中國大舉推進數(shù)字化

From a consumer point of view, China is already a global leader but its digitisation of industries still lags behind the US. However, China is catching up rapidly and another powerful wave of digitisation in businesses is starting to sweep through the economy, promising creative destruction in inefficient sectors on a grand scale.

從消費者的角度來看，中國已是全球領(lǐng)導者，但是其產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)字化程度仍落后于美國。然而，中國正在迅速趕上，另一場強勁的數(shù)字化浪潮開始在整個經(jīng)濟中興起，有望大規(guī)模顛覆許多效率低下的行業(yè)。

China is well established as a digital player in consumer-facing industries with the largest ecommerce market in the world, accounting for over 40 per cent of global ecommerce transactions. Nevertheless, huge upside potential remains. China has a huge, relatively young home consumer market — and Chinese consumers are eager and willing to embrace all things digital.

在面向消費者的行業(yè)，中國的數(shù)字化已很成熟，擁有全球最大的電子商務(wù)市場，電子商務(wù)交易量占到全球的40%以上。不過，中國仍有巨大的上升空間。中國擁有龐大而相對年輕的家庭消費市場——中國消費者渴望并樂于在一切領(lǐng)域擁抱數(shù)字化。

Take just one example: connected cars. A McKinsey Survey of more than 3,000 respondents in China, Germany, and the United States found that 60 per cent of Chinese respondents would switch car manufacturers to obtain connectivity features, compared with only 20 per cent in Germany.

就舉一個例子：聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車(connected-car)。麥肯錫(McKinsey)針對中國、德國和美國的3000位受訪者的一份調(diào)查報告發(fā)現(xiàn)，60%的中國人愿意為獲得聯(lián)網(wǎng)功能而嘗試新的汽車制造商，德國人的這個比例僅為20%。

Many sectors in China are ripe for digital disruption because they are fragmented and inefficient. In freight, for instance, about 95 per cent of China’s estimated 8m registered trucking companies are individuals or small companies. Less than 1 per cent of companies have 50 trucks or more in their fleets. A lack of transparent, real-time information on routing means that China’s average empty running ratio in road transport is about 40 per cent, compared with 10 to 15 per cent on average in Germany and the United States.

在中國的許多部門，數(shù)字化顛覆的時機已成熟，因為這些行業(yè)處于分散和低效的狀態(tài)。例如，在貨運方面，中國800萬注冊貨運公司約有95%是個人或小公司。擁有50輛以上卡車的公司不到1%。缺乏透明、實時的路線信息意味著，中國公路運輸?shù)钠骄蛰d率約為40%，而德國和美國的這個數(shù)字為10%至15%。

China may lead the world on ecommerce but its express delivery industry has not been up to the task. About one-quarter of intercity express delivery did not meet delivery targets. Faced with demands for more efficiency and speed from China’s ecommerce giants, the industry is embracing digital technologies. Alibaba backed a new big-data platform connected to many express-delivery companies that can process 9tn lines of information per day and mobilise 1.7m drivers. The power of such digital approaches is now evident: on China’s Singles Day shopping bonanza, the number of days it takes to deliver 100m packages has fallen from nine in 2013 to only three-and-a half in 2016.

中國的電子商務(wù)也許領(lǐng)先世界，但是快遞業(yè)卻沒有跟上。大約四分之一的城際快遞沒有完成交付目標。面對來自中國電商巨頭的提高效率和速度的需求，該行業(yè)正在擁抱數(shù)字技術(shù)。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)入股了一個把許多家快遞公司聯(lián)接在一起的新的大數(shù)據(jù)平臺，每天可以處理9萬億行信息，調(diào)配170萬名司機。這種數(shù)字化手段的威力現(xiàn)在已顯露出來：在中國的單身節(jié)(Singles Day)購物狂歡中，交付1億個包裹所需天數(shù)從2013年的9天縮短到了2016年的僅3.5天。

Such huge efficiency gains can be achieved through digital means across industries. New McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) research finds that digitisation can potentially shift (and create) 10 to 45 per cent of industry revenue pools in China by 2030, and, in the process, vault China’s economy to new levels of global competitiveness.

