2月份中國制造業(yè)PMI降幅為六年來比較大

China’s official gauge of manufacturing activity for February suffered its largest drop since 2011, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown that left it near the zero-growth level.

2月份，中國官方衡量制造業(yè)活動的指數(shù)出現(xiàn)2011年以來最大幅度的下降，制造業(yè)活動的放緩幅度之大出乎人們的意料，其擴張近乎為零。

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics fell to 50.3, down a point from January and the largest fall in more than six years. The fall marked the gauge’s nearest brush with the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since August 2016.

中國國家統(tǒng)計局公布的制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)降至50.3%，比1月份低了1個百分點，降幅為6年多來最大。此次下降是該指數(shù)自2016年8月以來最接近50%枯榮線的一次。

A median forecast from economists polled by Reuters had predicted only a fractional slowdown: none of the 28 forecasts for February had pencilled in a reading below 51 for the gauge, which is based on a survey of larger and predominantly state-run companies.

路透社(Reuters)調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟學家給出的預(yù)測中值是，該指數(shù)只會小幅下降。在對2月份制造業(yè)PMI的28個預(yù)測當中，沒有一個認為該指數(shù)會低于51%。該指數(shù)是基于對大中型且主要為國有的企業(yè)的調(diào)查得出的。

China’s statistics bureau on Wednesday attributed the slowdown to the lunar new year holiday, when migrant workers return to their home villages and output typically dips. In 2017 the holiday stretched from the end of January through early February, while this year’s holiday fell entirely in February, making for an unfavourable comparison.

周三，中國國家統(tǒng)計局將此次下降歸因于春節(jié)假期，其間外出務(wù)工人員返鄉(xiāng)、產(chǎn)出一般都會下降。2017年的春節(jié)假期是從1月底到2月初，而今年的假期完全落在2月份，不利于比較。

However, the downward move was outsized for the usually incremental series, making it the sharpest fall since a 1.4 point drop in late 2011 that pushed the gauge into contractionary territory.

但對近來一般都在逐步上升的該指數(shù)來說，此次下降的幅度實在太大，降幅是自2011年底以來最大的。2011年底時該指數(shù)下降了1.4個百分點，降入榮枯線下方。

“The lower PMI readings for February may be partly due to Chinese new year, since seasonal adjustments may not fully iron out the impact in year-to-year shifts in the timing of the holiday,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. “But even if we account for such volatility by averaging across the first two months of the year, the data still point to a clear slowdown in early 2018.”

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級中國經(jīng)濟學家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示：“春節(jié)可能是2月份PMI讀數(shù)走低的部分原因，因為季節(jié)性調(diào)整可能無法完全熨平春節(jié)假期時間點的年度變化帶來的影響。但是，即使我們通過求今年頭兩個月的均值來計入這種波動，數(shù)據(jù)仍顯示出2018年開年出現(xiàn)明顯放緩。”

Betty Wang, senior China economist for ANZ, suggested authorities’ crackdown on heavy polluters “also played an important role in dampening the headline numbers on top of the holiday effect”. But she added that while the drive’s impact on manufacturing activity would probably last for another couple of months, it was unlikely to have an impact on policy direction.

澳新銀行(ANZ)高級中國經(jīng)濟學家王蕊(Betty Wang)表示，除了假期的影響，有關(guān)部門對嚴重污染企業(yè)的整頓也對推低PMI起到了重要作用。但她同時表示，雖然整頓舉措對制造業(yè)活動的影響可能還會再持續(xù)幾個月，但它不可能對政策方向產(chǎn)生影響。