that speed, Mr. Ahn said.

電氣化鐵路仍然是朝鮮的主要交通工具，承載著90%的貨運量和60%的客流量，安炳民(Ahn Byung-min)說，他是韓國政府支持的韓國運輸研究所(Korea transport Institute)的高級分析師。但朝鮮的鐵路系統(tǒng)非常落后，運行于平壤和中國邊境之間的列車是其最快的列車，這趟車每小時的速度只有45公里。安炳民說，其他列車的速度還不到這個的一半。

Lacking cash for oil imports, North Korea produces all its electricity from hydroelectric dams and coal-burning power plants. But the country’s power industry is trapped in a vicious cycle, energy experts say. Chronic electricity shortages make it difficult to produce coal and transport it to power plants. People in search of firewood for heat and cooking have denuded their hills, causing floods and droughts and making silt pile up at dams. That cuts down hydroelectric generation.

由于缺乏進口石油的外匯，朝鮮的電力全部來自水電站和燃煤發(fā)電廠。但能源專家說，朝鮮的電力行業(yè)正陷入一個惡性循環(huán)。長期的電力短缺讓煤炭生產(chǎn)以及將煤炭運到發(fā)電廠變得困難。需要用柴火取暖做飯的人們已經(jīng)把朝鮮的山變成了荒山，導致洪水和干旱，也導致泥沙在大壩下面堆積，降低了水力發(fā)電的能力。

North Korea’s electricity generation amounts to only 4.4 percent of South Korea’s, according to Park Eun-jeong, an analyst at the South’s Korea Development Bank. The country prioritizes supplying electricity to lighting statues of Mr. Kim’s father and grandfather, who had ruled before him, while passengers wait for hours in trains unable to move because of power shortages, according to defectors from the country.

據(jù)韓國國家開發(fā)銀行(Korea Development Bank)分析師樸恩正(Park Eun-jeong，音)的說法，朝鮮的發(fā)電量只相當于韓國的4.4%。脫北者說，朝鮮把電力優(yōu)先提供給為金正恩的父親和祖父的雕像照明，他們在金正恩之前統(tǒng)治過朝鮮，與此同時，乘客們只好在火車站上長時間地等待因電力不足而遲遲不來的列車。

“Electricity is the Achilles’ heel for North Korea,” said Lee Jong-heon, an energy analyst in Seoul.

“電力是朝鮮的致命弱點，”首爾的能源分析師李忠憲(Lee Jong-heon，音)說。

Mr. Moon’s proposal to modernize the North’s roads and railways and link them to the South’s is not just meant to help North Korea.

文在寅為朝鮮公路和鐵路實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化、把它們與韓國的系統(tǒng)連接起來的提議，不僅僅是為了幫助朝鮮。

South Korean policymakers say that the two Koreas must first integrate their economies to make the eventual reunification less chaotic. They also envision building trans-Korean railways to find faster and cheaper routes to export South Korean goods to China, Russia and Europe, and bring Russian oil and gas into the South through pipelines for its power-hungry economy.

韓國政策制定者說，朝鮮和韓國必須先在經(jīng)濟上實現(xiàn)一體化，才能在最終實現(xiàn)統(tǒng)一時不發(fā)生太多的混亂。他們也設(shè)想通過建設(shè)橫貫朝鮮半島的鐵路來尋找向中國、俄羅斯和歐洲出口韓國產(chǎn)品的更快、成本更低的途徑，同時通過建設(shè)管道把俄羅斯的石油和天然氣輸送到韓國，以滿足其經(jīng)濟的能源需求。

But that is unlikely to happen until the North denuclearizes.

但這一切都不太可能發(fā)生，除非朝鮮實現(xiàn)無核化。

In 2007, the two Koreas temporarily connected two short stretches of railway across their border, but further efforts to reconnect the two systems have been suspended amid rising tensions over the North’s nuclear program. In 2004, South Korea opened a joint industrial park in the North Korean town of Kaesong and sent electricity to run it. But the park was closed after the North’s nuclear test in 2016.

2007年，朝鮮和韓國曾暫時性地把兩小段鐵路跨越邊界連接起來，但由于朝鮮核項目的緊張局勢不斷升級，重新連接兩國鐵路系統(tǒng)的進一步努力一直處于擱置狀態(tài)。2004年，韓國在朝鮮的開城工業(yè)園區(qū)設(shè)立了一個聯(lián)合工業(yè)園，并為其運作提供了電力。但朝鮮在2016年進行了核試驗后，該園區(qū)被關(guān)閉了。

Now, with Mr. Kim reportedly willing to discuss denuclearization, there are renewed hopes in the South.

如今，受有關(guān)金正恩愿意討論無核化的報道的鼓舞，韓國重新燃起了希望。

“Reunification can start with reconnecting energy and transport lines of the two Koreas,” said Mr. Lee.

“半島統(tǒng)一可以從重新連接兩國的能源和運輸線路開始，”李忠憲說。