東北衰落困擾中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)

Echo Zhang has long given up on moving back to her hometown in north-east China to be closer to her ageing parents. There simply aren’t any jobs.

Echo Zhang早已放棄了這個(gè)念頭：回到中國(guó)東北老家，距離她年邁的父母近一點(diǎn)。那里根本沒(méi)有什么工作。

“In Beijing I see new technologies changing the city continuously,” the 39-year-old engineer says. “But when I go back to Jilin, it’s like stepping back in time — it’s developed so slowly.”

“在北京，我看到新技術(shù)正持續(xù)改變著這個(gè)城市，”這位39歲的工程師表示，“但當(dāng)我回到吉林，就好像時(shí)光倒流，它發(fā)展得太慢了。”

Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang, the three provinces of north-east China, were once the pride of the country’s planned industrial economy.

中國(guó)東北三省——吉林、遼寧和黑龍江曾經(jīng)是中國(guó)計(jì)劃工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的驕傲。

But they have been among the worst hit by the scaling back of traditional heavy industries such as coal and steel and by the long-term decline in its state-owned enterprises. The north-east’s contribution to gross domestic product almost halved to 7 per cent in 2016 from 13 per cent in 1980.

然而，煤炭和鋼鐵等傳統(tǒng)重工業(yè)的收縮以及國(guó)有企業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期衰落，讓它們受到最為嚴(yán)重的影響。東北地區(qū)對(duì)中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的貢獻(xiàn)從1980年的13%降至2016年的7%，下降近一半。

As China’s economic growth slows, economists warn that bad loans and lossmaking “zombie” companies are concentrated in trouble-spots such as the north-east. One of its three provinces, Liaoning, last year suffered the first official recession in China since 2009, shrinking by 2.5 per cent.

隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告稱(chēng)，不良貸款和虧損“僵尸”企業(yè)集中在東北等問(wèn)題地區(qū)。東北三省之一的遼寧2016年出現(xiàn)中國(guó)自2009年以來(lái)的第一例正式負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮2.5%。

“The north-east’s decline is a major risk to the Communist party’s goal to deliver a moderately prosperous society,” says Kathryn Rand, former political officer at the British Embassy in Beijing.

英國(guó)駐華大使館前政治處項(xiàng)目官員蘭心(Kathryn Rand)表示：“東北地區(qū)的衰落是中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨建立小康社會(huì)目標(biāo)的一個(gè)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

“This is a particular concern given the north-east’s geopolitical importance bordering North Korea and Russia, where economic and social stability is seen as essential to maintaining the status quo.”

“鑒于東北地區(qū)的地緣政治重要性，這尤其令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)，該地區(qū)與朝鮮和俄羅斯接壤，經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定被視為對(duì)保持現(xiàn)狀至關(guān)重要。”

Beijing has sought to revitalise the region by subsidising the state-owned agricultural, steel and petroleum enterprises that dominate the north-eastern economy, but this strategy has come under fire from some of the country’s most prominent economists.

中國(guó)一直希望通過(guò)補(bǔ)貼主宰東北經(jīng)濟(jì)的國(guó)有農(nóng)業(yè)、鋼鐵和石油企業(yè)來(lái)重振該地區(qū)的發(fā)展，但該戰(zhàn)略遭到中國(guó)一些最知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的抨擊。

“A strategy that expands the output of enterprises that are not viable is a strategy that goes against comparative advantage,” Justin Yifu Lin, a former World Bank chief economist, wrote last year.

前世界銀行(World Bank)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家林毅夫去年寫(xiě)道：“沒(méi)有企業(yè)自生能力的產(chǎn)值擴(kuò)張戰(zhàn)略，也就是違背比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的戰(zhàn)略。”

He proposed a switch in state support to sectors in which the region enjoys advantages over the rest of the country, such as labour-intensive light industry, which would benefit from the region’s relatively cheap wages, and tourism.

他提出，政府支持應(yīng)轉(zhuǎn)向該地區(qū)相對(duì)于中國(guó)其他地區(qū)具備優(yōu)勢(shì)的行業(yè)，例如勞動(dòng)密集型輕工業(yè)(這些行業(yè)將受益于該地區(qū)相對(duì)低廉的薪資)和旅游業(yè)。

Hu Shuli, founder of business magazine Caixin, responded that the region should “shed its big government mindset”, and allow private business to flourish.

商業(yè)雜志《財(cái)新》創(chuàng)始人胡舒立回應(yīng)說(shuō)，該地區(qū)應(yīng)擺脫大政府思維，允許民營(yíng)企業(yè)繁榮發(fā)展。

Andrew Batson, China research director at the Gavekal Dragonomics consultancy, says the battle over the future of the north-east “is a proxy debate for the choices facing China, between market-orientated reforms or state-driven industrial policy”. Government pledges to allow the private market to flourish are at odds with continued state subsidies for government enterprises and locals are increasingly vocal about the failure of local officials to enact market-driven policies.

