Lex專欄：亞洲對沖基金新發(fā)數(shù)量創(chuàng)新低并非壞事

Hedge funds often launch when markets are high, like butterflies hatching on a warm day. But despite buoyant stocks, Asia has produced the smallest number of new openings in the year to date for 17 years, according to data from Eurekahedge.

對沖基金經(jīng)常在市場處于高位時(shí)上市，就像蝴蝶在溫暖的日子里孵化一樣。盡管股市上漲，但Eurekahedge的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，亞洲今年新發(fā)行的對沖基金數(shù)量創(chuàng)下17年來的新低。

It is not for want of investors: asset inflows to established funds were stronger than at any time since 2013. A different kind of risk aversion appears to be at play: the fear that startups will not match returns from old stagers.

這并非因?yàn)槿鄙偻顿Y者：自2013年以來，現(xiàn)有基金的資產(chǎn)流入比以往任何時(shí)候都更加強(qiáng)勁。一種不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避心理似乎正在發(fā)揮作用：人們擔(dān)心初創(chuàng)基金的投資回報(bào)比不上老牌基金。

Chinese funds returned 22 per cent this year to date, according to an index compiled by Eurekahedge. That was five times equivalent US returns. A rally in Chinese technology stocks was an important reason for this — MSCI’s China Technology benchmark has returned 80 per cent since January. A weaker dollar also tends to boost emerging market assets.

Eurekahedge編制的一個(gè)指數(shù)顯示，今年迄今中國基金的投資回報(bào)率為22%，這是美國基金回報(bào)率的五倍。中國科技股的漲勢是其中一個(gè)重要原因——自今年1月以來，MSCI中國科技股指數(shù)的回報(bào)率已達(dá)到80%。美元走弱也提振了新興市場的資產(chǎn)。

Three quarters of funds in Asia manage less than $100m. This little league suffers as investors have become demanding in allocating funds. They want a performance track record, but increasingly see large funds as complacent and expensive. Globally, the mid tier, with assets of $100m-$500m, has benefitted most. Net inflows amounted to $26.4bn. A higher ratio to start-of-year assets than for any other category — except sub-$20m funds.

亞洲有四分之三的基金規(guī)模不到1億美元。隨著投資者在資金分配上的要求變高，這種小規(guī)模帶來不利。投資者想要一個(gè)業(yè)績記錄，但日益認(rèn)為大基金自滿、昂貴。全球而言，規(guī)模為1億美元至5億美元之間的中間層基金受益最大。資本凈流入達(dá)264億美元。與年初資產(chǎn)之比高于其他任何類別——規(guī)模小于2000萬美元的基金除外。

Investors tend to chase returns. They risk coming late to the party. Distressed debt strategies are one of the most successful strategies so far this year. But Lai Xiaomin, CEO of Huarang Asset Management, set up in 1999 to deal with bad debt of China’s commercial banks, has said the market is in a bubble.

投資者傾向于追逐回報(bào)。他們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于加入派對已經(jīng)太遲。不良債務(wù)策略是今年迄今最成功的策略之一。但1999年成立的處理中國商業(yè)銀行壞賬的中國華融資產(chǎn)管理公司的CEO賴小民表示，該市場正處于一個(gè)泡沫之中。

As Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index hits new post-financial crisis highs, it is probably a good thing that new entrants can only launch selectively. If the Asian hedge fund sector is overcoming a tendency for cyclicality — at least as defined by the number of fund launches — it is growing up.

隨著香港恒生指數(shù)(Hang Seng index)觸及自全球金融危機(jī)以來的最高點(diǎn)，新基金只能有選擇地推出很可能是件好事。如果說亞洲對沖基金行業(yè)正在克服周期性的傾向(至少按基金發(fā)行數(shù)量來界定是如此)，那就說明該行業(yè)在成長。