2018年開局交易活躍令交易所振奮

The busiest January on global markets in many years is raising hopes among exchanges and market venues that 2018 will spark a long-awaited rebound in trading revenues.

全球市場上多年來最繁忙的1月份令各交易所和市場萌生期待，希望2018年將引發(fā)期盼已久的交易收入反彈。

Volatility on foreign exchange markets has spiked after comments from the US Treasury secretary about the weakness of the US dollar sent the greenback tumbling and volumes rising.

在美國財長發(fā)表了有關(guān)弱勢美元的言論、導(dǎo)致美元匯率大幅下跌和交易量上升后，匯市波動性驟升。

Investors have also seen the 10-year Treasury yield, which sets the cost of money for the world, rise its most in more than a year on fears that inflation may be returning. Stock markets have dipped recently after rising on data showing strong growth in many of the world’s biggest economies.

投資者還看到，為全球資金成本設(shè)定基準的10年期美國國債收益率，由于市場擔心通脹可能在卷土重來而出現(xiàn)一年多來最大攀升。股市在因為數(shù)據(jù)顯示全球多個最大經(jīng)濟體增長強勁而上漲后，近日有所回落。

Those signals have driven a sharp pick-up in volumes after several weak years across equities, futures, currencies and fixed income markets. Low interest rates and steady economic growth after the financial crisis had left many markets becalmed.

這些信號推動著交易量急劇回升，此前股票、期貨、外匯和固定收益市場經(jīng)歷了幾年的疲軟。金融危機過后的低利率和穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟增長使許多市場風平浪靜。

CME Group, the world’s largest futures exchange, last week reported an average daily volume of 19m contracts, up 18 per cent year on year and its second-highest monthly average daily volume ever.

全球最大的期貨交易所——芝加哥商品交易所集團(CME Group)上周平均日交易量為1900萬手，同比增長18%，并創(chuàng)下月度日均交易量第二高。

Deutsche Börse said the 34 per cent year-on-year increase in turnover on its cash markets was its highest January number since 2008. MarketAxess, the US corporate bond trading venue, reported record average daily volume for the month, up 22 per cent year on year.

德意志交易所(Deutsche Börse)表示，其現(xiàn)金市場交易量同比增長34%，是自2008年以來最高的1月數(shù)字。美國公司債券交易市場MarketAxess報告了創(chuàng)紀錄的1月日均成交量，同比增長22%。

“I think its an ‘early great indicator’,” said Richard Repetto, analyst at Sandler O’Neill in New York. “Not only have volumes in January showed strength, but more importantly, most volatility measures have increased as well. Barring a severe, prolonged pullback in the markets, which eventually would weigh on transaction activity, the volume outlook looks good right now.”

“我認為這是一個‘早期的大好指標’，”Sandler O’Neill 在紐約的分析師理查德•雷佩托(Richard Repetto)表示。“1月份不僅成交量顯示出強勁，更重要的是多數(shù)波動性指標也出現(xiàn)上升。除非市場上出現(xiàn)嚴重而長時間的回調(diào)，最終拖累交易活動，否則眼下的交易量前景看起來不錯。”

Yet many executives remain cautious after several lean years. Terry Duffy, CME chief executive, last week described 2017 as “certainly an unusual year. Virtually every asset class experienced reduced volatility”.

然而，在經(jīng)歷了幾年的艱辛之后，許多高管保持謹慎。芝加哥商品交易所首席執(zhí)行官特里•達菲(Terry Duffy)上周將2017年形容為“肯定是不尋常的一年。幾乎每一個資產(chǎn)類別都經(jīng)歷了波動性降低”。

The UK’s Nex Group reported double-digit growth for January in repo markets, which act as critical sources of short-term funding and collateral for financial institutions. It also runs one of the world’s biggest foreign exchange trading venues.

英國Nex Group報告1月份回購市場出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長;這類市場是金融機構(gòu)短期資金和抵押的重要來源。該集團還運營著世界上最大的外匯交易場所之一。

“It’s still too early to assume with any confidence that the prolonged and subdued conditions have come to an end — but I do keep hoping,” said Michael Spencer, chief executive of Nex. “I’m hopeful the FX markets are more generous to us this year than they have been in past years.”

“現(xiàn)在就信心滿滿地假設(shè)漫長的低迷狀況已經(jīng)結(jié)束還為時過早，但我繼續(xù)抱以期許，”Nex首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾•斯賓塞(Michael Spencer)表示。“我希望今年外匯市場對我們比過去幾年更加慷慨。”

Traders have also noted that despite the sharp increase in January trading activity, closely watched indicators measuring volatility in US equity and Treasury markets were still below long-term trends.

交易員們還指出，盡管1月份交易活動大幅增加，但受到密切關(guān)注的衡量美國股票和國債市場波動性的指標仍低于長期趨勢。

The Vix index, a benchmark measure of implied volatility on equity markets, has been trading below its long-term average for most of the past two years.

Vix指數(shù)是股市隱含波動率的基準指標;在過去兩年的大部分時間里，該指數(shù)一直低于其長期平均水平。

However the Vix jumped nearly 30 per cent on Friday to its highest level since November 2016. Cboe Global Markets, owner of the Vix indices, said Vix options volumes hit an all-time high of 4.3m contracts on Friday, surpassing the previous record by 39 per cent.

然而上周五Vix指數(shù)躍升近30%，達到自2016年11月以來的最高水平。Vix指數(shù)的所有者——芝加哥期權(quán)交易所全球市場(Cboe Global Markets)表示，Vix期權(quán)交易量上周五創(chuàng)下430萬份合約的歷史最高紀錄，比之前的紀錄高出39%。