如此巨大的效率提升可以通過各行各業(yè)的數(shù)字手段來實現(xiàn)。麥肯錫全球研究院(MGI)的最新研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，到2030年，數(shù)字化有潛力改變(和創(chuàng)造)中國10%到45%的產(chǎn)業(yè)收入，并在此過程中把中國經(jīng)濟的全球競爭力提升到新水平。

Potentially the biggest transformation could be in health care. China has made great strides since reform of the system in 2009, but it still faces considerable challenges. There is an imbalance in provision. Urban residents have two to three times better access to health-care professionals than those living in rural areas, and 51 per cent of China’s top 100 hospitals are in just three cities: Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. In such a vast country as China, the potential for internet of things and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled health care — delivered remotely and digitally — is enormous. The government’s Internet Plus Health Care plan published early this year discussed giving patients access to their own medical data through mobile terminals.

潛在的最大轉(zhuǎn)變可能發(fā)生在醫(yī)療領(lǐng)域。自2009年醫(yī)療體制改革以來，中國已經(jīng)取得長足的進步，但仍面臨相當大的挑戰(zhàn)。醫(yī)療服務(wù)供給存在不平衡。城市居民人均醫(yī)療人員數(shù)量是農(nóng)村居民的兩到三倍，中國最好的100家醫(yī)院有51%位于北京、廣州和上海這三座城市。在中國這樣一個幅員遼闊的國家，搭載物聯(lián)網(wǎng)和人工智能(AI)技術(shù)的遠程、數(shù)字化醫(yī)療擁有巨大潛力。政府今年初發(fā)布的“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+醫(yī)療”計劃討論了讓病人能夠通過移動終端訪問他們自己的醫(yī)療數(shù)據(jù)。

China’s health care system today has relatively low levels of digitisation. In 2015, 29 per cent of hospitals in China had still not installed electronic medical records systems. In 2014, more than half of Chinese hospitals had not established systems for the exchange of clinical data, compared with only 6 per cent in the United States. The government has recognised that the system is ripe for a big-data revolution, introducing for the first time regulations on how big data in the health-care sectors are collected, stored and used.

當前中國醫(yī)療體系的數(shù)字化水平相對較低。2015年，中國29%的醫(yī)院尚未安裝電子病歷系統(tǒng)。2014年，中國逾一半的醫(yī)院還未建立臨床數(shù)據(jù)交換系統(tǒng)，而美國的這個比例僅為6%。中國政府已認識到，在醫(yī)療體系中掀起大數(shù)據(jù)革命的時機已成熟，并首次出臺了有關(guān)在醫(yī)療領(lǐng)域如何收集、存儲和使用大數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)規(guī)定。

China’s internet giants are moving into health-care big data. Baidu is building Baidu Cloud with the government of Beijing, which will monitor data from wearables and devices. Alibaba has launched an e-health app called Future Hospital that connects about 200 hospitals in more than 20 provinces and 40 cities across the country; the app offers information on what hospitals have beds, and the means to make appointments, payments, and access medical records.

中國的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭正在進軍醫(yī)療大數(shù)據(jù)領(lǐng)域。百度(Baidu)正在與北京市政府合作打造健康云，將監(jiān)測來自可穿戴設(shè)備和其他智能健康設(shè)備的數(shù)據(jù)。阿里巴巴推出了名為“未來醫(yī)院”的電子醫(yī)療服務(wù)，它連接至全國20多個省的40個城市的約200家醫(yī)院;該服務(wù)提供醫(yī)院空余床位信息，患者還可通過該服務(wù)預(yù)約掛號、繳費和查看病歷。

Such innovations offer just a tiny snapshot of China’s dynamic, expanding digital ecosystem whose growth has been, to a large extent, propelled by the largest internet players.

