美聯(lián)儲保持利率不變

The Federal Reserve steered a cautious path towards a further interest rate increase as soon as next month, as Janet Yellen spends what could be her final months as Fed chair balancing evidence of a resilient economy against doggedly weak inflation.

美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)向著下月就進(jìn)一步加息謹(jǐn)慎邁步。珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)在可能是她擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲主席的最后幾個月期間權(quán)衡強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與通脹持續(xù)偏弱的證據(jù)。

With Donald Trump expected to announce his nominee for Fed chair on Thursday, the central bank kept the key rate at 1 to 1.25 per cent at the end of the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest two-day meeting. The Fed continued to signal that “gradual” rate rises lie ahead, even if it did not offer any explicit indications as to when the next move will come.

在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)預(yù)計將在周四宣布他的美聯(lián)儲主席提名人選前夕，美國央行在聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)最近一次兩天會議結(jié)束之際將關(guān)鍵利率保持在1%至1.25%的區(qū)間。美聯(lián)儲繼續(xù)發(fā)出信號表明，未來會有“逐漸”加息，即便它沒有明確說明下一次何時動手。

While high petrol prices associated with the recent hurricanes had boosted some prices, “inflation for items other than food and energy remained soft,” the central bank said. On the upside, it noted that the labour market had continued to improve and “economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions.”

美國央行表示，雖然近期與颶風(fēng)有關(guān)的汽油價格高企導(dǎo)致了一些價格上漲，但“食品和能源以外的其他物品的通脹依然疲軟”。在積極的方面，它指出，勞動力市場持續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)，同時“盡管颶風(fēng)造成破壞，但經(jīng)濟(jì)活動以穩(wěn)健速度上升”。

Investors have been expecting a further quarter-point rate rise at the Fed’s final meeting of the year on December 12-13, but the direction of US monetary policy beyond that is about to be cast into a period of further uncertainty as the president considers installing a new Fed chair following the end of Ms Yellen’s first term in early February.

投資者一直預(yù)計，美聯(lián)儲將在12月12日至13日舉行的今年最后一次會議上進(jìn)一步加息四分之一點(diǎn)，但是美國貨幣政策在那之后的走向?qū)⑾萑胍欢尾淮_定時期，因為總統(tǒng)考慮在耶倫在2月初結(jié)束首個任期后任命一位新的美聯(lián)儲主席。

At a press briefing earlier on Tuesday, President Trump said Janet Yellen was “excellent”, but did not say whether she would be renewed in her position as Fed chair when the term expires in February.

在周二早些時候舉行的記者會上，特朗普總統(tǒng)稱珍妮特•耶倫“優(yōu)秀”，但沒有說在她的任期到2月份屆滿時，她是否將繼續(xù)擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲主席。

Asked if Yellen was his choice to keep leading the Fed, Trump said: “I didn’t say that. I think she’s excellent.”

在被問及耶倫是不是他選中的美聯(lián)儲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者時，特朗普說道：“我沒有那么說。我認(rèn)為她很優(yōu)秀。”

Administration officials expect Mr Trump to nominate Jay Powell, one of the Fed’s current governors, to take over the helm of the US central bank, although it remains possible that the president will change his mind at the last minute. Mr Powell would represent the continuity candidate for the Fed’s top job, given he hewed closely to Ms Yellen’s monetary policy approach in recent years.

特朗普政府的官員們預(yù)期，總統(tǒng)將提名美聯(lián)儲現(xiàn)任理事之一杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)執(zhí)掌美國央行，盡管特朗普仍有可能在最后一刻改變主意。考慮到鮑威爾近年密切附和耶倫的貨幣政策姿態(tài)，他被提名為美聯(lián)儲主席將最有希望保持政策連續(xù)性。

The White House has suggested a decision on the Fed chair could come on Thursday. The expected change comes as a near-decade of loose monetary policy helps power a vigorous economic recovery — but one that is also coupled with surprisingly low inflation.

白宮暗示，有關(guān)美聯(lián)儲主席人選的決定可能在周四宣布。美國央行高層人事變動之際，近10年的寬松貨幣政策幫助推動了強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，但也伴隨著低得讓人意外的通脹。

Ms Yellen has been presiding over a fierce debate within the Fed on how to reconcile the conflicting trends in the recovery. Unemployment has dropped to just 4.2 per cent despite the economic damage done by the recent hurricanes, and the US has now seen two straight quarters of roughly 3 per cent annualised growth. The global backdrop has become increasingly sunny.

