Lex專欄：閱文集團的估值

One day before the flotation of China Literature, the ebook business of Tencent, Lex said that “optimism is required to imagine a happy ending”. It was clearly in ample supply. To our chagrin, the shares more than doubled within a week.

騰訊(Tencent)電子書業(yè)務(wù)子公司閱文集團(China Literature)上市前一天，本專欄稱“要想象一個美好的結(jié)局是需要樂觀的”。顯然，樂觀情緒的供應(yīng)充足得很。令我們懊惱的是，該股的股價在一周內(nèi)翻了一倍多。

Although the stock is now “only” 49 per cent above the offer price, it still looks expensive given the company’s profit prospects. Few will care. The bullishness reflects enthusiasm for Hong Kong-listed equities among mainland investors.

盡管當(dāng)前股價“僅比”發(fā)行價高出49%，但從該公司的盈利前景看，它仍然看起來昂貴。沒什么人會關(guān)心這一點?？礉q情緒反映了內(nèi)地投資者對香港上市股票的熱情。

Lex argued against a high valuation for China Literature for two reasons: Firstly, operations and content are pricey to acquire and have cost structures more akin to old-economy newspapers than social media websites. Secondly, content is mostly distributed through the apps of controlling shareholder Tencent. Minority shareholders will struggle to defend the business against its parent’s ability to extract a rent for this.

出于兩個原因，本專欄認為閱文集團的估值不應(yīng)這么高：首先，運營以及購買內(nèi)容的成本高昂，同時該公司的成本結(jié)構(gòu)更像舊經(jīng)濟的報紙，而不像社交媒體網(wǎng)站。其次，內(nèi)容主要通過控股股東騰訊的app分發(fā)。針對母公司對此提取“租金”的能力，少數(shù)股股東將難以捍衛(wèi)該企業(yè)。

As is usual practice in China, only a small part of the subsidiary was sold. This has left pre-float shareholders toasting large paper profits; with the shares at HK$81 apiece, managers owning 14 per cent of the company are sitting on stock worth $1.3bn.

按照中國的通常做法，這家子公司只有一小部分被出售。這使得上市前的股東們坐享巨額紙面利潤：每股81港元的股價意味著，擁有公司14%股權(quán)的經(jīng)理人擁有價值13億美元的股份。

Individual investors oversubscribed the issue 625 times. Mainland investors are used to this game. Regulators there allow a maximum initial valuation of 23 times earnings, much less than the average ratio achieved by shares in secondary trading. This almost guarantees gains for those who manage to get an initial allocation; China Literature’s price/earnings ratio at the point of the initial public offering exceeded 200.

散戶投資者對此次發(fā)行超額認購625倍。內(nèi)地投資者習(xí)慣于這種游戲。那里的監(jiān)管機構(gòu)允許最高23倍的發(fā)行市盈率，遠低于二級交易達到的平均市盈率。這意味著那些設(shè)法獲得初始股票分配的人幾乎穩(wěn)賺不賠：閱文集團在首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)時的市盈率超過200倍。

Those investors are now able to participate in Hong Kong’s stock market via the Connect links to and from the exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Volumes from those markets to Hong Kong have increased sixfold since the start of the year, exacerbating volatility in a market that has always contained a substantial speculative element.

這些投資者現(xiàn)在可以通過滬港通和深港通進入香港股市。自2017年初以來，來自這兩個機制的資金在香港的交易量增長了六倍，加劇了這個一直帶有較大投機因素的市場的波動性。