咨詢(xún)公司龍洲經(jīng)訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)中國(guó)研究主管白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示，圍繞東北未來(lái)的紛爭(zhēng)“代表著有關(guān)中國(guó)面臨的選擇的辯論，是選擇市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)向型改革還是政府驅(qū)動(dòng)型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策”。政府承諾允許民營(yíng)市場(chǎng)繁榮與政府繼續(xù)補(bǔ)貼國(guó)有企業(yè)互相矛盾，當(dāng)?shù)厝苏絹?lái)越多地抱怨地方官員未能實(shí)施市場(chǎng)化政策。

While three-quarters of Chinese graduates chose to work in their home regions last year, according to Beijing-based consultancy Mycos, the figure was less than half in the north-east. About 1.8m are estimated to have left the north-east in the past decade.

根據(jù)北京咨詢(xún)公司麥可思(MyCos)的數(shù)據(jù)，盡管四分之三的中國(guó)畢業(yè)生去年選擇回到家鄉(xiāng)工作，但在東北地區(qū)，這個(gè)數(shù)字不到一半。據(jù)估計(jì)，過(guò)去10年，大約180萬(wàn)人離開(kāi)東北。

“I have no hope for a ‘north-eastern revival’,” says Hao Xuesong, a property developer. Back in Jilin city for a school reunion, his pessimism is shared by former classmates, who say the north-east’s sluggishness is the result of its officials being too “left” — bureaucratic, rigid and wedded to the old ideal of the planned economy.

房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商郝雪松表示：“我對(duì)‘東北振興’不抱希望。”在吉林的一次同學(xué)聚會(huì)上，他的同學(xué)們也持這種悲觀態(tài)度，他們表示，東北的萎靡不振是官員們過(guò)于“落后”的結(jié)果：官僚主義、死板以及拘泥于計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)的舊觀念。

The bureaucracy is also riddled with corruption, according to a former Liaoning civil servant who now works for a multinational company in Shanghai. She says she left “because I couldn’t find a suitable job” in the civil service.

據(jù)現(xiàn)供職于上海一家跨國(guó)公司的一名前遼寧公務(wù)員表示，官僚主義還充斥著腐敗。她表示，她離開(kāi)是“因?yàn)槲?在公共部門(mén))找不到合適的工作”。

“I think the problem is not that getting a promotion is difficult, the problem is it’s not transparent,” she says. “I don’t have the social connections to secure a job in state-owned banks or even local commercial banks. Private companies in Liaoning are less well paid.”

“我認(rèn)為，問(wèn)題不是升職很難，問(wèn)題是不透明，”她表示，“我沒(méi)有人脈在國(guó)有銀行或者哪怕地方商業(yè)銀行獲得一份工作。遼寧的私營(yíng)企業(yè)薪資不高。”

The north-east has also struggled to attract investors. It was the only region in China in which private fixed-asset investment fell from 2016-2017.

此外，東北地區(qū)還很難吸引投資者。這里是中國(guó)唯一一個(gè)在2016年至2017年私人固定資產(chǎn)投資出現(xiàn)下降的地區(qū)。

Ma Jiantang of the Chinese Academy of Governance told a recent government conference that many entrepreneurs believed “investment should not cross the Shanhai pass”, a section of the Great Wall of China that divides the north-east from the rest of the country.

國(guó)家行政學(xué)院(Chinese Academy of Governance)的馬建堂最近在一次政府會(huì)議上回應(yīng)了很多企業(yè)家認(rèn)為的“投資不過(guò)山海關(guān)”的問(wèn)題。山海關(guān)是中國(guó)萬(wàn)里長(zhǎng)城的其中一段，把中國(guó)東北部與其他地區(qū)分隔。

Zhang Lihua, director of tech company Changchun Boli, also acknowledges that the north-east is at a competitive disadvantage. “There’s a good foundation for growth here, if we can make reforms. But the southern provinces compete aggressively for talent and companies, and the north-east is some way behind.”

長(zhǎng)春博立電子科技公司董事張立華也承認(rèn)，東北處于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)劣勢(shì)。“如果我們能實(shí)施改革，這里有良好的發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)。但南方省份正大力爭(zhēng)奪人才和企業(yè)，東北有些落后。”

Lu Xiaomeng, assistant professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Jiao Tong University who grew up in the north-eastern city of Harbin, is confident private investment will slowly rise. But this can only happen if the power of the SOEs is curbed. 上海交通大學(xué)上海高級(jí)金融學(xué)院(Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance)助理教授魯小萌是在中國(guó)東北城市哈爾濱長(zhǎng)大的。她認(rèn)為，私人投資將緩慢增長(zhǎng)。但只有限制國(guó)有企業(yè)的影響力，這種情況才會(huì)發(fā)生。

“The problem of SOEs’ influence is a nationwide issue," she adds. “It’s just that SOEs dominate the north-eastern economy. My hope is the private sector can thrive.”

“國(guó)有企業(yè)影響力的問(wèn)題是一個(gè)全國(guó)性問(wèn)題，”她補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，“國(guó)有企業(yè)主宰著東北經(jīng)濟(jì)。我希望民營(yíng)企業(yè)能繁榮發(fā)展。”

Additional reporting by Xinning Liu and Yingzhi Yang 劉心寧和Yingzhi Yang補(bǔ)充報(bào)道