在耶倫領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美聯(lián)儲內(nèi)部圍繞如何解釋此輪復(fù)蘇中相互矛盾的趨勢展開激烈辯論。盡管近期幾場颶風(fēng)造成經(jīng)濟(jì)破壞，但失業(yè)率已降至4.2%，而美國已連續(xù)兩個季度錄得大約3%的年化增長率。全球大背景變得越來越光明。

Yet at the same time the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, excluding food and energy, was just 1.3 per cent in September, following months of disappointing readings that have fostered concerns among some policymakers that entrenched factors are depressing prices following a half decade of sub-target price growth. The Fed stuck to its guns in expecting that inflation should stabilise around its 2 per cent objective in the medium-term. But it also noted that both its favoured inflation measures are running below target.

然而，與此同時，美聯(lián)儲重視的通脹指標(biāo)(剔除食品和能源)9月僅為1.3%，此前幾個月的數(shù)據(jù)也一直令人失望，這使一些政策制定者擔(dān)憂，價格上漲低于目標(biāo)水平已有五年的情況說明，有一些根深蒂固的因素在抑制價格。美聯(lián)儲堅持其預(yù)測，即中期而言通脹將在2%的目標(biāo)水平上下企穩(wěn)。但它也指出，它重視的兩個通脹指標(biāo)都低于目標(biāo)水平。

After the Tuesday statement, US government bond prices held on to their rally, with yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note staying below the 2.4 per cent mark at 2.3649 per cent.

周二聲明后，美國國債保持價格漲幅，基準(zhǔn)的10年國債收益率維持在低于2.4%的水平，為2.3649%。

Stocks remained a mixed bag. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added to their slight gains to trade up 0.2 per cent at 2,580.34 and 23,424.89 respectively. The Nasdaq Composite is at 6,712.31 after trimming its losses from 0.4 per cent to 0.2 per cent. The dollar, as measured by the DXY index, remained 0.1 per cent higher for the day.

股市有漲有跌。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)和道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)(Dow Jones Industrial Average)延續(xù)微幅漲勢，分別上漲0.2%，至2580.34點(diǎn)和23424.89點(diǎn)。納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)(Nasdaq Composite)的跌幅從0.4%縮小至0.2%，至6712.31點(diǎn)。按照DXY美元指數(shù)衡量，美元匯率保持0.1%的當(dāng)日漲幅。

At the Fed’s September meeting many policymakers said they thought another rate rise would be needed later in the year, yet views were divided. Some officials insisted they wanted to see firmer evidence that inflation is heading back to the Fed’s 2 per cent target.

在美聯(lián)儲9月會議上，多名政策制定者曾表示，他們認(rèn)為今年晚些時候還需要加息一次，但各方意見分歧。一些官員堅持認(rèn)為，他們希望看到更為有力的證據(jù)表明，通脹正在趨近美聯(lián)儲的2%目標(biāo)。

The Federal Reserve put one key element of its stimulus programme into reverse at the September meeting as it announced the gradual reduction of a balance sheet swelled to $4.5tn by quantitative easing — a well-telegraphed move that has not jolted markets.

美聯(lián)儲在9月會議上逆轉(zhuǎn)其刺激計劃的一個關(guān)鍵要素，宣布將逐漸縮小因量化寬松而膨脹至4.5萬億美元的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表;這一事先充分通報的舉動沒有引發(fā)市場驚慌。

However Ms Yellen has suggested the quantitative easing programme could well be needed when the US hits its next downturn — even if it is milder than the last one. That is because the Fed is not expecting to raise rates very far — perhaps to less than 3 per cent — leaving it with little rate-cutting firepower when the next recession happens.

不過，耶倫已暗示，當(dāng)美國經(jīng)歷下一場低迷時(即便其程度比上一次更輕微)，很有可能再次需要量化寬松。那是因為美聯(lián)儲并不預(yù)計會大幅提高利率(此輪加息也許會在不到3%的某個水平收手)，因而在陷入下一場經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的時候，不會有很大降息空間。

Additional reporting by Pan Yuk

玉品琨(Pan Yuk)補(bǔ)充報道