英國央行行長：英國退歐是“去全球化”實例
馬克•卡尼(Mark Carney)周一表示，英國退歐是去全球化(de-globalisation)的一個獨特例子，且隨著與歐盟的貿(mào)易關(guān)系被削弱，英國經(jīng)濟將受損，即使在英鎊近期貶值的影響消失后，仍會導(dǎo)致通脹壓力加大。
The Bank of England governor said that even though the intention of Brexit was not to close the UK off from the rest of the world that would initially be the main result because trade ties with Europe would be damaged and those with other countries would take time to grow.
英國央行(BoE)行長稱，盡管英國退歐的意圖并不是讓英國閉關(guān)鎖國，但這將成為退歐后初期的主要結(jié)果，因為英國與歐洲的貿(mào)易紐帶將遭到破壞，而與其他國家之間的貿(mào)易紐帶將需要時間才能成長。
This makes Brexit an example of “de-globalisation”, said Mr Carney, which would mean higher prices for consumers and the likelihood of higher interest rates to keep inflation under control.
卡尼表示，這使得英國退歐成為“去全球化”的一個例子，它對消費者而言將意味著物價上漲，還意味著通過加息來控制通脹的可能性。
Mr Carney was delivering the annual Camdessus lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington.
卡尼是在華盛頓舉行的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)年度康德蘇(Camdessus)講座上發(fā)表上述言論的。
Speaking about the past 50 years, he said the process of globalisation had led to lower inflation and lower interest rates in many countries. Better trade integration had improved the supply of goods, services and labour.
在談到過去50年的發(fā)展時，他表示，全球化進程降低了許多國家的通脹和利率。更完善的貿(mào)易一體化改善了商品、服務(wù)和勞動力的供應(yīng)。
Brexit, he said, was a “unique” experiment compared with this period. “It will be, at least for a period of time, an example of de-globalisation not globalisation,” added Mr Carney. “It will proceed rapidly not slowly. Its effects will not build by stealth but can be anticipated.”
他說，與這一時期相比，英國退歐是一個“獨特的”實驗。“至少在一段時間內(nèi)，它將成為去全球化、而非全球化的一個例子，”卡尼補充說，“它將快速(而非緩慢)推進。其影響不會悄悄累積，而是可以預(yù)見的。”
Saying that retaining existing trade links with the EU “may be challenging”, particularly in industries with integrated supply chains, Mr Carney said Brexit was likely to be inflationary and “these inflationary effects may be reinforced by developments in the labour market” as Britain shifts to a more restrictive immigration regime.
卡尼表示，保持與歐盟現(xiàn)有的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系“可能具有挑戰(zhàn)性”，尤其是在擁有一體化供應(yīng)鏈的行業(yè)。他表示，英國退歐很可能具有通脹效應(yīng)，而隨著英國轉(zhuǎn)向更加苛刻的移民制度，“這些通脹效應(yīng)可能會因勞動力市場的變化而被強化”。
He added that productivity was likely to be hit. “It is critical to recognise that Brexit represents a real shock about which monetary policy can do little,” said Mr Carney, in a tough message to politicians that they should not look to the BoE to get them out of any economic difficulties.
他補充說，生產(chǎn)率可能會受到打擊?？岜硎荆?ldquo;至關(guān)重要的是要認(rèn)識到，英國退歐代表著一場真正的沖擊，而貨幣政策對此幫不了什么。”他向政界人士發(fā)出的強烈信號是，他們不應(yīng)指望英國央行幫助他們擺脫任何經(jīng)濟困難。
“The actual impact [on productivity] will depend on how quickly any lost access to European and third country markets can be replaced.”
“(對生產(chǎn)率)的實際影響將取決于能夠多快置換失去的歐洲及第三國市場準(zhǔn)入。”
His warning that Brexit was likely to prove inflationary did not relate to the current rise in consumer prices, which has been fuelled by the fall in sterling since the UK vote to leave in the EU last year.
卡尼發(fā)出的有關(guān)英國退歐很可能被證明具有通脹效應(yīng)的警告，與當(dāng)前的消費價格上漲無關(guān)，后者是去年英國公投決定退歐后英鎊貶值的結(jié)果。
Instead his remarks were focused on how the UK’s weaker trade ties after Brexit would limit the speed at which the economy could expand. Any growth after Brexit would therefore be more inflationary than before, and require higher interest rates.
相反，他的言論聚焦于退歐后英國更弱的對外經(jīng)貿(mào)聯(lián)系將如何限制英國經(jīng)濟擴張的速度。因此，英國退歐后的任何增長，都將產(chǎn)生比以往更大的通脹效應(yīng)，并要求更高的利率。
Mr Carney noted the BoE Monetary Policy Committee had cut interest rates after the EU referendum, but now the initial shock of the Brexit decision had passed.
卡尼指出，英國央行貨幣政策委員會(BoE Monetary Policy Committee)在退歐公投后下調(diào)了利率，但如今，退歐決定帶來的最初沖擊已經(jīng)過去。
In a hawkish message, he added: “This stimulus is working . . . as a consequence the trade-off between inflation and spare capacity is diminishing.”
他帶著鷹派口吻補充說：“這一刺激正在發(fā)揮作用……其后果是，通脹和閑置產(chǎn)能之間的取舍關(guān)系正在消失。”
Mr Carney was not seeking to talk up the pound. He said that after Brexit, sterling would reflect changes in the UK’s terms of trade, among other things.
卡尼無意通過言論來提振英鎊匯率。他表示，英國退歐后，英鎊將反映出英國貿(mào)易條件等情況的變化。