此類創(chuàng)新為我們一窺中國充滿活力、不斷擴張的數(shù)字生態(tài)系統(tǒng)提供了一個狹窄的窗口。這個系統(tǒng)的增長，在很大程度上源自那些互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭的推動。

Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent provided 42 per cent of all venture capital investment in China last year, and one in five top Chinese start-ups were founded by one of the three or their alumni (an additional 30 per cent of them receive funding from these three).

去年，百度、阿里巴巴和騰訊(Tencent)占據(jù)了中國風險投資總額的42%，中國頂級創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)有五分之一是由這三家企業(yè)之一或它們的前員工創(chuàng)立的(另有30%的頂級創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)得到了這三家企業(yè)的注資)。

Digital players also benefit from the fact that they enjoy such close links to hardware manufacturers. A sign of changing times is the fact that Shenzhen used to be known as the world center for shanzhai, or copycat products; now the city is known as China’s open innovation center. The city is home to drone manufacturer DJI, which commands more than 70 per cent of the global consumer drone market, HAX, a hardware-focused incubator that brings entrepreneurs from around the world for rapid prototyping and commercialisation, and Shenzhen Capital Group whose portfolio of more than 600 companies is increasingly internet-focused.

數(shù)字玩家們也受益于如下事實：它們與硬件制造商之間聯(lián)系密切。反映當今時代瞬息萬變的一個標志是：曾經(jīng)被稱為世界山寨中心的深圳，現(xiàn)在被稱為中國的開放式創(chuàng)新中心。深圳是如下這幾家公司的所在地：無人機制造商大疆創(chuàng)新科技(DJI)，擁有全球消費無人機市場70%以上的份額;HAX加速器，一家專注于硬件領(lǐng)域的孵化器，為世界各地的企業(yè)家提供快速原型設(shè)計和商品化服務(wù);深創(chuàng)投(Shenzhen Capital Group)，已投資超過600家公司，并且越來越專注于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)領(lǐng)域的業(yè)務(wù)。

The government is backing digital strongly. It is explicitly targeting an AI applications market of more than Rmb100bn ($15bn) value by next year, is mobilising resources to invest $180bn on building China’s 5G mobile network over the next seven years and is supporting the development of quantum technology.

政府正在大力支持數(shù)字化。它明確提出了到2020年人工智能核心產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模超過1500億元人民幣的目標，并將調(diào)動資源實現(xiàn)未來七年投資1800億美元興建中國的5G移動網(wǎng)絡(luò)，還將支持量子技術(shù)的發(fā)展。

This combination of enthusiastic consumers, a robust ecosystem and a supportive government has already guaranteed China increasing prominence on the global digital landscape. China’s outbound venture capital totalled $38bn in 2014-16, up from just $6bn in 2011-13, about three-quarters of which is pouring into digital related sectors. China is already in the global top three for venture-capital investment in virtual reality, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, robotics, drones and AI.

熱情的消費者、強大的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)加上政府的大力支持，共同保證了中國在全球數(shù)字領(lǐng)域占據(jù)日益突出的地位。從2014年到2016年，中國投向海外的風險資本總額達到380億美元——高于2011年至2013年的60億美元——其中約四分之三的資金投入了數(shù)字相關(guān)領(lǐng)域。中國在虛擬現(xiàn)實(VR)、自動駕駛汽車、3D打印、機器人、無人機和人工智能方面的風險投資金額已進入全球三甲。

Strength at home is the anchor to China’s digital globalisation — and there is much more to come.

中國自身的實力支撐其在數(shù)字領(lǐng)域方面走向全球——未來還會有更多行動。

Jonathan Woetzel is a senior partner of McKinsey & Company and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute based in Shanghai.

華強森(Jonathan Woetzel)為麥肯錫(McKinsey)高級合伙人、駐上海的麥肯錫全球研究院院長