FT社評(píng)：歐洲央行成功把握平衡

If it were done when ’tis done, ’twere well it were done slowly, with no firm commitment to an end date, and with the clear promise that it will swiftly be reversed if necessary.

如果要結(jié)束量化寬松，還是慢慢來(lái)吧，不要設(shè)定具體的量化寬松終止日期，同時(shí)明確承諾必要時(shí)迅速逆轉(zhuǎn)進(jìn)程。

The European Central Bank, as predicted by most investors, yesterday announced that it would start scaling back monetary stimulus by reducing from €60bn to €30bn its purchases of assets under the quantitative easing programme it began in 2015.

和大多數(shù)投資者預(yù)料的一樣，歐洲央行(ECB)昨日宣布將縮減貨幣刺激措施，將其始于2015年的量化寬松計(jì)劃下的資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模從600億歐元降至300億歐元。

However clearly it has been signalled, the move to withdraw stimulus may yet turn out to be premature. In that context, the ECB was wise also to say that the buying programme is open-ended and to confirm that, even when it is finished, the bank will wait another good while before raising interest rates. In the months ahead, Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, must continue to underline that the bank will make up its mind on future asset purchases based on incoming economic data, not an end date planned and announced in advance.

不論歐洲央行已發(fā)出多么明確的信號(hào)，撤銷刺激措施可能還為時(shí)過(guò)早。在這種情況下，歐洲央行也很明智地表示，購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃的期限是開(kāi)放的，并確認(rèn)即便購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃結(jié)束了，歐洲央行也會(huì)再等一段時(shí)間才加息。在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)必須強(qiáng)調(diào)，歐洲央行將根據(jù)未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)決定將來(lái)的資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)，而不是提前計(jì)劃并宣布一個(gè)終止日期。

One thing should be made absolutely clear. Defying ill-informed warnings of high inflation, a collapsing currency and financial market volatility, the ECB has stuck to QE and it has served the eurozone economy well.

有一件事必須說(shuō)清楚。歐洲央行無(wú)視了那些關(guān)于高通脹、歐元暴跌、以及金融市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的依據(jù)不足的警告，一直堅(jiān)持量化寬松的政策，并且讓歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)受益匪淺。

Growth is set to pick up to rates not seen since before the global financial meltdown. Asset purchases and other unorthodox interventions have helped recoveries in peripheral countries such as Spain and Portugal that suffered during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The risk of corrosive deflation has sharply reduced. The euro, if anything, is a little too strong for comfort.

經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將回升至自全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái)的最高水平。資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)及其他非常規(guī)干預(yù)措施已幫助外圍國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，如西班牙和葡萄牙，這些國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)在歐元區(qū)主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)期間曾遭到嚴(yán)重沖擊。破壞性通貨緊縮的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已大大降低。歐元若說(shuō)有什么不足的話，就是有些過(guò)于強(qiáng)勢(shì)，令人擔(dān)憂。

If QE were solely a one-off insurance policy against the extraordinary circumstances of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the risk of damaging deflation, the time would evidently now be right to withdraw it. In practice it is not as simple as that. With inflation still well below the ECB’s target despite years of growth, the world has changed from the days before the financial crisis. No one can be sure how far the eurozone economy presently is from full capacity. The idea that monetary policy can be normalised, without anyone having a good idea what constitutes the new normal, is a risky one.

倘若量化寬松僅僅是針對(duì)歐元區(qū)主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的非常情況及破壞性通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一次性保險(xiǎn)措施，那現(xiàn)在顯然是撤銷量化寬松的正確時(shí)機(jī)。而事實(shí)上卻并沒(méi)有那么簡(jiǎn)單。盡管歷經(jīng)多年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，通貨膨脹率仍遠(yuǎn)低于歐洲央行的目標(biāo)，和金融危機(jī)前的日子相比，世界已經(jīng)改變。沒(méi)人能確定歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)目前距離全產(chǎn)能運(yùn)行狀態(tài)還有多遠(yuǎn)。在任何人都不確定新常態(tài)是什么的前提下，認(rèn)為貨幣政策可以恢復(fù)正常化，是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。

As has happened all along, Mr Draghi has faced internal pressure to scale back QE from board members who have never been comfortable with the programme. Yesterday’s announcement was a good compromise. As a sop to the hawks, the ECB halved its asset-purchase programme. But by committing to buy bonds until at least September next year, and to refrain from raising interest rates “well past the horizon” of QE, the bank in effect promised that the first rate rise will not come until some way into 2019 at the earliest.

德拉吉一如既往地面臨著來(lái)自董事會(huì)的內(nèi)部壓力，一些成員一直以來(lái)都對(duì)量化寬松計(jì)劃不滿，他們要求縮減量化寬松規(guī)模。昨天的聲明是一個(gè)良好的折中之舉。作為安撫鷹派的一種手段，歐洲央行將資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模減半。但通過(guò)承諾繼續(xù)購(gòu)買(mǎi)債券到至少明年9月，并將在量化寬松結(jié)束后很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間都不會(huì)加息，歐洲央行實(shí)際上承諾，第一輪加息最早要到2019年才會(huì)到來(lái)。

It may well be that the programmes of QE pioneered by the US Federal Reserve and followed by the Bank of England, the ECB and the Bank of Japan turn out in retrospect to be one-time inoculations against their economies sliding into depression. But it is also quite possible, in a world of low growth and low inflation, that they are stimulative injections to which policymakers have repeated recourse.

由美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)率先推出，隨后英國(guó)央行(BOE)、歐洲央行與日本央行(BOJ)紛紛效法的量化寬松計(jì)劃，將來(lái)回想起來(lái)也許是這些國(guó)家防止經(jīng)濟(jì)滑向蕭條的一次性防范舉措。但也很有可能的是，在低增長(zhǎng)與低通脹的全球背景下，它們是政策制定者們反復(fù)依賴的刺激性措施。

Mr Draghi, like the Fed’s Ben Bernanke before him, deserves great credit. He first made the intellectual case for unorthodox monetary policy intervention and then implemented it by manoeuvring his way through the tricky politics of the eurozone, facing down critics inside both the ECB and some of the EU finance ministries.

和前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)一樣，德拉吉值得高度贊揚(yáng)。他先是為非正統(tǒng)貨幣政策干預(yù)找到了理智的依據(jù)，之后又在歐元區(qū)棘手的政治中全力斡旋，使得這些政策得以實(shí)施，并成功鎮(zhèn)住了歐洲央行內(nèi)部以及歐盟部分國(guó)家財(cái)長(zhǎng)的批評(píng)之聲。

The announcement yesterday showed both the fruits of Mr Draghi’s efforts and his skill in leaving the bank room to keep monetary policy appropriately loose for years to come.

昨天的聲明既顯示了德拉吉努力的成果，也展示出他的技巧——給歐洲央行留下了在未來(lái)幾年保持貨幣政策適當(dāng)寬松的余地。