美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)高官：加息太快可能拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇

The Federal Reserve risks dragging down the US’s recovery by increasing interest rates while cutting back its own multi-trillion dollar balance sheet, a top Fed official has warned.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)一位高級(jí)官員警告稱，如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一邊提高利率，一邊縮減自身的數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，就有可能拖累美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

James Bullard, the St Louis Fed president and one of a handful of doves in the Fed system, said lifting rates four times in 2018 could drive down inflation — especially when the central bank’s programme of reducing its asset holdings is becoming “more and more forceful”.

圣路易斯聯(lián)儲(chǔ)銀行(St Louis Federal Reserve)行長(zhǎng)、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)體系中為數(shù)不多的鴿派之一詹姆斯•布拉德(James Bullard)表示，2018年加息四次可能壓低通脹——尤其是在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)減少資產(chǎn)持有量的計(jì)劃變得“越來(lái)越有力”的情況下。

The central bank began gradually unwinding its $4.5tn balance sheet in October last year.

去年10月，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開(kāi)始逐步縮減其4.5萬(wàn)億美元的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。

“You would not have to go very high in this environment to be in a restrictive policy stance,” Mr Bullard said in a Financial Times interview. “If we went too far we would start to put downward pressure on inflation in an environment where inflation is already below target.”

“在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下，不必在限制性的政策立場(chǎng)上走得太遠(yuǎn)，”布拉德在接受英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》采訪時(shí)表示，“如果我們走得太遠(yuǎn)，我們將開(kāi)始在通脹本已低于目標(biāo)的情況下給通脹帶來(lái)下行壓力。”

But the balance of opinion in the Federal Open Market Committee is becoming more hawkish, largely because of the strength of the jobs market, which added 313,000 workers last month.

但聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC)的觀點(diǎn)正變得越來(lái)越鷹派，這主要是受到就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的鼓舞，上月就業(yè)人數(shù)增加了31.3萬(wàn)人。

Lael Brainard, traditionally one of the FOMC’s leading doves, argued last week that gradual interest rates were likely to be appropriate, as headwinds to growth became tailwinds. Such comments echo the sentiments of Jay Powell, the Fed Chairman.

傳統(tǒng)上是聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)領(lǐng)先鴿派成員之一的萊爾•布雷納德(Lael Brainard)上周表示，隨著增長(zhǎng)的逆風(fēng)成了順風(fēng)，漸進(jìn)式加息可能是適當(dāng)?shù)?。此言呼?yīng)了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)的觀點(diǎn)。