中國(guó)央行研究人員認(rèn)為短期內(nèi)存在加息空間

Researchers at China’s central bank have agreed that higher interest rates could be appropriate in the near future thanks to improvements in industrial prices and enterprise profitability, according to state media.

中國(guó)官方媒體報(bào)道稱，中國(guó)央行的研究人員一致認(rèn)為，鑒于工業(yè)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)不斷提升，中國(guó)在不遠(yuǎn)的將來(lái)加息是適當(dāng)?shù)摹?/p>

State-run newspaper China Daily said on Monday that top researchers at the People’s Bank of China had recently agreed that higher rates would “help to squeeze asset bubbles and restrain debt expansion, as a tool to be used with broader oversight of financial activities.”

官方報(bào)紙《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》(China Daily)周一稱，中國(guó)央行高級(jí)研究人員近期一致認(rèn)為，加息“作為一種用來(lái)對(duì)金融活動(dòng)實(shí)施更廣泛監(jiān)管的手段，將有助于擠壓資產(chǎn)泡沫和抑制債務(wù)擴(kuò)張。”

The paper quoted Ji Min, deputy head of the bank’s research bureau, as saying over the weekend that there “is room for an increase in interest rates in the short term as industrial product prices and enterprises’ profitability have improved since last year”.

該報(bào)援引中國(guó)央行研究局副局長(zhǎng)紀(jì)敏上周末說(shuō)的話稱，“自去年來(lái)工業(yè)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)不斷提升，短期內(nèi)存在加息的空間”。

The state-run daily wrote that a possible hike in interest rates, “along with the key lever of cutting the overcapacity of industrial producers, would further improve producers’ investment returns by curbing debt expansion regardless of the costs of borrowing, according to the officials.”

該報(bào)寫道，“官員們稱，(一次可能的加息)輔以削減工業(yè)企業(yè)過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的關(guān)鍵手段，將抑制不顧借貸成本的債務(wù)擴(kuò)張，從而進(jìn)一步提升企業(yè)的投資回報(bào)”。

Yet China’s financial markets and corporations did not stomach the PBoC’s rate hikes as well as their US counterparts last year, according to Trinh Nguyen, Senior economist for emerging Asia at Natixis.

但法國(guó)外貿(mào)銀行(Natixis)新興亞洲高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阮純(Trinh Nguyen)表示，去年中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)和企業(yè)并沒有消化掉中國(guó)央行的加息以及美國(guó)的加息。

Ms Nguyen said in December that the Shanghai 3-month interbank lending rate had “shot up to reflect tighter liquidity and counter-party risks of banks.”

阮純?nèi)ツ?2月表示，3月期上海銀行間同業(yè)拆放利率(Shibor)“已經(jīng)躍升，反映出銀行流動(dòng)性趨緊和對(duì)手方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

“Chinese stock indices (both Shenzhen and Shanghai) have under-performed not just the US but also the Asia Pacific region due to tight monetary conditions – our Natixis Monetary Condition Index shows that China is amongst the tightest,” she wrote.

“中國(guó)(深市和滬市)股指的表現(xiàn)不但不如美國(guó)，也不如亞太地區(qū)，原因就在于貨幣狀況緊張——我們的Natixis貨幣狀況指數(shù)(Natixis Monetary Condition Index)顯示，中國(guó)屬于最緊張之列，”她寫道。

The PBoC last raised rates for its Medium-term Lending Facility and reverse repos by five basis points on December 14 following an overnight rise of 25 bps by the US Federal Reserve overnight.

中國(guó)央行上次上調(diào)中期借貸便利(Medium-term Lending Facility)和逆回購(gòu)利率是在去年12月14日。在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)前夜將隔夜利率上調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)后，中國(guó)央行在12月14日將上述利率調(diào)高了5個(gè)基點(diǎn)。