英國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)：英國(guó)退歐是“去全球化”實(shí)例

Brexit is a unique example of de-globalisation that will hurt Britain’s economy as trade ties with the EU are weakened, leading to higher inflationary pressures even after the effect of sterling’s recent depreciation disappears, Mark Carney said on Monday.

馬克•卡尼(Mark Carney)周一表示，英國(guó)退歐是去全球化(de-globalisation)的一個(gè)獨(dú)特例子，且隨著與歐盟的貿(mào)易關(guān)系被削弱，英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將受損，即使在英鎊近期貶值的影響消失后，仍會(huì)導(dǎo)致通脹壓力加大。

The Bank of England governor said that even though the intention of Brexit was not to close the UK off from the rest of the world that would initially be the main result because trade ties with Europe would be damaged and those with other countries would take time to grow.

英國(guó)央行(BoE)行長(zhǎng)稱，盡管英國(guó)退歐的意圖并不是讓英國(guó)閉關(guān)鎖國(guó)，但這將成為退歐后初期的主要結(jié)果，因?yàn)橛?guó)與歐洲的貿(mào)易紐帶將遭到破壞，而與其他國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易紐帶將需要時(shí)間才能成長(zhǎng)。

This makes Brexit an example of “de-globalisation”, said Mr Carney, which would mean higher prices for consumers and the likelihood of higher interest rates to keep inflation under control.

卡尼表示，這使得英國(guó)退歐成為“去全球化”的一個(gè)例子，它對(duì)消費(fèi)者而言將意味著物價(jià)上漲，還意味著通過(guò)加息來(lái)控制通脹的可能性。

Mr Carney was delivering the annual Camdessus lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington.

卡尼是在華盛頓舉行的國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)年度康德蘇(Camdessus)講座上發(fā)表上述言論的。

Speaking about the past 50 years, he said the process of globalisation had led to lower inflation and lower interest rates in many countries. Better trade integration had improved the supply of goods, services and labour.

在談到過(guò)去50年的發(fā)展時(shí)，他表示，全球化進(jìn)程降低了許多國(guó)家的通脹和利率。更完善的貿(mào)易一體化改善了商品、服務(wù)和勞動(dòng)力的供應(yīng)。

Brexit, he said, was a “unique” experiment compared with this period. “It will be, at least for a period of time, an example of de-globalisation not globalisation,” added Mr Carney. “It will proceed rapidly not slowly. Its effects will not build by stealth but can be anticipated.”

他說(shuō)，與這一時(shí)期相比，英國(guó)退歐是一個(gè)“獨(dú)特的”實(shí)驗(yàn)。“至少在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，它將成為去全球化、而非全球化的一個(gè)例子，”卡尼補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，“它將快速(而非緩慢)推進(jìn)。其影響不會(huì)悄悄累積，而是可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的。”

Saying that retaining existing trade links with the EU “may be challenging”, particularly in industries with integrated supply chains, Mr Carney said Brexit was likely to be inflationary and “these inflationary effects may be reinforced by developments in the labour market” as Britain shifts to a more restrictive immigration regime.

卡尼表示，保持與歐盟現(xiàn)有的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系“可能具有挑戰(zhàn)性”，尤其是在擁有一體化供應(yīng)鏈的行業(yè)。他表示，英國(guó)退歐很可能具有通脹效應(yīng)，而隨著英國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)向更加苛刻的移民制度，“這些通脹效應(yīng)可能會(huì)因勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的變化而被強(qiáng)化”。

He added that productivity was likely to be hit. “It is critical to recognise that Brexit represents a real shock about which monetary policy can do little,” said Mr Carney, in a tough message to politicians that they should not look to the BoE to get them out of any economic difficulties.

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，生產(chǎn)率可能會(huì)受到打擊?？岜硎荆?ldquo;至關(guān)重要的是要認(rèn)識(shí)到，英國(guó)退歐代表著一場(chǎng)真正的沖擊，而貨幣政策對(duì)此幫不了什么。”他向政界人士發(fā)出的強(qiáng)烈信號(hào)是，他們不應(yīng)指望英國(guó)央行幫助他們擺脫任何經(jīng)濟(jì)困難。

“The actual impact [on productivity] will depend on how quickly any lost access to European and third country markets can be replaced.”

“(對(duì)生產(chǎn)率)的實(shí)際影響將取決于能夠多快置換失去的歐洲及第三國(guó)市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入。”

His warning that Brexit was likely to prove inflationary did not relate to the current rise in consumer prices, which has been fuelled by the fall in sterling since the UK vote to leave in the EU last year.

卡尼發(fā)出的有關(guān)英國(guó)退歐很可能被證明具有通脹效應(yīng)的警告，與當(dāng)前的消費(fèi)價(jià)格上漲無(wú)關(guān)，后者是去年英國(guó)公投決定退歐后英鎊貶值的結(jié)果。

Instead his remarks were focused on how the UK’s weaker trade ties after Brexit would limit the speed at which the economy could expand. Any growth after Brexit would therefore be more inflationary than before, and require higher interest rates.

相反，他的言論聚焦于退歐后英國(guó)更弱的對(duì)外經(jīng)貿(mào)聯(lián)系將如何限制英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張的速度。因此，英國(guó)退歐后的任何增長(zhǎng)，都將產(chǎn)生比以往更大的通脹效應(yīng)，并要求更高的利率。

Mr Carney noted the BoE Monetary Policy Committee had cut interest rates after the EU referendum, but now the initial shock of the Brexit decision had passed.

卡尼指出，英國(guó)央行貨幣政策委員會(huì)(BoE Monetary Policy Committee)在退歐公投后下調(diào)了利率，但如今，退歐決定帶來(lái)的最初沖擊已經(jīng)過(guò)去。

In a hawkish message, he added: “This stimulus is working . . . as a consequence the trade-off between inflation and spare capacity is diminishing.”

他帶著鷹派口吻補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“這一刺激正在發(fā)揮作用……其后果是，通脹和閑置產(chǎn)能之間的取舍關(guān)系正在消失。”

Mr Carney was not seeking to talk up the pound. He said that after Brexit, sterling would reflect changes in the UK’s terms of trade, among other things.

卡尼無(wú)意通過(guò)言論來(lái)提振英鎊匯率。他表示，英國(guó)退歐后，英鎊將反映出英國(guó)貿(mào)易條件等情況的變化。