美國(guó)對(duì)朝動(dòng)武尚面臨后勤難題

Escalating US rhetoric towards North Korea this year has stoked fears of war but Donald Trump’s threats of “fire and fury” have yet to be matched by the logistical and military build-up that would almost certainly precede any strike.

今年美國(guó)對(duì)朝鮮言論的升級(jí)引起了人們對(duì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的恐懼，但唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“火與怒”威脅尚未得到后勤行動(dòng)與軍事集結(jié)的配合。美國(guó)在發(fā)動(dòng)任何打擊之前，幾乎肯定要進(jìn)行后勤行動(dòng)與軍事集結(jié)。

While the US could launch some kind of pinprick attack on an individual target without the need for huge firepower, experts say the Pentagon would have to prepare for the possibility of serious retaliation.

盡管美國(guó)可以在不需要大量火力的情況下對(duì)某個(gè)目標(biāo)發(fā)動(dòng)某種定點(diǎn)攻擊，但專家們表示，五角大樓(Pentagon)將不得不為可能的嚴(yán)厲報(bào)復(fù)做好準(zhǔn)備。

With more than 200,000 US citizens in South Korea and another 50,000 in Japan, Washington would almost certainly want to conduct an evacuation. But this would be a big logistical operation and could itself be the trigger for pre-emptive action by Kim Jong Un’s nuclear-armed regime.

由于韓國(guó)有20多萬(wàn)美國(guó)公民，日本還有5萬(wàn)美國(guó)公民，華盛頓方面幾乎肯定要撤離他們。但這將是一次大規(guī)模后勤行動(dòng)，本身就可能刺激擁核的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政權(quán)采取先發(fā)制人的行動(dòng)。

The logistical complexity serves as a reminder of why the US and its allies have long discounted the possibility of an attack — something that could lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives and widespread economic disruption

后勤行動(dòng)的復(fù)雜程度提醒了人們，為何美國(guó)及其盟友長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)并不考慮發(fā)動(dòng)攻擊的可能性——這可能導(dǎo)致數(shù)十萬(wàn)人喪生以及大范圍的經(jīng)濟(jì)破壞。

A huge complicating factor for the US is the difficultly in locating North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Even if the US knew where they were, the only way to destroy them without visible preparations would be a nuclear first strike, launched by stealth aircraft flying from the US mainland, argues one former US military officer who has worked in the region.

對(duì)美國(guó)而言，一個(gè)巨大的復(fù)雜因素是難以找到朝鮮的核武器。一位曾在該地區(qū)服役的美國(guó)軍官表示，即使美國(guó)知道它們?cè)谀睦?，沒(méi)有明顯準(zhǔn)備就能摧毀它們的唯一方式，將是由美國(guó)大陸起飛的隱形飛機(jī)發(fā)起第一波核攻擊。

Mr Blair, who has served as the head of the US intelligence community, said it was “inconceivable that the US would use nuclear weapons” to launch a pre-emptive strike. “It just would be such a Pandora’s box and would make us the first country in history to use nuclear weapons for coercive purposes since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which is absolutely the wrong signal to send.”

前美國(guó)國(guó)家情報(bào)總監(jiān)丹尼斯•布萊爾(Dennis Blair)表示，“美國(guó)將使用核武器實(shí)施一次先發(fā)制人的打擊，這是不可想象的。”他說(shuō)：“這將成為潘多拉的盒子，將讓我們成為歷史上自廣島和長(zhǎng)崎以來(lái)第一個(gè)為達(dá)成強(qiáng)制目而使用核武器的國(guó)家。這絕對(duì)會(huì)發(fā)出錯(cuò)誤信號(hào)。”

The US would be more likely to look at other options, from precision strikes on weapons facilities to a wider assault aimed at regime change.

美國(guó)將更有可能考慮其他選項(xiàng)——從對(duì)武器設(shè)施的精確打擊到旨在改變朝鮮政權(quán)的更廣泛攻擊。

Dennis Wilder, a former senior CIA analyst and Asia adviser to George W Bush, believes the US could, for example, attempt to destroy the facility near Pyongyang where North Korea fuelled and stored the recently fired Hwasong 15 intercontinental ballistic missile.

例如，曾任美國(guó)中情局(CIA)前高級(jí)分析師、小布什(George W Bush)亞洲事務(wù)顧問(wèn)的韋德寧(Dennis Wilder)認(rèn)為，美國(guó)可能會(huì)試圖摧毀平壤附近的一處設(shè)施——朝鮮不久前試射的“火星-15”(Hwasong 15)型洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈曾存放在該設(shè)施，并在那里添加燃料。

The problem for Washington, however, is that there is no guarantee that North Korea would not respond with a barrage of artillery fire on Seoul. As such, visible preparations — both offensive and defensive — would precede any strike, according to military experts.

然而，美國(guó)的問(wèn)題在于無(wú)法保證朝鮮不會(huì)做出回應(yīng)、對(duì)首爾進(jìn)行一系列炮火攻擊。同樣，軍事專家們表示，在發(fā)動(dòng)任何攻擊之前，美國(guó)都會(huì)進(jìn)行明顯的準(zhǔn)備(無(wú)論攻擊性的還是防御性的)。

According to operational plans for war with North Korea, nearly 700,000 US soldiers would be mobilised alongside 160 ships, 1,600 aircraft and about 2.7m South Korean reservists, said Kim Yeol-soo, head of security at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs. Strategic assets, such as aircraft carriers, F-22 jets and B1-B bombers, would also be deployed.

韓國(guó)軍事問(wèn)題研究院(Korea Institute for Military Affairs)安全問(wèn)題研究主管Kim Yeol-soo表示，根據(jù)對(duì)朝作戰(zhàn)計(jì)劃，除了160艘艦船、1600架飛機(jī)和大約270萬(wàn)名韓國(guó)預(yù)備役軍人，還將動(dòng)員將近70萬(wàn)美國(guó)士兵。美國(guó)也將部署航空母艦、F-22戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)和B1-B轟炸機(jī)等戰(zhàn)略性裝備。

Such assets are occasionally used in training exercises on the peninsula, which North Korea bitterly criticises as precursors to an invasion. When F-22 Raptor jets participated in air drills this month, Pyongyang said the “outbreak of war” had become an “established fact”.

這類裝備有時(shí)會(huì)在針對(duì)朝鮮半島的訓(xùn)練演習(xí)中使用，朝鮮強(qiáng)烈批評(píng)此舉是侵略的前奏。當(dāng)F-22“猛禽”戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)參加本月的空軍演練時(shí)，朝鮮表示，“戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的爆發(fā)”已成為一條“既定事實(shí)”。